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Thursday, 4 September 2025

Aminex: Rig Strategy and Options for the Ntorya Drilling Campaign

From regional workhorses to ARA’s own fleet, what rigs could deliver the next phase at Ntorya — and when might they spud?

1. Why the Rig Choice Matters

With pipeline construction equipment due to mobilise this month and the Ntorya gas field poised for its next stage of development, investors are rightly asking: when will the next well be drilled, and which rig will do the job?

The answer lies in the rig tender now under way. PURA has approved the strategy, ARA has invited expressions of interest, and a range of options are now on the table.

2. Regional Candidates

Several rigs already in East and Southern Africa meet the technical requirements for CH-1 and the NT-1 workover (~1,000–1,500 HP, ~3–4 km depth capability):

  • Exalo Rig 202 – currently warm-stacked with Invictus Energy in Zimbabwe. Its two-year extension (signed Dec 2023) suggests availability by late 2025, aligning neatly with Ntorya’s timeline.

  • PR Marriott rigs (Kenya) – long track record with Tullow and active in East Africa. A credible bidder with mobilisation experience across the region.

  • Nabors rigs (Uganda) – working with Total and CNOOC on Tilenga/Kingfisher, these are world-class units that may rotate out as Ugandan projects mature.

  • Chinese rigs – subsidiaries of Sinopec and CNPC often respond to tenders in the region; they can field suitable units if scheduled availability matches

It’s also possible that a Chinese drilling rig could ultimately be selected. With CPPE and CPTDC already trusted to deliver the pipeline, and China’s wider history of energy infrastructure in Tanzania, investors may wonder if this confidence extends to drilling services too. While the pipeline award does not automatically link to a drilling contract — these are separate scopes of work — the idea of a CNPC or Sinopec drilling unit entering the tender is credible. If it happened, it would underline Tanzania’s comfort with Chinese delivery capacity, while still leaving room for strong competition from Exalo, PR Marriott, Nabors, and others.

3. The ARA Oman Option

ARA Petroleum also operates a fleet of rigs in Oman. In May 2025 they were running three concurrent rigs in Block 44. If Omani operations wind down, ARA could redeploy one of their rigs to Tanzania.

  • Pros: Full operator control, proven rigs, known crews.

  • Cons: Requires demobilisation, shipping to Mtwara, and land transport inland — at least 3+ months lead time.

While speculative, this option demonstrates ARA’s flexibility if regional rigs cannot be secured in time.

4. Timing — December or Early 2026?

  • December 2025: Possible if a regional rig (e.g., Exalo or Marriott) is freed quickly and mobilisation is fast-tracked.

  • January–February 2026: More realistic if tendering, contracting, and mobilisation take their usual course.

  • Alignment with pipeline: Either way, spudding before or during the early pipeline construction phase ensures CH-1 and NT-1 can contribute volumes once first gas flows in mid-2026.

5. Why Investors Should Be Confident

  • Multiple credible rig pools exist within East and Southern Africa.

  • ARA has its own fleet as a fall-back option, underscoring their commitment.

  • Timelines align with pipeline completion in July 2026 — ensuring gas can move to market.

📌 Closing Line:
“The next well at Ntorya is not a question of if, but when. With regional rigs available, ARA’s Omani fleet as a fall-back, and Tanzania’s regulators moving the process forward, the spud window is now clearly in sight — whether as early as December 2025 or into early 2026.”