Wednesday, 19 August 2020

The Aminex Licence Extension - The Drewky View

The Aminex Extension

Granted for only twelve months, I have seen the cries in recent days....

"Waste of time" they cry, "we will be out of time before it needs renewing again!"

Well yes, it is a short period of time, but necessary in my opinion.

I think to negotiate a deal for approval on a farm-out, there must at least be a licence in place to make that possible.  Without a licence there is surely nothing to farm-out and no value to be had!

My view is that a short licence was granted deliberately by the government to allow time for the red tape to be completed and approvals to be granted.

I am assuming that a further licence will be most likely be included within the announcements because as a part of the process, the company have had to supply the ministry with a schedule of planned works.  They will know from that schedule that there is no way that work planned two years ago, can now be completed within months, so simple logic tells me it will be either a further extension, or some kind of renewed licence that will come intertwined with the approval.  Let's not forget APT are putting $110m of their own cash into the project and they would not commit that on the back of an extension that barely lasts to Qtr2 2021

The original plan showed a 3 to 4 drill estimate  over the first 18 months However the $140,000,000 carried full field development (below) would take much longer, so again no point without a licence to carry it through.

It would also not surprise me if within these negotiations, a gas sales agreement and terms was not being negotiated.

As hard as it is for many investors to accept, (believe me I feel the same frustrations) we are not building an extension on the side of a house.  We are there with intent to prosper in a way that will change the country and it's economic position in the world.  What did they say about Rome?

In my view the sun is rising in Tanzania and holders should be purchasing their sun lotions and not let themselves be misled by a grumpy old Indian band.  Apache & Back Scratch Cats.

 
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The Drewky View is entirely his own opinion and he makes no recommendations on investments. His only recommendation is for you to...  DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH repeat it over an over again and ignore the nonsense written on the bulletin boards.  He declares openly that he is a private holder of shares within the company and simply takes a keen interest in matters around the company.