Since 2003, exploration activity along the coastal margin of
East Africa has been at its most intense since exploration began in earnest in
the 1950’s. However despite much effort, with many promising indications for
oil both onshore and offshore, in all of this time there has been only one
commercial oil discovery in contrast to the 150-200 Tcf of gas that has been
recently discovered offshore.
The deep water has been phenomenally successful in terms of
exploration drilling success, yet despite the same or similar source rocks
being present, the limited exploration efforts in the nearshore and onshore
environments have failed to match the level of deep water success. Much of this
lack of success can be attributed to differences in both exploration culture
and methodology. Although there have been the occasional encouraging results,
onshore and nearshore exploration activity has never achieved the same momentum
or success as for the deep water. This can be partially attributed to the
regulatory frameworks, the type of companies willing to explore the coastal
margin and a general lack of enthusiasm shown by contractors to tender for work
there.
Re-examination of available well data and structural geology
along the coastal margin has refined the interpretation of pre-break up
tectonics and stratigraphy. This in turn has re-enforced the exploration
potential by identifying a possible new regional oil play with additional
possibilities for gas and perhaps opportunities for shale oil or heavy oil
sands. Such opportunities should be more attractive to smaller independent
exploration companies unwilling or unable to participate in the more costly
deep water environment. However, to make this happen in the current economic
climate a fresh approach to exploration culture and methods will be required
along the strategy chain to better de-risk projects, and shorten the lead time
to first production. More flexible terms from host governments, better sharing
of data and knowledge by and between host governments and exploration
companies, and potential pooling of resources by contractors, are all required
to bring exploration costs down and better de-risk prospects to increase
exploration activity and achieve improved levels of success in a lower revenue
environment.
About Mike: In 2008 Mike oversaw the Kiliwani North gas
discovery for Aminex in Tanzania, followed in 2012 by the onshore Ntorya gas
discovery in 2012, a Middle Cretaceous discovery estimated at the time to
consist of approx. 1.2 Tcf GIIP.
In 2014 Mike resigned from his role as Exploration Director
at Aminex and took on the role of Exploration Manager for PICO in Cairo, Egypt,
however this only lasted some 3 1/2 months as Mike contracted a virus that led
to heart failure – fortunately whilst back in the UK for Henley Regatta. Mike
made a full recovery, just in time for the oil price to slide down to $20. As a
result of poor timing of falling ill, Mike has since been working as an
independent consultant with a primary focus on East Africa and North Korea,
when not fighting to keep his ageing Land Rover on the road, and gazing out at
the Sticklepath Fault from his study at home on Dartmoor in Devon.
Mike graduated from University College of Swansea, Wales,
with a Geology degree and joined SSL - Seismograph Services (England) Limited -
and was posted to Libya processing onshore seismic data prior to returning to
the UK and working as a seismic interpreter on UKCS speculative seismic data.
In 1985 Mike joined BP as a geophysicist, initially in the
Far East Regional Appraisal Group, prior to postings to San Francisco to work
on the onshore San Joaquin Basin of California, and Cairo, Egypt, to work on
the Gulf of Suez and the Western Desert, before returning to London at the end
of 1989 to work on deepwater West Africa.
In 1991, Mike joined LASMO initially working on West Africa,
but also sub-Saharan Africa including the Seychelles. Mike then joined the
Russia group, focussed on new opportunities mainly in West Siberia, leaving in
1993 and working as an independent consultant on West Siberia and West Africa,
until joining Phibro to work on the White Knights Joint Venture in West Siberia
until 1998, at which point Mike joined Aminex initially in the Tatarstan and
Komi semi-autonomous Republics of Russia. In late 2001, Mike persuaded Aminex
management that East Africa offered low cost opportunities with little
competition, yet potentially large rewards, resulting with Aminex entering
Tanzania in 2002.
