Friday, 29 August 2025

What Is Aminex’s 0.4 Tcf of Gas Really Worth?

Breaking down Ntorya’s discovered resources, gas pricing, and billions in potential sales revenue.

Asking the Question

In our first two articles we compared Ntorya’s discovered gas with Cove Energy’s 2012 sale, and then explored the much larger basin upside. But let’s pause on a simpler, practical question:

“If Aminex’s share of Ntorya is ~0.4 Tcf recoverable, what could that actually be worth in revenue?”

The Price of Tanzanian Gas

Gas in Tanzania is not sold at global LNG prices but at regulated domestic tariffs. Still, the market is attractive because:

  • The Gas Sales Agreement (GSA) for Ntorya is already signed.

  • Demand is guaranteed: gas will feed directly into power plants and industrial users via the Madimba plant and national grid.

  • Industrial tariffs have been reported around $6.10 per thousand cubic feet (Mcf) — reflecting a blend of state-regulated pricing and the premium paid by industry.

  • For sensitivity, we can also consider a lower $4.00/Mcf base case (a conservative benchmark for domestic gas).

(Orca Exploration’s 2023 results showed average realised prices above $6, which reinforces the higher case as realistic.)

Step 1: How Much Gas is 0.4 Tcf?

  • 1 Tcf = 1,000,000,000,000 cubic feet.

  • 0.4 Tcf = 400,000,000,000 cubic feet.

  • In units of 1,000 cubic feet (Mcf):

    • 400,000,000,000 ÷ 1,000 = 400,000,000 Mcf.

Step 2: Apply the Prices

  • Base Case $4.00/Mcf

    • 400,000,000 Mcf × $4.00 = $1.6 billion gross revenue.

  • Higher Case $6.10/Mcf

    • 400,000,000 Mcf × $6.10 = $2.44 billion gross revenue.

So even Aminex’s 0.4 Tcf net discovered share alone could generate between $1.6bn and $2.4bn gross sales over the life of production.

Step 3: What Does That Mean for Aminex?

Of course, gross sales are not the same as free cash:

  • Tanzania’s Production Sharing Agreement (PSA) splits revenue with the government.

  • Capex and opex must be recovered.

  • Timings matter — revenues arrive over many years, not in one lump sum.

But the exercise shows something important:

  • Even using conservative domestic pricing, Aminex’s discovered gas represents a multi-billion-dollar gross revenue stream.

  • Against a current market cap of ~£80m (≈$100m), that scale looks highly attractive.

Step 4: The Benchmark

To put this in context:

  • Orca Exploration reported average realised gas prices of over $6/Mcf last year.

  • That aligns neatly with our $6.10/Mcf higher case.

  • It reinforces that Ntorya’s gas, once flowing, is likely to achieve pricing toward the higher end of our range.

Closing Thought

Asking “what is 0.4 Tcf worth?” shows why Ntorya is such a strategic asset. Even before considering the 16+ Tcf upside in the wider basin or the possibility of oil, Aminex’s discovered gas alone equates to billions of dollars in potential sales.

And with TPDC funding the pipeline and infrastructure in place, this value is not a theoretical number — it is linked directly to a contracted market hungry for supply.

For investors, that underlines the simple truth: Ntorya is underpinned by real demand, real contracts, and real scale — and the upside could be far greater.

Thursday, 28 August 2025

Aminex Update: Pipeline Procurement Underway and Rig Tender Process Accelerates

Following yesterday’s RNS, new disclosures confirm Expressions of Interest for rig services have already been issued — ahead of schedule.

Yesterday’s RNS: Two Key Milestones

On 27th August, Aminex released an RNS confirming significant operational progress at Ntorya:

  • Pipeline:

    • Contractors have begun procurement of pipe and equipment for the 35 km Ntorya–Madimba pipeline.

    • Mobilisation of construction equipment is scheduled for September 2025.

    • Groundwork and pipelaying are due to start in January 2026, with completion by July 2026.

  • Rig Tender:

    • The Petroleum Upstream Regulatory Authority (PURA) has approved the tender strategy for a drilling rig.

    • This approval enables drilling of Chikumbi-1 (CH-1) and a workover of Ntorya-1 (NT-1).

    • The RNS stated that Expressions of Interest (EOIs) from service contractors would be requested next week.

  • Condensate Discussions:

    • TPDC, APT, and Aminex also discussed the processing and storage of condensate, highlighting an additional revenue stream beyond gas sales.

Today’s Update: Ahead of Schedule

Less than 24 hours later, it has been confirmed via today’s release on X (formerly Twitter) that the Expressions of Interest have already been issued, a full week earlier than suggested in the RNS.

This over-performance signals:

  • Strong operator momentum from APT.

  • A clear alignment with Tanzanian regulators and stakeholders.

  • A demonstration that the project is moving faster than timelines originally set out.

Why This Matters for Investors

The combination of pipeline procurement, firm groundwork dates, and now the early launch of the rig tender process creates visible momentum on all fronts:

  • De-risked schedule: Procurement and mobilisation show the pipeline is firmly on track.

  • Accelerated rig contracting: The early release of EOIs means CH-1 and NT-1 are moving closer to execution.

  • Additional upside: Condensate monetisation discussions could provide another layer of value.

This update underscores the Government of Tanzania’s and APT’s commitment to delivering Ntorya gas to the Madimba plant on time — and potentially even ahead of schedule.

Closing Thought

Investors have long waited to see Ntorya move from planning into visible execution. With procurement underway, mobilisation imminent, and the rig tender already advancing faster than expected, that moment has arrived.

The project is not just progressing — it is gathering pace.


Beyond Ntorya: Unlocking the 16 Tcf Potential of the Ruvuma Basin

Why future drilling, deeper horizons, and even potential oil could transform Ntorya from a domestic gas play into a basin-scale energy hub.


From Discovered to Potential

In our previous article we compared Aminex’s current discovered share of Ntorya gas with Cove Energy’s position in Mozambique back in 2012. That comparison was based on today’s proven gas only — roughly 0.4 Tcf net to Aminex.

But Ntorya sits within the wider Ruvuma Basin, a structure that independent assessments and operator mapping suggest could hold 16 Tcf or more of unrisked gas potential.

This is where the real long-term opportunity lies.

Why Basin Potential Matters

Majors don’t just buy into what has already been booked. The Cove Energy bidding war showed that upside scale is what excites strategic buyers.

  • Cove’s 8.5% stake equated to ~5–6 Tcf net when sold.

  • If future drilling proves out Ruvuma’s 16+ Tcf potential, Aminex’s 25% stake could represent ~4 Tcf net.

  • That’s on par with Cove’s net interest — but onshore, with lower development costs and direct access to a growing domestic market.

The Jurassic Oil Angle

Ntorya’s story isn’t just about gas. During NT-2 drilling, oil traces were identified in the mud — evidence that deeper horizons could contain liquid hydrocarbons.

Originally, the Chikumbi-1 (CH-1) well was planned to target multiple stacked levels, including the deeper Jurassic formation. The revised location focuses only on gas, reflecting Tanzania’s immediate priority for domestic supply.

But in time, under Full Field Development (FFD), it is reasonable to expect that the Jurassic oil play will be revisited. If proven, this would add an entirely new dimension to Ntorya’s value.

Tanzania’s Strategic Positioning

Tanzania continues to strengthen its role as an emerging energy hub. Recent announcements of cooperation agreements with Russian firms on oil and gas data-sharing highlight how the country is seeking to attract wider international partnerships.

While this has no direct bearing on Ntorya’s near-term gas project, it underlines that global players are watching the basin — a positive backdrop for future growth and potential transactions.

The Bigger Picture for Investors

For Aminex shareholders, the significance is clear:

  • Current discovered gas underpins near-term production and cash flow.

  • Basin potential (16+ Tcf) could ultimately give Aminex’s 25% stake net exposure similar to what Cove Energy enjoyed at the time of its billion-pound sale.

  • Oil upside offers an additional prize that is not priced into today’s valuations.

  • Government and TPDC backing reduce financial risk on key infrastructure, keeping capital efficiency high.

Closing Thought

Ntorya today is about gas, CPF construction, and pipeline delivery. But Ntorya tomorrow could be about much more: multi-Tcf basin growth and the possibility of oil.

That dual track of secure near-term gas revenue and longer-term basin-scale upside is what makes the Ruvuma story compelling.

Just as Cove Energy’s 2012 sale proved, when majors see that scale — they act.

Wednesday, 27 August 2025

Aminex RNS: Ntorya Operations Update Confirms Pipeline and Rig Milestones

Procurement for the Ntorya–Madimba pipeline begins, groundwork scheduled for January, while PURA approves the rig tender strategy.

Key Highlights from Today’s RNS

  • Pipeline Progress:

    • Contractors have begun procurement of pipe and equipment for the 35 km pipeline linking Ntorya to the Madimba gas processing plant.

    • Mobilisation of construction equipment will begin in September 2025.

    • Groundwork and pipelaying are scheduled to commence in January 2026, with completion targeted by July 2026.

  • Condensate Value Addition:

    • Discussions are under way regarding the processing and storage of condensate volumes from Ntorya — an additional revenue stream beyond gas sales.

  • Rig Tender Milestone:

    • The Petroleum Upstream Regulatory Authority (PURA) has approved the tender strategy for contracting a drilling rig.

    • The rig will be used to drill Chikumbi-1 (CH-1) and perform a workover on Ntorya-1 (NT-1).

    • Operator APT will request expressions of interest from service contractors next week.

Why This Matters for Investors

This RNS confirms that multiple strands of Ntorya’s development are advancing in parallel:

  • Pipeline: With procurement already under way and a firm mobilisation schedule, the long-discussed link to Madimba has moved from planning to delivery. A clear timeline to completion by July 2026 provides investors with visibility.

  • Rig Tender: PURA’s approval is a regulatory green light that allows the operator to advance into contractor engagement. The drilling of CH-1 and the NT-1 workover will expand production capacity beyond NT-2, underpinning volumes for the GSA.

  • Condensate: Monetisation of condensate offers upside beyond gas sales, increasing the value of the project.

Together, these steps strengthen confidence that Ntorya is firmly on its way to first gas, with strong backing from TPDC, PURA, and APT.

Aminex Management Comment

Charles Santos, Executive Chairman, highlighted:

“Our discussions with the TPDC and the operator have been extremely fruitful, and we are delighted that activity on the Pipeline is proceeding as planned… PURA has approved the tender strategy, allowing APT to begin the tender process. These developments demonstrate again the Government of Tanzania’s strong commitment to this project.”

Investor Takeaway

This update provides:

  • Visible progress on the pipeline, with equipment procurement already started.

  • Firm dates for mobilisation (Sept 2025), groundwork (Jan 2026), and completion (July 2026).

  • Regulatory approval clearing the way for the rig tender and the next phase of drilling.

  • Condensate upside adding to the project’s revenue profile.

For shareholders, this RNS delivers the clearest evidence yet that Ntorya’s development is advancing on multiple fronts, backed by Tanzania’s institutions and operator commitment.

From Cove to Ntorya: What a Billion-Pound Gas Deal Could Mean for Aminex

How the Cove Energy sale in 2012 set a precedent — and what a cautious comparison suggests for Ntorya today.

Looking Back: The Cove Energy Deal

In 2012, Cove Energy became the centre of one of the oil and gas industry’s most closely watched bidding wars. The company held an 8.5% stake in Mozambique’s Ruvuma Offshore Area 1, where giant gas discoveries had been made.

Resource estimates at the time pointed to ~60–75 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of recoverable gas in Area 1, giving Cove a net interest of around 5–6 Tcf.

Both Shell and PTTEP competed fiercely for the prize. PTTEP eventually secured Cove with a £1.2bn ($1.9bn) offer, equal to about £1.8bn in today’s money.

The message was clear: when majors see scale and strategic importance, they are prepared to pay significant premiums.

How Ntorya Compares Today

Tanzania’s Ntorya gas development is at a different stage and scale, but shares some important parallels:

  • Onshore project with lower capital intensity, tied into the domestic grid.

  • Gas Sales Agreement in place to supply 40 MMscf/d in the first year.

  • Discovered resources of ~1.6–3.45 Tcf gas in place, equating to ~0.7–1.3 Tcf recoverable.

  • Aminex 25% stake gives it ~0.4 Tcf net recoverable gas today.

  • Pipeline funding covered by TPDC, reducing upfront capex risk for partners.

While smaller in absolute size than Ruvuma Offshore, Ntorya has the advantages of lower costs, faster route to market, and guaranteed domestic demand.

What a Yardstick Comparison Suggests

Cove’s 5–6 Tcf net stake was bought for £1.2bn. Aminex’s current discovered stake is smaller, but even if you apply Cove-style transaction multiples cautiously, it still points toward valuations in the hundreds of millions of dollars.

That compares with Aminex’s present ~£80m market cap — suggesting that as production ramps and reserves grow, there is room for meaningful upside.

Tanzania’s Strategic Context

Gas projects like Ntorya sit within a bigger picture. Tanzania is actively expanding its international energy partnerships, including a recent agreement to exchange data with Russian firms on oil and gas opportunities.

While this does not directly affect Ntorya’s early development, it underlines a key point: Tanzania’s energy sector is attracting global attention. That kind of strategic positioning can only strengthen investor confidence in the country’s long-term gas plans.

Why This Is Just the Beginning

The comparison above is based only on discovered gas at Ntorya today. It does not include:

  • The 16+ Tcf unrisked potential identified in the wider Ruvuma Basin.

  • The possibility of oil in deeper Jurassic horizons, hinted at during NT-2 drilling.

These longer-term opportunities could transform Ntorya into a basin-scale energy story — just as Ruvuma Offshore did for Mozambique.

Closing Thought

Cove Energy showed that majors will pay heavily for scale and strategic gas.

Ntorya is not Cove: it is onshore, domestic-focused, and nearer to revenue. But even on a cautious yardstick, Aminex’s stake already points to valuations above today’s market price.

And importantly, this is only the beginning. In our next article, we will explore the much larger upside potential — from multi-Tcf basin resources to the possibility of oil — and why Ntorya could ultimately prove far more significant than today’s numbers suggest.

Tuesday, 26 August 2025

Aminex Ara Breaking Ground: Ntorya Moves Closer to First Gas

Visible steps are aligning as infrastructure, wells, and regulatory milestones converge toward production.

A Project Now in Motion

The Ntorya development in southern Tanzania is advancing step by step toward its goal of delivering gas into the national grid via the Madimba pipeline. With approvals secured, funding confirmed, and procurement of facilities under way, the project is steadily progressing along its critical path.

Investors are understandably keen to see “hard evidence” — rigs mobilising, welders on the pipeline, or CPF construction above ground. Those milestones are coming, but there is already much happening that gives confidence in the journey ahead.

Upcoming Milestones: The Roadmap Ahead

1. EPC Contract Awarded

The Engineering, Procurement, and Construction (EPC) contract for the 35 km pipeline has been officially awarded to China Petroleum Pipeline and China Petroleum Technology & Development Corporation. This ensures the pipeline’s delivery is now in the hands of experienced international contractors.

2. Pipeline Fully Funded

The pipeline construction is being fully financed by TPDC, the national petroleum corporation. This reduces financial risk for the operators and demonstrates the Tanzanian government’s strong commitment to bringing Ntorya gas to market.

3. NT-2 Extended Well Test & CPF Integration

NT-2 has been identified as the first producing well. An extended well test will confirm reservoir behaviour and fine-tune the CPF’s design specifications. Importantly, this does not delay CPF construction — procurement and enabling works can proceed in parallel, with the test results helping optimise the final equipment setup.

4. PURA Approval for Rig Tender

The regulator, PURA, is reviewing rig tender plans. Approval of this plan is a milestone in itself, as it enables the operator to issue the formal rig tender.

5. Rig Award and Mobilisation

Once the tender is awarded, a drilling rig will be mobilised. Its first task: drill CH-1 (Chikumbi-1). The same rig will then conduct a workover of NT-1. This is a crucial step in adding redundancy and ensuring multiple wells can feed into the CPF and pipeline.

6. CPF Civil Works and Site Preparation

The approved US$41 million budget includes the CPF, flowlines, manifolds, and fiscal meters. While there has been no formal announcement of CPF mobilisation, satellite imagery in the wider Ntorya area shows ground activity that could indicate early site preparation. This should be regarded as an educated observation, not official confirmation.

Such early groundwork is entirely consistent with the development sequence — clearing land, preparing foundations, and creating storage areas typically begin before heavy equipment arrives, ensuring a smooth transition into construction.

7. First Pipeline Welds

The first welds on the pipeline right-of-way will provide unmistakable, visible proof of progress. This is one of the clearest signals investors can look for as the project enters the physical build stage.

8. First Gas Flow

All of these steps lead to the same target: the delivery of 40 MMscf per day under the Gas Sales Agreement in the first contract year, with capacity to grow further.

Investor Takeaway

MilestoneWhat It Demonstrates
EPC awardedContractors in place, work authorised
Pipeline funding by TPDCFull state backing, no financial burden on operator
NT-2 extended testOptimises CPF design, not a blocker
PURA approval for rig tenderRegulatory progress, green light to issue tender
Rig award & mobilisationVisible drilling and well activity
CPF enabling worksSite preparation under way, consistent with plan
First pipeline weldsPhysical build begins in earnest
First gasContracted supply of 40 MMscf/d delivered

Conclusion

Ntorya is progressing through a clear sequence of milestones. Some are less visible than others, but each is a step toward first gas. With the pipeline EPC awarded, funding secured, and wells prepared for development, the project is firmly moving forward.

The next stages — rig mobilisation, CPF civil works, and the first pipeline weld — will provide the visual proof that investors are waiting for. From there, Ntorya transitions rapidly from preparation to production, with 40 MMscf/d contracted under the GSA and a scalable pathway for growth.

Monday, 25 August 2025

Ntorya Aminex ARA First Gas: Pathways to Production

How multiple wells and facilities could support the journey to first gas at Ntorya.

A Project Moving Forward

The Ntorya development in southern Tanzania continues to progress toward its goal of delivering gas into the national grid via the new 30 km pipeline to Madimba. With approvals, budgets, and land acquisition in place — and procurement of key facilities already under way — the project is steadily advancing along its critical path.

The Role of NT-2

Public updates to date have consistently named NT-2 as the first well scheduled to deliver gas into the new system. Flowline rights of way have been secured, and the well is expected to be ready in line with pipeline completion.

NT-2’s early contribution would demonstrate that the infrastructure works as designed and confirm the start of Ntorya’s commercial life.

Beyond NT-2: The Next Wells

While NT-2 is the immediate focus, there is a broader plan:

  • CH-1 (Chikumbi-1): a new well to be drilled with a conventional rig.

  • NT-1 Workover: returning one of the earlier discovery wells to production using the same rig once CH-1 is complete.

Land has already been acquired for the CH-1 pad, and all tubulars and wellhead equipment are ready. Regulatory agencies have indicated that they want the rig tender expedited — underlining the importance of getting CH-1 and NT-1 online quickly after NT-2.

Processing Facilities and Flowlines

The approved US$41 million development budget includes:

  • The Central Processing Facility (CPF) at Ntorya,

  • Flowlines and hook-ups for NT-1 and NT-2,

  • Gathering manifolds and fiscal metering.

This confirms that full upstream facilities are part of the current phase — not just temporary or mobile systems.

Looking at Possible Scenarios

Based on information released so far, there are several possible ways the project could unfold:

  1. NT-2 First Gas – As officially stated, NT-2 comes online first, delivering initial volumes into the CPF and pipeline.

  2. Reinforcement from CH-1 and NT-1 – These wells follow rapidly, ensuring that contractual volumes are comfortably met and sustained.

  3. Parallel Build-out – NT-2 begins the process, while CH-1 and NT-1 are accelerated to underpin production, giving the field multiple producing sources from an early stage.

All three scenarios lead to the same outcome: Ntorya gas flowing into the Madimba plant and on into the national grid.

Why This Matters for Investors

For investors, the key message is that Ntorya is not reliant on a single well. The project is structured with multiple paths to delivery, a fully funded facilities budget, and strong government support for expediting the programme.

Whether first gas flows solely from NT-2 or from a combination of NT-2, CH-1, and NT-1, the end result is the same — a producing gas field with infrastructure in place and a guaranteed market under the Gas Sales Agreement.

Closing Thought

Ntorya’s journey to first gas is not a straight line but a set of carefully managed options. That flexibility is a strength, giving the operator and Tanzania’s energy system more than one way to reach the finish line.

For investors, it is reassurance that the project has the resilience and scope to meet its commitments and deliver on its long-term promise.


Sunday, 24 August 2025

Aminex ARA From Field to Grid: Ntorya’s CPF and the Madimba Plant

 

How Tanzania’s two-stage gas system takes Ntorya’s production from the wellhead all the way to homes, power stations, and industry.

The Two Key Facilities

When Ntorya comes on stream, two plants will play essential but different roles in the journey of its gas. Understanding their functions helps investors see how the system is designed for both safety and scale.

1. The Ntorya CPF — Field-Level Processing

  • Location: At the Ntorya well cluster.

  • Role: First-stage treatment, making raw gas suitable for pipeline transport.

  • Functions:

    • Separation of gas, water, and condensates.

    • Removal of impurities (sand, liquids).

    • Dehydration to meet pipeline standards.

    • Compression to flow into the 30 km export line.

  • Capacity: Designed initially for ~40 MMscf/d, expandable toward 140–280 MMscf/d.

The CPF ensures Ntorya gas leaves the field safely and efficiently.

2. The Madimba Gas Processing Plant — National Hub

  • Location: Near Mtwara, on Tanzania’s southern coast.

  • Role: Central treatment and distribution point for southern Tanzania’s gas.

  • Functions:

    • Final treatment (removing CO₂, acid gases if present).

    • Metering and blending streams from different fields (Songo Songo, Mnazi Bay, Ntorya).

    • Dispatching gas into the national pipeline grid.

  • Capacity: ~210 MMscf/d, expandable.

Madimba ensures gas from multiple sources is blended, metered, and delivered into the grid — powering electricity generation, industries, and domestic users.

Why Both Are Needed

  • The CPF is field-specific — treating Ntorya gas at the source.

  • Madimba is system-wide — combining streams and delivering national supply.

  • Together, they provide a two-stage assurance: first, that Ntorya gas meets quality standards at source; second, that it is integrated seamlessly into Tanzania’s energy network.

Investor Perspective

  • The CPF is the critical path asset for Ntorya first gas.

  • Madimba is the assurance of market access — guaranteeing that once Ntorya flows, there is infrastructure ready to take it.

  • This dual system significantly reduces market risk: gas has both a path and a destination.

Saturday, 23 August 2025

Aminex Ara - Installing a Wellhead: How Ntorya’s CH-1 Will Be Brought Online

A closer look at the technology that connects the Aminex/Ara Ntorya wells to future production.

When people hear about drilling a new well, they often imagine the drilling rig but not what happens next. The wellhead is the crucial piece of equipment that sits at the surface and provides the link between the reservoir below and the flowlines leading to the CPF.

For Ntorya’s Chikumbi-1 (CH-1) well, it is understood that for Aminex / ARA the wellhead assembly has already been sourced and is ready for shipment, with long-lead tubulars stored at the NT-2 site. This preparation means that once the rig arrives, installation should follow a tried-and-tested sequence.

What is a wellhead?

A wellhead is the pressure-containing component at the top of a well. It:

  • Anchors the casing strings,

  • Provides the sealing system to contain pressure,

  • Creates the interface where a “Christmas tree” valve system is later installed,

  • Ensures the well can be safely connected to flowlines leading to processing facilities.

How is a wellhead installed?

The installation process involves:

  1. Running and cementing the casing strings.

  2. Placing the wellhead housing at surface level.

  3. Installing seals, connectors, and locking systems.

  4. Adding the mandrel and casing hanger to tie the casing into the wellhead.

  5. Finally, securing the blow-out preventer (BOP) above for continued drilling or workover operations.

This might sound technical, but in practice it’s a highly repeatable procedure, designed to be safe, efficient, and consistent across wells worldwide.

What equipment is used?

The type of wellhead ARA has sourced for Ntorya will likely be similar to the latest designs seen in industry animations:

  • Internal latch systems for secure connections,

  • Quick-connect features to reduce rig time,

  • Torque-through mandrels allowing safe, repeatable installation,

  • Scalable components so future wells can use the same proven system.

Why does this matter for investors?

  • The wellhead is a long-lead item — having it already prepared means a major risk is reduced.

  • Installing the wellhead correctly is the foundation for CH-1 production and the NT-1 workover that follows.

  • Visible progress at surface (wellhead installation) is one of the most reassuring milestones for any project.

Watch: How a Modern Wellhead is Installed


This 10-minute animated Video demonstrates how today’s wellhead systems are installed — the equipment at Ntorya will follow a very similar process, ensuring the project is using industry-standard, modern technology.

Closing thought

The wellhead may not grab headlines like a drilling rig or a 30 km pipeline, but it is every bit as important. For Ntorya, it is the starting point of safe production, a visible sign that long-prepared plans are moving forward.

Friday, 22 August 2025

Flowlines at Ntorya: How Wells Connect to the CPF

The smaller pipelines that quietly connect Ntorya’s wells to the Central Processing Facility — and why they matter for investors.

When investors picture Ntorya, they often think of the big pieces — the wells and the 30 km export line to Madimba. But the flowlines — the smaller pipelines that run from each well to the Central Processing Facility (CPF) — are just as vital. Without them, gas can’t move from the ground into the plant that prepares it for market.

What are flowlines?

Flowlines are short, steel pipelines laid mostly underground. Each one links a wellhead (NT-1, NT-2, CH-1 and the future drilling programme) to the CPF. At the CPF, the streams are combined, processed, and sent onwards through the export pipeline.

Think of them as the capillaries of the system: not as big or visible as the main artery to Madimba, but essential for delivering every molecule of gas to the plant.

How do they tie in?

  • At the wellhead: each producing well has a “Christmas tree” — the set of valves and fittings on the surface. From there, a flowline connection carries the gas into the ground and runs toward the CPF.

  • At the CPF: the lines converge into a small gathering manifold. From this header, gas enters the first separator at the CPF where liquids, water, and impurities are removed.

In some developments, nearby wells can be “clustered” into a shared line before reaching the CPF. At Ntorya, with up to 14 wells planned over the licence life, that decision will depend on final well locations and drilling sequence.

How big are the flowlines?

For individual wells producing in the 8–20 million cubic feet per day (MMscf/d) range:

  • Flowlines are typically 4 to 6 inches in diameter.

  • Over short distances (2–6 km), this size keeps pressure loss small and allows for internal inspection (“pigging”).

  • At the CPF, the combined flows enter a slightly larger 6–8 inch gathering header before processing.

For context, the main export pipeline to Madimba will be much larger — designed to carry 140 to 280 MMscf/d over 30 km.

How are flowlines installed?

  • Surveying & Right-of-Way: pegging a safe route across farmland and bush.

  • Trenching: digging a narrow trench, usually 1–1.5 m deep.

  • Stringing & Welding: laying out pipe sections, welding, inspecting, and coating.

  • Lowering & Backfilling: placing the welded line into the trench and carefully covering it over.

  • Testing: filling with water and pressure-testing before first gas.

This is the same method used worldwide for gathering systems, adapted for local conditions in southern Tanzania.

Why this matters for investors

  • Scalability: Each new well drilled can be tied in with its own flowline, building toward the 14-well, 140–280 MMscf/d target.

  • Visibility: Installation of flowlines is one of the most visible signs of progress — a physical link between the subsurface resource and the CPF.

  • Low risk technology: Flowline construction is proven, straightforward engineering with limited execution risk compared to drilling or CPF build.

  • Cost efficiency: Smaller lines keep costs controlled, while future connections can be phased in as production ramps up.

Closing thought

Flowlines don’t often make headlines. But they are the practical step that brings every new Ntorya well into the system. As more wells are drilled, each flowline tied into the CPF is another visible sign that Ntorya is moving steadily from promise to production.

For investors, watching the progression of well → flowline → CPF → export pipeline is the clearest way to track momentum toward first gas.

Thursday, 21 August 2025

Ntorya’s Central Processing Facility: What It Is and Why It Matters

Practical steps from wellhead to Madimba — what could happen next

When people think of Ntorya and Aminex, they picture wells and a pipeline. The Central Processing Facility (CPF) is the part in the middle that makes everything work. It’s where raw gas from the wells is prepared so it can safely and reliably enter the line to Madimba.

What a CPF does

At a high level, a CPF separates, conditions and compresses the gas:

  • separates water and liquids,

  • dries/conditions gas to pipeline specs,

  • compresses it so it can flow to Madimba.


How it connects to the wells

Each producing well (e.g., NT-1, NT-2, and CH-1) would be linked to the CPF by flowlines. The CPF combines these streams into a single, spec-gas export to the main pipeline. Capacity can be phased so more wells can be added over time.

Where it could be located

Public information points to a location within the wider Nanguruwe/Ntorya ward area so that flowlines are short and road access is sensible. The exact plot is typically confirmed through regulatory steps and company notices; until then, it’s reasonable to assume siting close to the existing well cluster and on a clean line of route toward Madimba.

About testing and why it matters

A mobile test on NT-2 has been discussed to help fine-tune the processing set-up (for example, dehydration and compression requirements). Final equipment specification would normally reflect those test results. In parallel, enabling works at the CPF site (groundworks, civils, fencing, early foundations) can progress ahead of final kit selection, with long-lead equipment orders typically following once test data and approvals are in hand.

Schedule at a glance (indicative)

Subject to approvals and site conditions:

  • Site preparation could proceed first (weeks to a few months).

  • Equipment procurement and installation would typically follow confirmatory testing/approvals.

  • Commissioning would then align with pipeline readiness so first gas can move without delay.

Team and logistics (typical ranges)

Based on similar onshore projects, peak on-site teams can be around 100–200 people, spanning civil, mechanical, E&I and commissioning, with local support for catering, logistics and security. Actual numbers vary with phasing and contractor strategy.

Budget context

Company guidance indicates the approved upstream facilities budget for this phase is intended to cover the CPF plus associated tie-ins, flowlines, manifolds and metering. Exact allocations are usually confirmed in subsequent updates and may be adjusted as testing and procurement progress.

Could start-up be modular?

Yes. A CPF can be delivered in modular packages (skid-mounted separation, dehydration and compression). This approach could enable phased start-up at lower initial rates while full capacity is built out, subject to approvals and commercial agreements.

Bottom line for investors
The CPF is the critical enabler between wells and pipeline. Enabling works may proceed while test results and approvals are finalised, and a modular, phased approach could support an earlier start if required. As company updates arrive (testing schedules, procurement awards, and first-weld milestones), they should help de-risk the timeline and confirm the path to first gas.

This article reflects current understanding and may evolve as formal notices and approvals are published.

Wednesday, 20 August 2025

From Field to Flame: Building the Ntorya–Madimba Gas Link

 

Charting Tanzania’s Next Step in Energy Security and Growth

When Tanzania granted a 25-year development licence for the Ntorya gas field, it marked the beginning of a project with national importance. Ntorya, in the Ruvuma Basin, contains multi-trillion cubic feet of natural gas and will be the source for the new 30 km pipeline linking it directly to the Madimba processing plant on the coast.

This isn’t just about steel in the ground. It’s about unlocking energy security, creating jobs, and building a long-term framework that rewards both the country and the companies developing the resource.

1. Preparing the Source – Ntorya Field

Before gas can flow, the operators (ARA Petroleum Tanzania and Aminex/Ndovu) must:

  • Drill and complete new production wells.

  • Install wellhead equipment and flowlines.

  • Build a central processing facility (CPF) to clean, condition, and compress the gas.

The CPF is the key that unlocks the project — the point where the raw resource becomes a reliable supply stream.

2. Where the Pipeline Begins

Because the Madimba gas plant already exists, construction of the new line is expected to start from the coastal end.

  • Crews will mobilise at Madimba where access roads, storage yards, and metering facilities are already in place.

  • A second team will move outward from Ntorya, preparing the line toward the centre.

  • The two spreads will eventually meet with the “golden weld” that completes the system.

This staged approach means visible progress at the coast, while upstream facilities at Ntorya are finalised.

3. Surveying, Trenching, and Welding

Once the route is cleared:

  • Surveyors peg the line.

  • Trenches are cut into farmland and bushland with environmental care.

  • Pipes are strung out, welded, x-rayed, and coated.

  • Sections are lowered into place and backfilled with soil.

4. Compression, Metering & Safety

  • At Ntorya, the CPF compresses gas into the line.

  • Along the route, valve stations provide monitoring and emergency shut-off capability.

  • At Madimba, a metering station ensures accurate accounting under the Gas Sales Agreement (GSA).

5. Testing & Commissioning

Before any commercial flow:

  • The pipeline is hydrotested with high-pressure water.

  • Sensors and inspections check integrity.

  • Regulators certify the system for use.

6. First Gas & Growth Path

The agreed sales profile provides certainty:

  • Initial 40 MMscf/d in the first contract year.

  • Expansion toward 140 MMscf/d in later years as infrastructure ramps up.

This structured growth path allows investors to see immediate revenue with clear upside capacity.

7. Why It Matters

  • Certainty of Market: The GSA with TPDC guarantees offtake.

  • Government Alignment: Tanzania has amended the PSA and committed to building the link to Madimba.

  • Long-Term Stability: A 25-year licence underpins project economics.

  • National Impact: Jobs, community engagement, and new energy supplies for southern Tanzania.

Closing Thought

The Ntorya–Madimba pipeline is more than an engineering project — it’s a strategic bridge. It links the resource potential of the Ruvuma Basin with the processing power of Madimba and the demand of the national grid.

For Tanzania, it secures energy and economic growth.
For investors, it offers a project with clarity, alignment, and visible momentum.

Wednesday, 13 August 2025

TPDC’s Coastal Gas Push: 2000+ Industries, 102 km Pipeline, and the Strategic Role of Ntorya

 

President’s official announcement signals a major acceleration in Tanzania’s domestic industrial gas demand — here’s why it matters for investors.

1. The Announcement: Straight from the Top

On her official Facebook account, Tanzania’s President has outlined an ambitious new natural gas initiative.
Frame-by-frame translation of the video text reveals:

  • “TPDC opens doors of 2000+ industries to natural gas on the coast”

  • “TPDC to build 102 km pipeline from Dar es Salaam to Chalinze”

  • “2000+ industries to be established in Kwala Strategic Zone”

This is not speculative commentary. It’s a direct communication from the country’s highest political office, signalling official intent and policy direction.

2. Project Overview

The announcement contains three intertwined elements:

  1. 102 km Gas Pipeline (Dar es Salaam → Chalinze)

    • Extends the existing national gas grid north from Dar.

    • Likely to connect with or support future Dar–Mombasa pipeline plans.

    • Includes a branch to Kwala for industrial supply and export handling.

  2. Kwala Strategic Industrial Zone

    • Envisioned as a major manufacturing hub with 2000+ industries.

    • Positioned as a cornerstone of Tanzania’s industrialisation and export strategy.

  3. Integration with Regional Energy Trade

    • Although not stated in the video, previous planning documents have referenced the Dar–Mombasa subsea pipeline (with connections to Tanga and Zanzibar), indicating regional export ambitions.

3. Why This Matters: The Demand Shock

The scale of ambition is enormous.
For context:

  • In August 2024, TPDC reported only 56 industries connected to the national gas system.

  • Moving from 56 to 2000+ represents a 35-fold increase in industrial connections.

  • Even at a conservative 1 MMscf/d per industry, this would imply 2000 MMscf/d of new industrial demand — multiples of Tanzania’s current total production.

4. Current Supply Reality

Existing Production

  • Songo Songo: Small offshore field; mature and declining.

  • Mnazi Bay: Producing but with limited reserves and long-standing commercial disputes.

Offshore LNG Megaprojects

  • Shell and Equinor-led developments remain in negotiation stage.

  • First gas unlikely before the early 2030s.

Implication

The government’s own timelines for industrial build-out mean it cannot wait for offshore LNG.
It must rely on near-term, scalable, onshore resources — and that puts Ntorya in the spotlight.

5. Ntorya’s Strategic Position

  • Resource scale: Independent estimates show Ntorya’s gas in place sufficient for multi-decade supply at hundreds of MMscf/d.

  • Infrastructure: Pipeline to Madimba under EPC contract, with CNPC leading — first gas expected mid-2026.

  • Commercial terms: Aminex fully carried to ~$40m net, with a more favourable PSA than industry norms.

  • Market linkage: Named as primary supplier for the Mtwara LNG project (400 → 1,200 MMscf/d).

  • Ramp-up plan: 14-well programme targeting 420 MMscf/d capacity.

6. From Dar to Kwala: The Corridor Effect

The new Dar–Chalinze pipeline creates an industrial corridor:

  • Dar: Tanzania’s commercial hub.

  • Chalinze: Strategic road and rail junction.

  • Kwala: New manufacturing and logistics hub.

This corridor could act as a gas demand anchor in the same way industrial zones drive pipeline economics in other countries. Once in place, the network can:

  • Supply large anchor customers.

  • Spur smaller industrial users along the route.

  • Serve as a feed point for regional exports to Kenya and beyond.


7. Investment Implications

Short-Term

  • The President’s announcement provides political cover for accelerating infrastructure approvals.

  • Market sentiment could improve as investors see government-backed demand pipelines emerging in parallel with Ntorya’s development.

Medium-Term

  • Demand growth in the Kwala zone could outpace initial Ntorya production, giving Aminex and its partners strong pricing leverage — especially for industrial sales (which Orca’s 2024 data shows average $8.45/MMBtu).

Long-Term

  • If the 2000+ industry target is even half-met, Tanzania will require multiple hundreds of MMscf/d of new supply, creating room for both domestic sales and LNG exports.

  • Ntorya could transition from being one supplier among many to being the critical swing producer in the domestic market.

8. Risks and Realism

  • Execution risk: Government timelines for industrial build-out have historically slipped.

  • Funding: The 69.6 billion shilling allocation for the 102 km pipeline (~$26.5M USD) covers construction but not necessarily all ancillary infrastructure.

  • Demand pacing: While 2000+ industries is the target, actual connections will likely ramp gradually.

However, policy intent is clear, and the infrastructure moves are real enough to warrant investor attention now.

9. Bottom Line for Investors

The President’s public endorsement of a 102 km coastal pipeline and a 2000+ industry Kwala zone signals a new phase in Tanzania’s energy and industrial policy.
For Aminex and Ntorya, it means:

  • Locked-in demand growth that fits perfectly with Ntorya’s production timeline.

  • Pricing upside from industrial sales into a market with tightening supply.

  • Strategic positioning as the only near-term, large-scale onshore resource capable of meeting these targets.

At today’s sub-2p share price, the market is valuing Aminex as if these policy shifts didn’t exist. If execution follows even half of the announced plan, that disconnect won’t last.

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