Aminex: From Acorn to Oak – Chapter 5: First Gas

 When molecules finally flowed to market

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After years of drilling, licensing, and negotiating, the wait was over. In April 2016, Aminex announced that gas from the Kiliwani North-1 (KN-1) well had finally started flowing into Tanzania’s national grid.

It was a milestone not just for the company, but for the country. KN-1 marked the first time Aminex had moved beyond being a pure explorer and into the ranks of producing companies. Tanzania, meanwhile, gained a new domestic supply source to feed growing demand for power and industry.

The plan was a gradual ramp-up. Initial flows began at modest levels, with volumes increasing step by step over a 90–100 day commissioning phase until the system stabilised at around 25–30 million cubic feet per day. During that period, TPDC was invoiced monthly for gas produced, with payments made in advance under the security arrangements of the GSA.

For investors who had followed the company since the early Nyuni days, this was vindication. After more than a decade of waiting, Aminex could finally show a revenue line on its accounts — in hard US dollars.

It was also proof of concept. Gas from Kiliwani North flowed directly into the new Songo Songo processing plant and then into the pipeline system feeding Dar es Salaam. The whole chain — wellhead to processing to pipeline to end user — was now working. That mattered for the much larger discoveries in the Ruvuma basin, which would one day follow the same route.

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For Aminex, first gas was the reward for persistence. For shareholders, it was proof that the long story of licences, partners, and patient waiting had a tangible outcome. But as so often in oil and gas, the story didn’t end there. Within a year, new challenges emerged.

➡️ Next time: Chapter Six — Challenges and Decline. We’ll follow the pressure problems that reduced KN-1’s flow, forcing Aminex to rethink its strategy and refocus on the bigger prize in the Ruvuma basin.

Aminex: From Acorn to Oak – Chapter 4: Gas Sales Agreement

The signature that turned gas into guaranteed dollars

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By 2015, the pieces were lined up. Aminex had its discovery well, its government development licence, and Tanzania’s new processing plant and pipeline at Songo Songo were finally nearing readiness. What it still lacked was the most important piece of paper in any gas project: a sales contract.

That arrived on 13 January 2016, when Aminex announced that it had signed a fully-termed Gas Sales Agreement (GSA) with the Tanzania Petroleum Development Corporation (TPDC). For the company, it was the milestone shareholders had been waiting on for years.

The terms were clear, simple, and bankable:

• Price: US$3.00 per mmbtu (≈US$3.07 per mcf).

• Currency: Revenues in US dollars.

• Indexation: Annual adjustment using US CPI from 2016 onward.

• Structure: Take-or-pay depletion contract, ensuring TPDC had to either take delivery or pay for a minimum volume each year.

• Security: Monthly payments in advance, secured by letter of credit from Tanzania Investment Bank.

For a junior like Aminex, these terms were gold. Selling at the wellhead meant the joint venture partners didn’t shoulder pipeline or processing fees. The fixed dollar price insulated them from volatile global oil and gas markets. And the take-or-pay clause provided certainty that cash would flow even if volumes were lower than forecast.

It had been a long wait. The discovery was made in 2008, the development licence granted in 2011, and only now — eight years later — was Aminex in a position to sell gas. But when the GSA landed, it transformed the company overnight: a real producer in the making, not just an explorer.

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For investors, this RNS was a watershed moment. Aminex had crossed the line from “exploration story” to “revenue story.” After years of patience, shareholders could finally expect the next announcement to be about gas flowing and dollars in the bank.

➡️ Next time: Chapter Five — First Gas. We’ll follow the moment molecules finally moved from the wellhead into Tanzania’s national grid, and Aminex booked its first ever production revenues.

Aminex: From Acorn to Oak – Chapter 1: Roots and First Stakes

From Eglinton Oil to Tanzania’s first exploration drills

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Every oak begins as an acorn. For Aminex, the acorn was planted long before Tanzania became the focus of attention. The story starts in the late 1970s with Eglinton Oil & Gas, later reorganised as Aminex PLC in 1991. For years the company roamed widely — taking positions in the USA, Russia, Egypt, New Zealand, even Pakistan. It was a restless, globe-trotting junior explorer, chasing opportunities where it could.

But 2002 marked a turning point. That year Aminex acquired Tanzoil NL and with it a small Tanzanian subsidiary called Ndovu Resources Ltd. Overnight, Aminex had a new frontier: licences stretching over the Nyuni area offshore and the unexplored Ruvuma basin onshore. Few in London had ever heard of Songo Songo Island or Lindi, but Aminex saw potential.

The following year, 2003, the company drilled its first Tanzanian well, Nyuni-1. It wasn’t a commercial producer, but it did something more important: it proved there was gas in the system. For a frontier explorer, that’s the first brick in the wall.

From there, the company pressed on. By 2006, seismic surveys were underway across Nyuni and Ruvuma, partly funded by partners like Hardman Resources. Farm-outs became a survival tactic: Aminex would shoulder the early risk, then bring in bigger players to help pay for the next stage. It kept the show on the road, but at the cost of giving up slices of the prize.

The next big test came in 2010, when the Likonde-1 exploration well was drilled in the Lindi licence as part of the Ruvuma PSA. This was a high-stakes venture with Tullow and Solo as partners. The well cut through more than 250 metres of sandstone with oil and gas shows — geological success on paper. But high-pressure gas influxes forced the operation to be abandoned before reaching its deepest targets.

For investors, it was another let-down. No commercial flow, no revenue. For the geologists, it was confirmation: hydrocarbons were there, just waiting to be unlocked.

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By the close of this first chapter, Aminex had transformed itself. It was no longer just a wandering junior with scattered assets. It was a company with its feet planted firmly in Tanzanian soil — a country that would define its future. Two early wells, Nyuni-1 and Likonde-1, had both proven hydrocarbons but offered no immediate payday.

Still, the conviction had set in: there was a commercial gas story here, waiting for the right drill and the right timing.

➡️ Next time: Chapter Two — Nyuni & Kiliwani Discovery. We follow Aminex as the company moves closer to the breakthrough that would prove Tanzanian gas could finally flow at scale.

Aminex: The Ruvuma Basin Potential That Could Transform Ntorya

Beyond current reserves — how 16+ Tcf of gas, condensate uplift, and possible oil could multiply Aminex’s value many times over.

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1. From Current to Future

So far, our valuation discussions have been based only on 0.4 Tcf net to Aminex, which is the currently recoverable gas booked at Ntorya. That alone already suggests strong upside to today’s share price.

But the real long-term prize is the Ruvuma Basin itself, where independent assessments point to 16+ Tcf unrisked potential.

If the mapped ~16+ Tcf unrisked potential were progressively proved up during Full Field Development, Aminex’s 25% stake could reach up to 4 Tcf net — ten times larger than today’s discovered share! Even partial success (say 25–50% of that potential) would still lift Aminex’s net exposure to roughly 1–2 Tcf, materially above today’s booked ~0.2–0.4 Tcf.

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2. The Numbers — Scaling Up

Let’s use the same pricing assumptions as before:

• Base Case: $4.00/Mcf (domestic tariff)

• High Case: $6.10/Mcf (industrial tariff)

For 4 Tcf net to Aminex:

• Base Case → ~$16 billion gross sales

• High Case → ~$24.4 billion gross sales

Even after PSA splits (conservatively assuming 55–60% government take, though Aminex has agreed favourable terms), that still implies:

• $6.8–10.4 billion net to contractors

• $1.7–2.6 billion net to Aminex

Divide by 4.22 billion shares:

• Base Case ~31p/share

• High Case ~47p/share

That’s an order of magnitude higher than today’s 1.95p.

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3. Condensate Uplift & Oil Potential

The basin story is not only about gas:

• Condensate uplift: Ntorya gas is expected to carry ~15% additional liquids value, providing a premium revenue stream on top of gas sales.

• Oil upside: Drilling at NT-2 encountered oil shows in the mud, suggesting a deeper Jurassic oil play exists. If confirmed in later phases, this could open a whole new layer of value.

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4. Why Investors Care

Cove Energy’s billion-pound sale in 2012 showed that when majors see multi-Tcf scale, they pay heavily for it. Ntorya is onshore, with lower costs and direct access to Tanzania’s growing market — factors that make it even more attractive strategically.

Long-term holders believe much of the 16+ Tcf potential will be proved up, turning Ntorya from a domestic gas play into a basin-scale energy hub with regional importance.

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5. The Investor Takeaway

• Current reserves justify near-term upside.

• Basin potential could multiply Aminex’s value 10× or more.

• Condensate uplift (+15%) and possible oil add further optionality.

• Tanzania’s strong government backing and infrastructure funding reduce project risk.

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📌 Closing Line:
“The discovered reserves at Ntorya are already valuable — but the 16+ Tcf potential of the Ruvuma Basin is what could truly transform Aminex. With condensate and oil as additional prizes, the long-term upside is not just incremental, but potentially transformational.”

Aminex: What Ntorya’s Gas Could Mean for the Share Price

From current reserves to full-field potential, a closer look at revenues, PSA terms, and cost recovery.

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1. Headline Upside — The Big Picture

Aminex’s share of currently recoverable Ntorya gas is estimated at ~0.4 Tcf.

Using a base case domestic tariff of $4.00/Mcf and a higher industrial price of $6.10/Mcf, the gross lifetime sales values come to:

• Base Case $4.00 → $1.6 billion

• High Case $6.10 → $2.44 billion

With 4.22 billion shares in issue, that equates to headline values of:

• 28.8p per share (base)

• 43.9p per share (high)

👉 These are gross, pre-PSA figures, but they show why investors get excited: even the currently booked reserves generate multi-billion-dollar numbers.

And this is before considering condensate uplift, oil upside, or basin-wide volumes.

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2. PSA-Adjusted Reality — Still Attractive

Tanzanian PSAs normally allocate around 55–60% of profit gas to government/TPDC. However, Aminex has publicly highlighted that favourable conditions have been agreed in the amended PSA (commercially sensitive and not disclosed in detail).

That means the actual government take could be less onerous than the typical model — but even on conservative assumptions:

• Base Case ~3.0p/share

• High Case ~4.7p/share

versus the current 1.95p share price.

That’s 50–140% upside — based only on what is currently recoverable.

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3. How Cost Recovery Works (Capex & Opex)

A common misconception is that capex and opex simply reduce Aminex’s share. Under Tanzania’s PSA, that isn’t true.

• Operators can recover up to 50% of gross annual revenues as “Cost Gas”.

• This applies to both capex and opex until all are fully repaid.

• Unrecovered balances roll forward each year until cleared.

Example:

Suppose capex is $250m, and annual revenues are $200m.

• Year 1: $100m recovered (50% of $200m)

• Year 2: another $100m recovered

• Year 3: $50m recovered → capex fully paid off

From then on, more of the revenue flows directly as profit gas.

Opex is treated the same way — recoverable under the 50% annual ceiling — which means operating costs are also reimbursed before the profit split.

👉 This is why cost recovery actually improves early cash flows to contractors and ensures long-term netbacks are higher than raw PSA splits suggest.

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4. The True Prize — Full Field Development

Everything so far is based only on ~0.4 Tcf net recoverable to Aminex. But the Ruvuma Basin has an estimated 16+ Tcf unrisked potential.

If proved up during full-field development (FFD):

• Aminex’s 25% stake = ~4 Tcf net

• That’s 10× larger than today’s discovered gas

• On the same multiples, the per-share potential could be 30p–47p turning into 300p–470p

And there’s more:

• Condensate uplift is expected to add ~15% additional value to gas sales.

• Oil shows at NT-2 strongly hint at a deeper Jurassic oil play, which could be targeted in later phases of development.

Long-term holders therefore anticipate not just steady gas monetisation, but a basin-scale growth story with multiple revenue streams.

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5. Investor Takeaway

• Current Recoverables: Already justify upside against today’s 1.95p share price.

• PSA Economics + Cost Recovery: Show Aminex can recoup capex/opex and still achieve strong netbacks.

• Full Field Potential: 16+ Tcf basin, condensate uplift, and possible oil add layers of transformational upside.

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📌 Closing Line for Investors:
“Even using conservative PSA terms, Aminex’s share of Ntorya already implies material upside. With cost recovery mechanisms improving early cash flow, condensate and oil adding extra value, and the 16+ Tcf basin potential still to be proved, the long-term case for Aminex remains one of scale and strategic importance.”

Check in tomorrow when we do the sums based on the full potential of 16+ Tcf

Beyond Ntorya: Unlocking the 16 Tcf Potential of the Ruvuma Basin

Why future drilling, deeper horizons, and even potential oil could transform Ntorya from a domestic gas play into a basin-scale energy hub.

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From Discovered to Potential

In our previous article we compared Aminex’s current discovered share of Ntorya gas with Cove Energy’s position in Mozambique back in 2012. That comparison was based on today’s proven gas only — roughly 0.4 Tcf net to Aminex.

But Ntorya sits within the wider Ruvuma Basin, a structure that independent assessments and operator mapping suggest could hold 16 Tcf or more of unrisked gas potential.

This is where the real long-term opportunity lies.

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Why Basin Potential Matters

Majors don’t just buy into what has already been booked. The Cove Energy bidding war showed that upside scale is what excites strategic buyers.

• Cove’s 8.5% stake equated to ~5–6 Tcf net when sold.

• If future drilling proves out Ruvuma’s 16+ Tcf potential, Aminex’s 25% stake could represent ~4 Tcf net.

• That’s on par with Cove’s net interest — but onshore, with lower development costs and direct access to a growing domestic market.

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The Jurassic Oil Angle

Ntorya’s story isn’t just about gas. During NT-2 drilling, oil traces were identified in the mud — evidence that deeper horizons could contain liquid hydrocarbons.

Originally, the Chikumbi-1 (CH-1) well was planned to target multiple stacked levels, including the deeper Jurassic formation. The revised location focuses only on gas, reflecting Tanzania’s immediate priority for domestic supply.

But in time, under Full Field Development (FFD), it is reasonable to expect that the Jurassic oil play will be revisited. If proven, this would add an entirely new dimension to Ntorya’s value.

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Tanzania’s Strategic Positioning

Tanzania continues to strengthen its role as an emerging energy hub. Recent announcements of cooperation agreements with Russian firms on oil and gas data-sharing highlight how the country is seeking to attract wider international partnerships.

While this has no direct bearing on Ntorya’s near-term gas project, it underlines that global players are watching the basin — a positive backdrop for future growth and potential transactions.

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The Bigger Picture for Investors

For Aminex shareholders, the significance is clear:

• Current discovered gas underpins near-term production and cash flow.

• Basin potential (16+ Tcf) could ultimately give Aminex’s 25% stake net exposure similar to what Cove Energy enjoyed at the time of its billion-pound sale.

• Oil upside offers an additional prize that is not priced into today’s valuations.

• Government and TPDC backing reduce financial risk on key infrastructure, keeping capital efficiency high.

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Closing Thought

Ntorya today is about gas, CPF construction, and pipeline delivery. But Ntorya tomorrow could be about much more: multi-Tcf basin growth and the possibility of oil.

That dual track of secure near-term gas revenue and longer-term basin-scale upside is what makes the Ruvuma story compelling.

Just as Cove Energy’s 2012 sale proved, when majors see that scale — they act.

From Cove to Ntorya: What a Billion-Pound Gas Deal Could Mean for Aminex

How the Cove Energy sale in 2012 set a precedent — and what a cautious comparison suggests for Ntorya today.

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Looking Back: The Cove Energy Deal

In 2012, Cove Energy became the centre of one of the oil and gas industry’s most closely watched bidding wars. The company held an 8.5% stake in Mozambique’s Ruvuma Offshore Area 1, where giant gas discoveries had been made.

Resource estimates at the time pointed to ~60–75 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of recoverable gas in Area 1, giving Cove a net interest of around 5–6 Tcf.

Both Shell and PTTEP competed fiercely for the prize. PTTEP eventually secured Cove with a £1.2bn ($1.9bn) offer, equal to about £1.8bn in today’s money.

The message was clear: when majors see scale and strategic importance, they are prepared to pay significant premiums.

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How Ntorya Compares Today

Tanzania’s Ntorya gas development is at a different stage and scale, but shares some important parallels:

• Onshore project with lower capital intensity, tied into the domestic grid.

• Gas Sales Agreement in place to supply 40 MMscf/d in the first year.

• Discovered resources of ~1.6–3.45 Tcf gas in place, equating to ~0.7–1.3 Tcf recoverable.

• Aminex 25% stake gives it ~0.4 Tcf net recoverable gas today.

• Pipeline funding covered by TPDC, reducing upfront capex risk for partners.

While smaller in absolute size than Ruvuma Offshore, Ntorya has the advantages of lower costs, faster route to market, and guaranteed domestic demand.

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What a Yardstick Comparison Suggests

Cove’s 5–6 Tcf net stake was bought for £1.2bn. Aminex’s current discovered stake is smaller, but even if you apply Cove-style transaction multiples cautiously, it still points toward valuations in the hundreds of millions of dollars.

That compares with Aminex’s present ~£80m market cap — suggesting that as production ramps and reserves grow, there is room for meaningful upside.

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Tanzania’s Strategic Context

Gas projects like Ntorya sit within a bigger picture. Tanzania is actively expanding its international energy partnerships, including a recent agreement to exchange data with Russian firms on oil and gas opportunities.

While this does not directly affect Ntorya’s early development, it underlines a key point: Tanzania’s energy sector is attracting global attention. That kind of strategic positioning can only strengthen investor confidence in the country’s long-term gas plans.

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Why This Is Just the Beginning

The comparison above is based only on discovered gas at Ntorya today. It does not include:

• The 16+ Tcf unrisked potential identified in the wider Ruvuma Basin.

• The possibility of oil in deeper Jurassic horizons, hinted at during NT-2 drilling.

These longer-term opportunities could transform Ntorya into a basin-scale energy story — just as Ruvuma Offshore did for Mozambique.

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Closing Thought

Cove Energy showed that majors will pay heavily for scale and strategic gas.

Ntorya is not Cove: it is onshore, domestic-focused, and nearer to revenue. But even on a cautious yardstick, Aminex’s stake already points to valuations above today’s market price.

And importantly, this is only the beginning. In our next article, we will explore the much larger upside potential — from multi-Tcf basin resources to the possibility of oil — and why Ntorya could ultimately prove far more significant than today’s numbers suggest.

Aminex RNS Ntorya Operations Update - Rig Tender Strategy

 Today 12:00

RNS Number : 5111R

Aminex PLC

17 July 2025

 

17 July 2025

 

Aminex plc

 ("Aminex" or "the Company")

 

Ntorya Operations Update

 

Aminex, the oil and gas exploration and development company focused on Tanzania, is pleased to announce the following operations update on the Ntorya development:

· At the end of last week, the Tanzania Petroleum Development Corporation (TPDC) formally notified the operator of the Ntorya development (ARA Petroleum Tanzania Limited (APT)) that construction of the pipeline from the Ntorya gas field to the Madimba gas processing plant (the Pipeline) shall commence in July 2025 and is scheduled to be completed and commissioned by the end of July 2026. The Ntorya-2 well will provide gas once the Pipeline is commissioned.

 

· Earlier this week, APT presented a tender strategy to the Petroleum Upstream Regulatory Authority (PURA) for contracting a rig to drill the Chikumbi-1 well and perform a workover on the Ntorya-1 well, along with all related services. PURA requested this strategy to expedite the tendering process. Once APT receives approval from PURA, it will immediately issue the rig tender and tenders for other necessary services, expecting to do so no later than mid-August 2025.

Charles Santos, Executive Chairman of Aminex commented:

"We are delighted that work on the pipeline will commence this month, marking the start of the construction phase of the Ntorya Gas Development. With a plan to complete the Pipeline by July 2026 and expectation of starting a rig tender process very soon, the project is well on its way to producing first gas next year.

We are grateful to the TPDC, PURA and other agencies, which have backed the Government of Tanzania's strong commitment to our project with their hard work. And we thank APT as the operator for managing the dynamic work streams to reach this milestone.

As the discoverer of the Ntorya Gas Field and founding partner in the development, we have long believed the project will be a gamechanger for Tanzania's energy landscape. Gas from the first phase of development will be staying in Tanzania to help power homes, boost industrial development and the regional economy and replace dirtier fuels such as coal and charcoal. This has long been our vision and now we are very excited to be so much closer to realising that vision."

For further information:
Aminex PLC +44 203 355 9909
Charles Santos, Executive Chairman
Knights Media & Public Relations +44 203 653 0200
Jason Knights, Sabina Zawadzki
Davy +353 1 679 6363
Brian Garrahy
Shard Capital +44 20 7186 9952
Damon Heath

 

Notes to Editors:

The Ntorya Development Licence area lies adjacent to a region containing supergiant world-class LNG projects, extending from offshore Tanzania into Mozambique waters to the south. The JV partners intend to produce Ntorya gas into the growing domestic gas market, helping to alleviate energy poverty and boost the energy transition in Tanzania.

Aminex, with a 25% non-operated interest, is carried throughout the ongoing work programme to a maximum gross capital expenditure of $140 million ($35 million net to Aminex). The carry is expected to see the Company through to the commencement of commercial gas production from the Ntorya field at zero cost to the Company.

 

This information is provided by RNS, the news service of the London Stock Exchange. RNS is approved by the Financial Conduct Authority to act as a Primary Information Provider in the United Kingdom. Terms and conditions relating to the use and distribution of this information may apply. For further information, please contact rns@lseg.com or visit www.rns.com.RNS may use your IP address to confirm compliance with the terms and conditions, to analyse how you engage with the information contained in this communication, and to share such analysis on an anonymised basis with others as part of our commercial services. For further information about how RNS and the London Stock Exchange use the personal data you provide us, please see our Privacy Policy.

 

END

Aminex in Tanzania Europe's Next Gas Station

 

Oil Giants Eye South African Coasts as Fuel, Climate Crises Merge

French energy giant Total Energies is preparing to submit its final application for approval to drill up to five wells for oil or gas between Cape Town and Cape Agulhas, writes Liezl Human for GroundUp.

The application is one in a rush of offshore oil and gas applications along South Africa's coast.