What is the expected timeline of news events coming from Aminex PLC during the coming twelve months. i.e. events that may trigger a lift in the SP! What sort of lift (% wise) might each news item bring? Given the current known assets where might we expect the value to be?
So, how do the triggers stack up against what we have seen historically in small cap energy stocks...
Taking into account Aminex’s own projections of $40m net cash flow potential, I have looked at the possibility of achieving 10p per share under both conservative and bull-case scenarios
The following percentages were based on typical small-cap reaction patterns in frontier gas developments—not strictly on cash flow modelling.
✅ Can These SP Rises Happen?
| Event | Likely SP Impact | Justified by Fundamentals? |
|---|---|---|
| Ground breaking | 20–30% | Partially—triggers confidence |
| CH-1 Spud | 30–50% | Yes—tied to future cash flows |
| CH-1 Success | 50–80% | Yes—confirms resource potential |
| First Gas | 70–100% | Strongly—actual revenue begins |
| Condensate Sales | 30–50% | Yes—adds new revenue stream |
| Resource Upgrade | 30–60% | Only if tied to faster monetisation |
| Buyout Speculation | 100–200% | Market-driven, not model-driven |
🧠Final View
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These catalysts can move the price strongly—but the justification for long-term value >10p/share requires optimism beyond what current 5-year cash flows support.
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In short: 10p is possible, especially on momentum—but sustainable only with new news, either from condensate, strategic deals, or expanded reserves, which we do expect.
On Friday 11th July 2025 the price closed at 1.48p with a bid price of 1.4p. Assuming the 7 event triggers achieve the rises predicted above; based on the those percentages, what might the SP closing price be? Both Worst and Best case scenarios...
If all seven major catalysts are successful and the share price reacts as expected, then:
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Worst-case cumulative share price: ~19.9p
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Best-case cumulative share price: ~74.8p
These are compound gains based on historical and speculative reaction ranges—not purely fundamentals. That said, these numbers show how speculative small-cap energy stocks can move dramatically with the right momentum.
Personally I think the first six events are all possible within the next 12 to 18 months, the seventh event is not something I see happening right now but it can't be ruled out long term, however that could be at a much higher SP than we currently have. Even without the seventh event we could be looking slightly under 10p from the worst case figures in a very short space of time.
Conclusion: There are lots of minor triggers that can build momentum throughout the year and I feel 10p per share is achievable and particularly if the news flow from here remains strong. With the AGM taking place next week, it is likely we will have an update on the FFD plans which could see another surge in price. With EPC pipeline contract announced only 11 days ago we have already seen 23% rise from 1.2p to 1.48p and reading elsewhere, Grok AI is predicting the SP to reach 1.59p within the next fourteen days. As I conclude 1.52 has just been paid.
NB: these percentage's are based on my own calculations and are not guaranteed figures. You should always do your own research and make your own decisions.