From 80p to £1.35: Rising Gas Prices Supercharge Ntorya’s Valuation Potential

 

Orca’s 2024 realised prices reveal a higher-value demand mix, doubling Aminex’s projected upside in the 14-well scenario.

When we modelled Ntorya’s long-term value earlier this year, our 14-well, 420 MMscfd case used conservative gas prices of $3.50–$5.50/MMBtu. That produced impressive numbers — with some scenarios approaching 80p per share.

But the latest Orca Energy 2024 annual report changes the game. It shows:

• Gas-to-power: $3.88/MMBtu

• Gas-to-industry: $8.45/MMBtu

• Weighted average realised: $4.95/MMBtu

Many of Ntorya’s likely buyers — CNG stations, GTL, fertilizer, LNG trucking hubs — fall into the higher-priced industrial category. Using blended scenarios based on Orca’s real-world data lifts our projections dramatically:

• 50/50 industrial/power blend = $6.17/MMBtu

• 70% industrial blend = $7.08/MMBtu

• 80% industrial blend = $7.54/MMBtu

Applying these to our 14-well, 420 MMscfd case with a 40% effective cash entitlement to Aminex, the implied share price potential jumps from ~80p to as high as £1.35 at standard market earnings multiples.

This isn’t pie-in-the-sky speculation — it’s grounded in realised Tanzanian gas prices from a peer producer and in Ntorya’s planned production profile. With the Mtwara LNG project naming Ntorya as its primary supply source and multiple high-value industrial markets lining up, the revenue mix could lean heavily toward premium-priced sales.

For investors, the takeaway is simple: as the demand mix shifts towards industry and transport, Ntorya’s economics strengthen — and the gap between current market price and intrinsic value widens.

Updated Orca-Based Valuation:

Our original 14-well, 420 MMscfd projections used conservative gas price assumptions of $3.50–$5.50/MMBtu. However, Orca Energy’s 2024 report confirms a weighted average realised price of $4.95, with a $3.88/Mcf gas-to-power rate and an $8.45/Mcf gas-to-industry rate. Applying blended scenarios of $6.17 (50/50), $7.08 (70% industrial), and $7.54 (80% industrial) lifts projected share price outcomes significantly across all market multiples. At the upper end, the industrial-heavy blends more than double the implied valuation compared to our earlier chart, reinforcing the bullish case for Ntorya’s earnings potential as higher-value industrial demand ramps up.

Tanzania’s Energy Infrastructure Surge Sets the Stage for Explosive Gas Demand

EWURA’s 109-permit wave, CNG expansion, and major industrial projects point to a multi-year growth engine for Ntorya gas.

Tanzania’s downstream energy build-out is gathering serious momentum. The Energy and Water Utilities Regulatory Authority’s (EWURA) latest Batch 244 public notice lists 109 mid- and downstream petroleum permit applications, covering:

• Kibali cha Ujenzi wa Kituo cha Mafuta – construction permits for fuel stations

• Leseni ya Kituo cha Mafuta – licences to operate fuel stations

• Leseni ya Usambazaji wa Gesi ya Kupikia – explicit LPG distribution licences

• Other infrastructure-related activities

While the notice does not explicitly label these stations as CNG, the timing, policy direction, and presence of known energy brands such as Puma Energy suggest that many could be CNG-capable — aligning with the government’s goal for a majority-CNG vehicle fleet by 2050.

This is in addition to seven CNG stations already under construction, mobile CNG units being rolled out, Rashal Energies’ plan for 30 CNG stations, and Gazprom’s reported market entry. The transport fuel mix is evolving fast — and CNG infrastructure can be built in months, not years.

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Why This Matters for Gas Demand

Even at a conservative average of 2 MMscf/d per site, if a significant share of these 109 permitted stations are CNG-capable, they could add well over 150 MMscf/d of demand once operational. This is highly modular demand that can scale quickly, complementing larger, longer-lead projects.

CNG is only one part of the demand stack. Other confirmed and emerging gas consumers include:

• Aspin Energy / Escom Power Plant (Malawi) – 142 MW natural gas-fired plant using Tanzanian gas from March 2026 (~30 MMscf/d)

• Rocky Mountain GTL Plant – $420M gas-to-liquids facility producing diesel and jet fuel (~25–30 MMscf/d)

• ESSA Fertilizer Plant – Targeting 70 MMscf/d by 2027–2029, potentially supplementing Mnazi Bay supply

• Mtwara LNG Project – $4.5B state-backed export and regional distribution hub, starting at 400 MMscf/d and scaling to 1,200 MMscf/d, with Ntorya named as primary supplier

Taken together, these represent layered, long-term, and scalable demand — reducing offtake risk for upstream producers and creating multiple market channels.

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Aminex’s Strategic Position

For Aminex and its carried 25% interest in the Ntorya field, the convergence of infrastructure rollout and industrial demand is transformational:

• Fully carried to ~$40M net, removing capital burden in development

• Favourable PSA terms compared to industry norms, increasing effective revenue share

• Pipeline to Madimba under construction, de-risking first gas timelines

• Direct link to high-value offtake via Mtwara LNG and industrial markets

With scalable production — and the ability to grow beyond 280 MMscf/d — Aminex sits at the heart of Tanzania’s domestic energy transition and export growth ambitions.

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Investor View: More Than Just “Potential”

The EWURA permit wave is not an aspirational policy statement — it is a regulatory step that clears the way for real companies spending real capital on fuel and gas infrastructure. Add in signed EPC contracts, pipeline works, and the state-backed LNG plan naming Ntorya as a primary supplier, and you have tangible progress.

Near-term catalysts include:

• Physical confirmation of pipeline ground-breaking

• PURA approval to accelerate the Chikumbi-1 rig tender

• Additional industrial offtake agreements

With the current share price still below 2p, these could drive sharp re-ratings.

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Bottom line:
Tanzania’s downstream build-out, rising industrial gas prices, and LNG export positioning create a market capable of absorbing — and paying premium rates for — every molecule Ntorya can produce. For Aminex, the building blocks for a multi-year growth story are already falling into place.

Aminex: 14-Well Expansion Could Catapult Share Price Beyond 80p

 

With Ntorya gas confirmed as the backbone of Tanzania’s $4.5B LNG vision, Aminex stands poised for a revaluation of historic proportions.

As Tanzania’s energy strategy pivots toward large-scale LNG production, Aminex PLC stands on the verge of a remarkable revaluation. With the newly announced Mtwara LNG project citing the Ntorya gas field as a primary supply source, and plans underway for 14 production wells over the next decade, the fundamentals have shifted dramatically.

Aminex’s carried interest through development, paired with favorable PSA terms, means it could capture as much as 40% of net revenues — far higher than traditional assumptions.

🔍 Projection Highlights

Under a 420 MMscfd production scenario and gas prices ranging from $3.50 to $5.50/MMBtu, share price projections rise sharply based on standard market multiples:

Gas Price ($/MMBtu)	10× Multiple	15× Multiple	20× Multiple
$3.50	42.92p	64.39p	85.85p
$4.50	55.19p	82.78p	110.37p
$5.50	67.46p	101.18p	134.91p

This scenario aligns perfectly with the planned 2026 start of the LNG facility — right as Ntorya begins delivering gas. These projections exclude further upside from condensate sales, carbon credits, or direct-to-industry CNG supply.

In short: the market may be waking up late, but the rerating potential is real, visible, and rapidly approaching a potentially huge ROI.

So let us finish with an important question...

🔍 How Realistic Are 10×, 15×, or 20× Earnings Multiples for Aminex?

✅ 10× Multiple: Conservative but Reasonable

• Widely used for small-cap producers in emerging markets.

• Reflects risks like political environment, currency, and market liquidity.

• Yes, this is realistic, especially post–first gas when cash flow is proven.

✅ 15× Multiple: Aspirational but Justifiable

• Used when:

  • Cash flow is secured via long-term contracts (LNG buyers, industrial offtake),

  • The company has no debt or is carried (like Aminex),

  • Visibility of production growth (14-well plan),

  • Strategic partnerships (TPDC backing, state-supported infrastructure).

• Given Aminex’s clean balance sheet and strategic role, 15× is attainable once production ramps and sentiment builds.

⚠️ 20× Multiple: Stretch, but Not Impossible

• This assumes:

  • Strong market rerating (likely during a retail/speculative surge),

  • Scarcity value (few similar plays in region),

  • Aggressive forecasts of expanded production or pricing upside (e.g., premium LNG contracts).

• Possible during inflection points or speculative runs (e.g., M&A interest, early buyout rumors), but not sustainable without consistent earnings delivery.

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🧠 Rule of Thumb

• Pre-production: Market uses lower multiples or discounts heavily (uncertainty).

• Early production: 8–10× is realistic if cash is flowing and infrastructure is visible.

• Growth + strategic leverage (like LNG export): 12–15× becomes likely.

• Speculative peaks / retail excitement / M&A buzz: 20×+ can happen — but rarely lasts.

Aminex Awakens: Fueling Tanzania’s Natural Gas Boom

 

Aminex PLC: At the Heart of Tanzania’s Gas Revolution

With booming domestic demand and a $4.5B LNG project citing Ntorya as a primary supply source, Aminex is poised for a transformational leap.

Aminex PLC is emerging as a quiet powerhouse in East Africa’s natural gas revolution, and recent developments suggest that the company may be significantly undervalued and underappreciated. With two major announcements shaking up the energy landscape in Tanzania, Aminex finds itself in a uniquely strategic position — one that could dramatically reshape its future and market perception.

Gas-Powered Public Transport: A Signal of Growing Demand

In a bold push toward sustainable urban mobility, Tanzania has welcomed the arrival of 99 new natural gas–powered buses — the first phase of a planned fleet of 755. These buses will serve Dar es Salaam’s expanding BRT network, with an additional 250 buses already confirmed for delivery.

This isn’t just about transport — it’s a strong signal from the Tanzanian government that natural gas is set to play a central role in the country’s energy strategy. This is the kind of demand surge that companies like Aminex, with proven gas reserves and infrastructure development underway, are perfectly positioned to meet. As public and private sectors transition toward cleaner energy, the local market for gas is heating up — and Aminex is right in the middle of it.

The Mtwara LNG Project: A Game-Changer

While the bus news is significant, the real game-changer is the newly announced Mtwara LNG project — a $4.5 billion mega-development with truly global ambitions. This isn’t a pipe dream. It’s a state-supported initiative involving key players such as Tanzania’s national petroleum corporation. And critically, Ntorya — the onshore gas field where Aminex holds a carried 25% interest — is listed as the primary supply source for this massive LNG and CNG infrastructure rollout.

The Mtwara project aims to start with 3 million tonnes per annum of LNG production (equivalent to around 400 million standard cubic feet of gas per day), scaling to 9 MTPA over time. It will serve both domestic and regional needs, with distribution hubs planned across Tanzania, Kenya, Zambia, the DRC, Mozambique, and beyond — even targeting exports to Asia. It’s a pan-African clean energy corridor with real momentum, and Aminex’s Ntorya field is the backbone.

Strategic Alignment and Market Potential

Put simply, Aminex is no longer just a junior energy company sitting on a gas discovery. It’s now a key player in Tanzania’s rapidly developing energy infrastructure — both for domestic consumption and international export. With its costs covered through carried interest, its resource positioned near the coast, and a state-endorsed demand engine forming around it, Aminex is ideally placed for long-term success.

For investors, this is a rare moment: the stars are aligning, and the market has yet to fully catch on. Aminex’s story is no longer just about proven reserves — it’s about strategic importance, national energy transformation, and regional opportunity.

As Tanzania turns up the heat on gas-led development, Aminex may well be one of the sector’s biggest beneficiaries.

Aminex Unofficial Reaching Larger Audiences

An AI review of our post reach and distribution over the last 7 days since we pushed for share via quote with comments and using generated memes.

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Given you have 485 followers, getting 8000 impressions in 7 days on Aminex-related memes and news is very solid performance — especially for a niche investment topic.

Here’s why:

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📊 What This Likely Means:

• Your content is being shared, quote-tweeted, or picked up by search algorithms or hashtags.

• You’re reaching beyond your base — probably 10x your follower count in views.

• The memes are likely resonating emotionally or offering timely insights, which is ideal for engagement.

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🧠 Strategic Suggestions:

1. Double down: Post consistently (3–5x/week) — memes, charts, short takes.

2. Track what works: Use X Analytics to see what formats (memes, charts, polls) are gaining the most traction.

3. Reply to big accounts in the energy/investing space with your memes (non-spammy) — that boosts discovery.

4. Pin your highest performer to your profile.

5. Use hashtags like #Aminex, #Ntorya, #OilAndGas, #TanzaniaEnergy.

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🚀 Goal:

With continued momentum, 8000 impressions could scale to 20–50K per post with consistent engagement and a few viral hits.

You're definitely on the right track — keep going!

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The above much improved results are down to you, so a big thank you for your help in sharing the message.  The wider the audience we reach, the more potential investors we attract!

Good Luck to all Holders

💥 Why Aminex’s PSA Is Superior:

 

Lessons from PAET’s Disadvantageous Deal

One of the most overlooked factors in the energy investment space is the profit-sharing structure within Production Sharing Agreements (PSAs). A compelling comparison can be made between Aminex and Orca’s subsidiary Pan African Energy Tanzania (PAET)—and it shows just how advantaged Aminex really is.

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⚠️ PAET’s PSA: Complex, Outdated, and Unfavourable

The PSA signed in 2001 between the Tanzanian government and PAET is widely regarded as one of the most complex and least favourable ever agreed. It is not remotely comparable to the modern, commercially fair terms under which Aminex operates.

Here’s why:

❗Protected Gas: ~30% Given Away for Free

Under PAET’s PSA:

• PAET is required to supply up to 45.1 MMcf/d of “Protected Gas” to TPDC.

• This gas is given away at no revenue gain to PAET—TPDC provides it on a “no gain, no loss” basis.

• Result: Around 30% of PAET’s total production has generated no income in recent years.

⚙️ Step 2: Costs Are Recovered from Remaining Revenues

• PAET must recover all costs—even those related to Protected Gas and TPDC’s share—from the remainder of revenues.

• This shrinks profitability even further, especially in high-capex years.

💸 Step 3: Profit Sharing Still Favours TPDC

Even after costs:

• Profits are shared based on production tiers.

• At typical recent production rates (~85–95 MMcf/d), TPDC takes 45% of the remaining profit.

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📉 Despite These Challenges, PAET Made Money

To their credit, Orca/PAET has delivered shareholder value:

• 2021 Net Income: $16.37 million

• 2022 Net Income: $27.73 million

• 2023 Depletion Charge: $34.9 million (includes 3D seismic costs, not free-carried)

2024 was an unusual year due to operational disruptions (e.g., Songas shutdown), but in normal years, PAET still manages profitability—even under a flawed structure.

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🚀 Why Aminex Is Positioned for Stronger Returns

Now imagine all that without the burden. Aminex benefits from a simpler, more investor-friendly PSA, with multiple strategic advantages:

✅ Simple, Transparent Gas Pricing

• Aminex gas is sold at the wellhead.

• Different pricing tiers: power gas vs. industrial gas (with the latter commanding higher prices).

✅ No Free Gas Obligations

• No “Protected Gas” burden—100% of Aminex’s production will generate revenue.

✅ Strategic Financial Advantages

• No corporate debt dragging on profits.

• Free carry covers all development CAPEX (any unused portion gets paid to Aminex from ARA’s share).

• $115.7 million in tax losses can be used to offset future taxable income.

• $103.4 million intercompany loan (from Aminex to Ndovu) to be repaid tax-free, using future Tanzanian revenue.

NB the above is based on currently known PSA terms

From the pen of guest writer Ufufuo.

If I may say so, a nice piece that refutes a fair bit of nonsense that has been constantly spewed out on the boards when comparing Aminex to Orca and on occasion Wentworth.  To finish I wanted to clarify the accuracy and I asked an industry research model its opinion on the above. The results below...

✅ Confirmed Accurate

🟢 PAET PSA (2001) Complexity and Protected Gas

• Protected Gas obligations under PAET’s PSA are well-documented in Orca’s filings. PAET supplies up to 45.1 MMcf/d free of charge, reducing revenue-generating capacity.

• Cost recovery from remaining gas revenue is accurate, including TPDC’s costs.

• Profit gas split with TPDC up to 45% is consistent with Orca’s public disclosures.

🟢 Aminex PSA (Ntorya)

• The PSA for Ntorya is modern and post-2005, structured differently than PAET’s.

• Aminex is free-carried by ARA up to $140m, which covers seismic, drilling, and infrastructure.

• There are no protected gas obligations or government-imposed “no gain” provisions.

• Tax loss carryforwards of ~$115.7 million and intercompany loan to Ndovu of ~$103.4 million are disclosed in Aminex’s annual reports.

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⚠️ Partially Confirmed / Context Needed

⚠️ “100% of Aminex’s production will generate revenue”

• This is broadly accurate assuming current PSA terms persist, but future changes (e.g., TPDC back-in rights, new offtake agreements) could introduce deductions or allocations. Still, compared to PAET, the structure is materially more favourable.

⚠️ “Gas sold at wellhead” with two-tier pricing

• Aminex’s GSA terms are confidential, so while industrial pricing potential is real (and discussed at the AGM), we cannot confirm the pricing structure definitively. However, past statements have indicated potential for differentiated pricing (power vs. industrial).

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❌ No Material Errors Found

The post maintains a truthful, favorable comparison without exaggeration. It contextualizes Aminex’s financial positioning clearly and contrasts with the PAET PSA in a fair and fact-based manner.

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📝 Verdict

✅ Post is accurate and balanced.
🔍 Minor qualifications could be added (e.g., "based on currently known PSA terms") for extra precision.
💡 No misleading or exaggerated claims were detected.

#AEX 📈 Shard Capital Upgrades Aminex Price Target to 3.25–3.70p: A New Phase Begins

In a newly released note, Shard Capital has significantly upgraded its 12-month price target for Aminex PLC, citing the company’s transition from speculation to execution. With construction now underway on the $50 million Ntorya–Madimba pipeline, the path to production is clearer than ever.

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🧱 It’s No Longer “If”—It’s “When”

Shard opens their report with a bold shift in tone:

“It is no longer IF, but WHEN…”

That sentiment reflects the milestone announcement on July 7, when Tanzania’s TPDC confirmed investment in the pipeline, connecting Aminex’s Ntorya field to national gas infrastructure.

This development transforms Aminex’s narrative—turning a high-risk frontier explorer into a tangible energy growth story, linked to the rise of East Africa’s economy.

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🎯 New Valuation Target: 3.25p–3.70p

• Previous target: ~2.3p

• New 12-month target: 3.25p to 3.70p

  • Low-end: Assumes Ntorya production ramps to 280 MMscf/d by 2036

  • High-end: Assumes plateau is reached three years earlier, by 2033

This revaluation reflects faster expected development and improving investor confidence.

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🔍 Peak Valuation: 6p–7p Based on NPV

Shard goes even further with its long-term outlook:

“We currently estimate a peak NPV/share value in the range of 6p to 7p as the company reaches its peak production.”

This figure factors in full plateau production and future field development (Phase 2), making Aminex particularly attractive for long-term growth investors.

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⚙️ What Will Drive Short-Term Re-Rating?

Shard identifies two key catalysts that could drive further upside within the next 12 months:

1. Visible progress on the pipeline

2. Successful drilling of the Chikumbi‑1 (CH‑1) well

Both are scheduled to occur before mid‑2026, aligning with Aminex’s roadmap to first cash flow.

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📣 Final Takeaway for Investors

With pipeline construction confirmed and the CH‑1 drill now scheduled ahead of first gas, Aminex has entered its most investable phase to date. Shard Capital’s latest analysis reflects this turning point, offering institutional-grade endorsement of the company’s trajectory.

🔺 Target Range: 3.25p–3.70p

🚀 Peak Potential: 6p–7p/share

For investors aligned with East African energy growth, the case for Aminex has never been clearer.