Aminex: From Acorn to Oak – Chapter 10: To Be Continued

The road to first gas from Ntorya

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Every story has a turning point, and for Aminex the next one is close at hand. With the discoveries made, the farm-out secured, and the seismic reinterpreted, the company now stands on the threshold of delivery. The years of exploration, frustration, and patience are about to give way to a new reality: first gas from Ntorya.

The foundations are already being laid:

• The Central Processing Facility (CPF) soon under construction, designed to handle volumes far beyond anything Kiliwani ever produced.

• A dedicated pipeline to Madimba will connect Ntorya directly into Tanzania’s national grid.

• The upcoming Chikumbi-1 (CH-1) well is set to provide the final data, confirming reserves and opening up deeper horizons.

For Aminex shareholders, the prize is tangible. With a 25% free-carried interest, the company is positioned to receive an expected $40 million net cashflow per annum once the Ntorya field is on stream. That’s not blue-sky speculation — it’s a contracted pathway underpinned by infrastructure already in build.

For Tanzania, Ntorya is about more than cashflow. It’s about energy security, powering industry, and supporting economic growth with domestic supply. Aminex’s journey from a struggling junior to a long-term gas partner mirrors the country’s own transition toward energy independence.

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So the oak tree has not yet fully spread its branches, but the trunk is strong, the roots are deep, and the first harvest is within reach.

➡️ The story continues. The next RNS will write the next page — and when first gas flows from Ntorya, Chapter Eleven will begin.

Aminex Momentum: Seize the Entry After the small Pullback

Project Catalysts & Government Backing Align — Here’s Why Aminex Looks Poised for Upside

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Over the past few weeks, Aminex (AEX) has shown strong upward price momentum, followed by a modest pullback in the last two days  — exactly the kind of pattern value‑hunters like. This gives new and existing investors a chance: to buy in at a more favourable level while major project drivers remain intact.

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What We Know: Recent Developments & Catalysts

1. Pipeline & Field Project Milestones Moving Ahead

   • The pipeline from the Ntorya gas field to the Madimba processing plant is now advancing to equipment procurement. Bulk of the pipe & materials are being purchased.

   • Construction equipment mobilisation begins in This Month Groundwork and pipe‑laying will follow in January 2026, with expected completion by July 2026.

2. Drilling & Well Workover Moves Forward

   • The regulatory authority (PURA) has approved the tender strategy for both drilling the Chikumbi‑1 well and doing a workover on the Ntorya‑1 well and EOI deadline has been passed for those wishing to bid.

   • These well operations will add to production capacity once the pipeline is live.

3. Aminex’s Financial Position & Upside Exposure

   • Aminex holds a 25% non‑operated interest in the Ntorya Development Licence area. It is carried through the ongoing work programme up to $140 million in gross expenditure (i.e. $35 million net to Aminex) — meaning it doesn’t have to contribute capital until certain milestones / revenue commencement.

   • Several upcoming value inflection triggers have been identified: awarding of well drilling contracts, pipeline completion, first gas production, and revenue streams.

4. Price Action & Sentiment

   • The share price has climbed significantly over recent months. As of early September 2025, it’s trading around 2.05p to 2.18p (GBX) per share, near its 52‑week high (≈ 2.20p), after recovering from lows of around 0.82‑0.90p.

   • Recent pullback in the last couple of days is modest and fairly typical following strong moves — not necessarily a warning sign so much as a potential entry window.

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Why This Pullback Could Mean Opportunity

• Risk has been haircut: Many of the big uncertainties — regulators, land, pipeline route, environmental & government permits — have been resolved meanwhile the project transitions into procurement and construction, risk from “will it happen?” shifts toward “how smoothly will it be executed?”

• Low upfront cost for Aminex: Because Aminex is carried, its capital exposure until first gas is limited. If the pipeline & field development go to plan, the upside could be high relative to its risk.

• Upcoming catalysts are visible: Investors can mark key dates (equipment mobilisation, pipeline completion, start of gas flows) in their calendars. Each of those is likely to reinforce sentiment & possibly trigger revaluations.

• Valuation gap: Trading near highs but still seeming undervalued if one assumes successful execution & first gas. The pullback allows entry before some of the big milestones are “baked in” by the market.

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Conclusion: Is Now a Good Entry Point?

Yes — for investors who believe in the project’s execution, government support, and energy demand in Tanzania. The recent pullback provides a potentially favourable entry point. The upside risk/reward looks better now than when many of the early uncertainties still loomed large.

Ntorya Gas: The Hidden Backbone of Tanzania’s Energy Revolution

Why Aminex’s 25% stake in a $5.3B asset is massively undervalued—and essential to powering East Africa’s future.

Tanzania is at a crossroads of transformational change. With one of the fastest-growing populations in Africa, a government-led industrialisation push, and mounting regional energy demand, the country is setting the stage to become East Africa’s energy hub.

At the heart of this vision is the Ntorya Gas Field—a resource-rich onshore gas field discovered by Aminex plc (AEX: AIM) now in partnership with operator ARA Petroleum. While most headlines focus on offshore LNG megaprojects, Ntorya is quietly becoming the real enabler of near-term, high-impact development across power generation, clean cooking, and industrial expansion.

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🛢️ What Is Ntorya and Why Is It Crucial?

Located in Tanzania’s Ruvuma Basin, Ntorya is a discovered and appraised onshore gas resource with independently certified 2C resources of 3.45 TCF (trillion cubic feet). It is strategically located close to existing infrastructure:

• ~35 km to the Madimba Gas Processing Plant (connected to the national grid)

• Within reach of industrial zones, power plants, and LPG bottling networks

• Tied to the government’s pipeline construction timeline, now under execution

In July 2025, TPDC awarded a contract to Chinese EPC firms for the Ntorya–Madimba pipeline, aiming for first gas by July 2026.

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🚀 The Demand Side: Powering Growth and Decarbonisation

1. Electricity for a Growing Nation

Tanzania’s demand for electricity is surging, driven by:

• Industrial expansion (Kwala, Bagamoyo, Mtwara, and 5 new SEZs)

• Urbanisation and regional electrification (Kenya, Uganda, Zambia interconnectors)

• Replacement of expensive diesel generators in off-grid and peri-urban areas

Gas-fired power is a vital component of Tanzania’s Least Cost Power Development Plan, offering a flexible, cleaner alternative to coal and hydro. Ntorya’s gas could support:

• Mtwara’s planned 600 MW gas-fired plant

• Power exports via the Zambia–Tanzania interconnector (commissioning by 2026)

• Stability for the growing SEZ clusters

2. Clean Cooking Revolution

Over 85% of Tanzanians still cook with wood or charcoal, causing:

• Massive deforestation (est. 400,000 hectares lost annually)

• Respiratory diseases linked to indoor air pollution

• Lost productivity and gender-based labour burdens

The government’s Clean Cooking Energy Strategy 2024–2034 aims for 80% adoption of clean cooking solutions by 2034, with LPG and piped gas forming the backbone.

Ntorya—via processing at Madimba and planned bottling/distribution networks—could become a critical feedstock for LPG, accelerating this health and environmental imperative.

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🏭 Ntorya + Infrastructure: Perfect Alignment

The Tanzanian government is making record infrastructure investments, many of which require reliable gas supply:

Infrastructure Project	How Ntorya Supports It
Kwala Industrial Zone (2,000+ industries)	Pipeline link via Chalinze branch
Dar–Chalinze 102 km pipeline	Extends gas grid northward
Mtwara Corridor industrial sites	Direct proximity; gas-fuelled plants
Bagamoyo port/SEZ (700+ industries)	Industrial and export energy needs
5 new SEZs (TISEZA, Aug 2025)	Manufacturing zones require consistent gas/power

This infrastructure is not just domestic—Tanzania is now deeply tied into regional energy trade, with long-term plans for a Dar–Mombasa gas pipeline, power interconnectors to Uganda and Zambia, and LPG exports to neighbouring countries.

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💰 Aminex’s Ntorya Stake: A Multi-Billion-Dollar Revenue Stream in the Making

📦 Step 1: How Much Gas is 0.4 Tcf?

• 1 Tcf = 1 trillion cubic feet

• Aminex’s net discovered share: 0.4 Tcf

• In Mcf (thousand cubic feet):
  0.4 Tcf = 400 million Mcf

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💵 Step 2: Apply Realistic Price Scenarios

Price Scenario	Mcf Value	Gross Revenue
Base Case	$4.00/Mcf	$1.6 billion
Higher Case	$6.10/Mcf	$2.44 billion

Even under conservative pricing, Aminex’s gas could generate $1.6 billion in gross sales over its production life — rising to $2.44 billion using industry tariff averages.

This isn’t speculative: the Gas Sales Agreement (GSA) is signed, and Ntorya’s gas is destined for guaranteed demand through:

• Madimba Gas Plant

• Tanzania’s national grid

• Industrial zones like Kwala and Bagamoyo

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🧾 Step 3: What Does That Mean for Aminex?

While gross sales ≠ net profits, the exercise highlights one thing:

This is a multi-billion-dollar gross revenue stream backed by infrastructure, policy, and market need.

Factors such as:

• The Production Sharing Agreement (55–60% government take),

• Ongoing cost recovery (capex/opex), and

• Multi-year revenue timing

…will shape exact returns. But even adjusted for PSA terms, Aminex’s upside remains enormous.

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📊 Step 4: How It Compares

For context:

• Orca Exploration (operating in Tanzania’s Songo Songo field) averaged over $6/Mcf in 2023 gas sales.

• This validates the $6.10/Mcf industrial pricing used in our high case.

So Ntorya gas is likely to achieve higher-tier pricing, not just the base GSA rate — making the higher revenue scenario entirely realistic.

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🔍 Conclusion: Massive Value, Still Mispriced

With a current market cap around $100 million, Aminex is trading at:

• ~6% of potential gross revenue at base pricing

• ~4% of potential gross revenue at industrial pricing

This level of undervaluation—on a de-risked, demand-backed, GSA-approved, development-ready gas asset—is extraordinary.

As the Ntorya–Madimba pipeline moves toward first gas in 2026, investors have a rare asymmetric opportunity to enter a project with scale, timing, and strategic alignment fully in place.

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🌍 ESG & Energy Transition: A Stronger Investment Narrative

Ntorya is not just a resource—it’s a climate-aligned, impact-driven energy project. It:

• Displaces biomass and diesel with cleaner, reliable gas

• Supports health, education, and gender equity through clean cooking

• Boosts Tanzania’s ability to trade energy regionally and grow sustainably

For impact funds, ESG-aligned investors, or frontier energy portfolios, Ntorya offers high upside with positive social and environmental impact.

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🧠 Final Thoughts: Ntorya Is Not Optional—It’s Foundational

Tanzania’s bold industrial, electrification, and clean cooking goals depend on gas that’s already discovered, already financed, and already being built.

Ntorya is:

• Strategically located

• Nationally prioritized

• Technically de-risked

• Financially undervalued

As first gas approaches in 2026, and pipeline works begin in earnest, the clock is ticking on this unique asymmetrical opportunity. For investors willing to look beyond the offshore LNG fog, Ntorya and Aminex offer clarity, impact, and returns.

Aminex: The Ruvuma Basin Potential That Could Transform Ntorya

Beyond current reserves — how 16+ Tcf of gas, condensate uplift, and possible oil could multiply Aminex’s value many times over.

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1. From Current to Future

So far, our valuation discussions have been based only on 0.4 Tcf net to Aminex, which is the currently recoverable gas booked at Ntorya. That alone already suggests strong upside to today’s share price.

But the real long-term prize is the Ruvuma Basin itself, where independent assessments point to 16+ Tcf unrisked potential.

If the mapped ~16+ Tcf unrisked potential were progressively proved up during Full Field Development, Aminex’s 25% stake could reach up to 4 Tcf net — ten times larger than today’s discovered share! Even partial success (say 25–50% of that potential) would still lift Aminex’s net exposure to roughly 1–2 Tcf, materially above today’s booked ~0.2–0.4 Tcf.

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2. The Numbers — Scaling Up

Let’s use the same pricing assumptions as before:

• Base Case: $4.00/Mcf (domestic tariff)

• High Case: $6.10/Mcf (industrial tariff)

For 4 Tcf net to Aminex:

• Base Case → ~$16 billion gross sales

• High Case → ~$24.4 billion gross sales

Even after PSA splits (conservatively assuming 55–60% government take, though Aminex has agreed favourable terms), that still implies:

• $6.8–10.4 billion net to contractors

• $1.7–2.6 billion net to Aminex

Divide by 4.22 billion shares:

• Base Case ~31p/share

• High Case ~47p/share

That’s an order of magnitude higher than today’s 1.95p.

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3. Condensate Uplift & Oil Potential

The basin story is not only about gas:

• Condensate uplift: Ntorya gas is expected to carry ~15% additional liquids value, providing a premium revenue stream on top of gas sales.

• Oil upside: Drilling at NT-2 encountered oil shows in the mud, suggesting a deeper Jurassic oil play exists. If confirmed in later phases, this could open a whole new layer of value.

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4. Why Investors Care

Cove Energy’s billion-pound sale in 2012 showed that when majors see multi-Tcf scale, they pay heavily for it. Ntorya is onshore, with lower costs and direct access to Tanzania’s growing market — factors that make it even more attractive strategically.

Long-term holders believe much of the 16+ Tcf potential will be proved up, turning Ntorya from a domestic gas play into a basin-scale energy hub with regional importance.

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5. The Investor Takeaway

• Current reserves justify near-term upside.

• Basin potential could multiply Aminex’s value 10× or more.

• Condensate uplift (+15%) and possible oil add further optionality.

• Tanzania’s strong government backing and infrastructure funding reduce project risk.

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📌 Closing Line:
“The discovered reserves at Ntorya are already valuable — but the 16+ Tcf potential of the Ruvuma Basin is what could truly transform Aminex. With condensate and oil as additional prizes, the long-term upside is not just incremental, but potentially transformational.”

What Is Aminex’s 0.4 Tcf of Gas Really Worth?

Breaking down Ntorya’s discovered resources, gas pricing, and billions in potential sales revenue.

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Asking the Question

In our first two articles we compared Ntorya’s discovered gas with Cove Energy’s 2012 sale, and then explored the much larger basin upside. But let’s pause on a simpler, practical question:

“If Aminex’s share of Ntorya is ~0.4 Tcf recoverable, what could that actually be worth in revenue?”

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The Price of Tanzanian Gas

Gas in Tanzania is not sold at global LNG prices but at regulated domestic tariffs. Still, the market is attractive because:

• The Gas Sales Agreement (GSA) for Ntorya is already signed.

• Demand is guaranteed: gas will feed directly into power plants and industrial users via the Madimba plant and national grid.

• Industrial tariffs have been reported around $6.10 per thousand cubic feet (Mcf) — reflecting a blend of state-regulated pricing and the premium paid by industry.

• For sensitivity, we can also consider a lower $4.00/Mcf base case (a conservative benchmark for domestic gas).

(Orca Exploration’s 2023 results showed average realised prices above $6, which reinforces the higher case as realistic.)

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Step 1: How Much Gas is 0.4 Tcf?

• 1 Tcf = 1,000,000,000,000 cubic feet.

• 0.4 Tcf = 400,000,000,000 cubic feet.

• In units of 1,000 cubic feet (Mcf):

  • 400,000,000,000 ÷ 1,000 = 400,000,000 Mcf.

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Step 2: Apply the Prices

• Base Case $4.00/Mcf

  • 400,000,000 Mcf × $4.00 = $1.6 billion gross revenue.

• Higher Case $6.10/Mcf

  • 400,000,000 Mcf × $6.10 = $2.44 billion gross revenue.

So even Aminex’s 0.4 Tcf net discovered share alone could generate between $1.6bn and $2.4bn gross sales over the life of production.

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Step 3: What Does That Mean for Aminex?

Of course, gross sales are not the same as free cash:

• Tanzania’s Production Sharing Agreement (PSA) splits revenue with the government.

• Capex and opex must be recovered.

• Timings matter — revenues arrive over many years, not in one lump sum.

But the exercise shows something important:

• Even using conservative domestic pricing, Aminex’s discovered gas represents a multi-billion-dollar gross revenue stream.

• Against a current market cap of ~£80m (≈$100m), that scale looks highly attractive.

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Step 4: The Benchmark

To put this in context:

• Orca Exploration reported average realised gas prices of over $6/Mcf last year.

• That aligns neatly with our $6.10/Mcf higher case.

• It reinforces that Ntorya’s gas, once flowing, is likely to achieve pricing toward the higher end of our range.

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Closing Thought

Asking “what is 0.4 Tcf worth?” shows why Ntorya is such a strategic asset. Even before considering the 16+ Tcf upside in the wider basin or the possibility of oil, Aminex’s discovered gas alone equates to billions of dollars in potential sales.

And with TPDC funding the pipeline and infrastructure in place, this value is not a theoretical number — it is linked directly to a contracted market hungry for supply.

For investors, that underlines the simple truth: Ntorya is underpinned by real demand, real contracts, and real scale — and the upside could be far greater.

Beyond Ntorya: Unlocking the 16 Tcf Potential of the Ruvuma Basin

Why future drilling, deeper horizons, and even potential oil could transform Ntorya from a domestic gas play into a basin-scale energy hub.

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From Discovered to Potential

In our previous article we compared Aminex’s current discovered share of Ntorya gas with Cove Energy’s position in Mozambique back in 2012. That comparison was based on today’s proven gas only — roughly 0.4 Tcf net to Aminex.

But Ntorya sits within the wider Ruvuma Basin, a structure that independent assessments and operator mapping suggest could hold 16 Tcf or more of unrisked gas potential.

This is where the real long-term opportunity lies.

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Why Basin Potential Matters

Majors don’t just buy into what has already been booked. The Cove Energy bidding war showed that upside scale is what excites strategic buyers.

• Cove’s 8.5% stake equated to ~5–6 Tcf net when sold.

• If future drilling proves out Ruvuma’s 16+ Tcf potential, Aminex’s 25% stake could represent ~4 Tcf net.

• That’s on par with Cove’s net interest — but onshore, with lower development costs and direct access to a growing domestic market.

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The Jurassic Oil Angle

Ntorya’s story isn’t just about gas. During NT-2 drilling, oil traces were identified in the mud — evidence that deeper horizons could contain liquid hydrocarbons.

Originally, the Chikumbi-1 (CH-1) well was planned to target multiple stacked levels, including the deeper Jurassic formation. The revised location focuses only on gas, reflecting Tanzania’s immediate priority for domestic supply.

But in time, under Full Field Development (FFD), it is reasonable to expect that the Jurassic oil play will be revisited. If proven, this would add an entirely new dimension to Ntorya’s value.

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Tanzania’s Strategic Positioning

Tanzania continues to strengthen its role as an emerging energy hub. Recent announcements of cooperation agreements with Russian firms on oil and gas data-sharing highlight how the country is seeking to attract wider international partnerships.

While this has no direct bearing on Ntorya’s near-term gas project, it underlines that global players are watching the basin — a positive backdrop for future growth and potential transactions.

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The Bigger Picture for Investors

For Aminex shareholders, the significance is clear:

• Current discovered gas underpins near-term production and cash flow.

• Basin potential (16+ Tcf) could ultimately give Aminex’s 25% stake net exposure similar to what Cove Energy enjoyed at the time of its billion-pound sale.

• Oil upside offers an additional prize that is not priced into today’s valuations.

• Government and TPDC backing reduce financial risk on key infrastructure, keeping capital efficiency high.

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Closing Thought

Ntorya today is about gas, CPF construction, and pipeline delivery. But Ntorya tomorrow could be about much more: multi-Tcf basin growth and the possibility of oil.

That dual track of secure near-term gas revenue and longer-term basin-scale upside is what makes the Ruvuma story compelling.

Just as Cove Energy’s 2012 sale proved, when majors see that scale — they act.

From Cove to Ntorya: What a Billion-Pound Gas Deal Could Mean for Aminex

How the Cove Energy sale in 2012 set a precedent — and what a cautious comparison suggests for Ntorya today.

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Looking Back: The Cove Energy Deal

In 2012, Cove Energy became the centre of one of the oil and gas industry’s most closely watched bidding wars. The company held an 8.5% stake in Mozambique’s Ruvuma Offshore Area 1, where giant gas discoveries had been made.

Resource estimates at the time pointed to ~60–75 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of recoverable gas in Area 1, giving Cove a net interest of around 5–6 Tcf.

Both Shell and PTTEP competed fiercely for the prize. PTTEP eventually secured Cove with a £1.2bn ($1.9bn) offer, equal to about £1.8bn in today’s money.

The message was clear: when majors see scale and strategic importance, they are prepared to pay significant premiums.

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How Ntorya Compares Today

Tanzania’s Ntorya gas development is at a different stage and scale, but shares some important parallels:

• Onshore project with lower capital intensity, tied into the domestic grid.

• Gas Sales Agreement in place to supply 40 MMscf/d in the first year.

• Discovered resources of ~1.6–3.45 Tcf gas in place, equating to ~0.7–1.3 Tcf recoverable.

• Aminex 25% stake gives it ~0.4 Tcf net recoverable gas today.

• Pipeline funding covered by TPDC, reducing upfront capex risk for partners.

While smaller in absolute size than Ruvuma Offshore, Ntorya has the advantages of lower costs, faster route to market, and guaranteed domestic demand.

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What a Yardstick Comparison Suggests

Cove’s 5–6 Tcf net stake was bought for £1.2bn. Aminex’s current discovered stake is smaller, but even if you apply Cove-style transaction multiples cautiously, it still points toward valuations in the hundreds of millions of dollars.

That compares with Aminex’s present ~£80m market cap — suggesting that as production ramps and reserves grow, there is room for meaningful upside.

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Tanzania’s Strategic Context

Gas projects like Ntorya sit within a bigger picture. Tanzania is actively expanding its international energy partnerships, including a recent agreement to exchange data with Russian firms on oil and gas opportunities.

While this does not directly affect Ntorya’s early development, it underlines a key point: Tanzania’s energy sector is attracting global attention. That kind of strategic positioning can only strengthen investor confidence in the country’s long-term gas plans.

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Why This Is Just the Beginning

The comparison above is based only on discovered gas at Ntorya today. It does not include:

• The 16+ Tcf unrisked potential identified in the wider Ruvuma Basin.

• The possibility of oil in deeper Jurassic horizons, hinted at during NT-2 drilling.

These longer-term opportunities could transform Ntorya into a basin-scale energy story — just as Ruvuma Offshore did for Mozambique.

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Closing Thought

Cove Energy showed that majors will pay heavily for scale and strategic gas.

Ntorya is not Cove: it is onshore, domestic-focused, and nearer to revenue. But even on a cautious yardstick, Aminex’s stake already points to valuations above today’s market price.

And importantly, this is only the beginning. In our next article, we will explore the much larger upside potential — from multi-Tcf basin resources to the possibility of oil — and why Ntorya could ultimately prove far more significant than today’s numbers suggest.

TPDC’s Coastal Gas Push: 2000+ Industries, 102 km Pipeline, and the Strategic Role of Ntorya

 

President’s official announcement signals a major acceleration in Tanzania’s domestic industrial gas demand — here’s why it matters for investors.

1. The Announcement: Straight from the Top

On her official Facebook account, Tanzania’s President has outlined an ambitious new natural gas initiative.
Frame-by-frame translation of the video text reveals:

• “TPDC opens doors of 2000+ industries to natural gas on the coast”

• “TPDC to build 102 km pipeline from Dar es Salaam to Chalinze”

• “2000+ industries to be established in Kwala Strategic Zone”

This is not speculative commentary. It’s a direct communication from the country’s highest political office, signalling official intent and policy direction.

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2. Project Overview

The announcement contains three intertwined elements:

1. 102 km Gas Pipeline (Dar es Salaam → Chalinze)

   • Extends the existing national gas grid north from Dar.

   • Likely to connect with or support future Dar–Mombasa pipeline plans.

   • Includes a branch to Kwala for industrial supply and export handling.

2. Kwala Strategic Industrial Zone

   • Envisioned as a major manufacturing hub with 2000+ industries.

   • Positioned as a cornerstone of Tanzania’s industrialisation and export strategy.

3. Integration with Regional Energy Trade

   • Although not stated in the video, previous planning documents have referenced the Dar–Mombasa subsea pipeline (with connections to Tanga and Zanzibar), indicating regional export ambitions.

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3. Why This Matters: The Demand Shock

The scale of ambition is enormous.
For context:

• In August 2024, TPDC reported only 56 industries connected to the national gas system.

• Moving from 56 to 2000+ represents a 35-fold increase in industrial connections.

• Even at a conservative 1 MMscf/d per industry, this would imply 2000 MMscf/d of new industrial demand — multiples of Tanzania’s current total production.

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4. Current Supply Reality

Existing Production

• Songo Songo: Small offshore field; mature and declining.

• Mnazi Bay: Producing but with limited reserves and long-standing commercial disputes.

Offshore LNG Megaprojects

• Shell and Equinor-led developments remain in negotiation stage.

• First gas unlikely before the early 2030s.

Implication

The government’s own timelines for industrial build-out mean it cannot wait for offshore LNG.
It must rely on near-term, scalable, onshore resources — and that puts Ntorya in the spotlight.

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5. Ntorya’s Strategic Position

• Resource scale: Independent estimates show Ntorya’s gas in place sufficient for multi-decade supply at hundreds of MMscf/d.

• Infrastructure: Pipeline to Madimba under EPC contract, with CNPC leading — first gas expected mid-2026.

• Commercial terms: Aminex fully carried to ~$40m net, with a more favourable PSA than industry norms.

• Market linkage: Named as primary supplier for the Mtwara LNG project (400 → 1,200 MMscf/d).

• Ramp-up plan: 14-well programme targeting 420 MMscf/d capacity.

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6. From Dar to Kwala: The Corridor Effect

The new Dar–Chalinze pipeline creates an industrial corridor:

• Dar: Tanzania’s commercial hub.

• Chalinze: Strategic road and rail junction.

• Kwala: New manufacturing and logistics hub.

This corridor could act as a gas demand anchor in the same way industrial zones drive pipeline economics in other countries. Once in place, the network can:

• Supply large anchor customers.

• Spur smaller industrial users along the route.

• Serve as a feed point for regional exports to Kenya and beyond.

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7. Investment Implications

Short-Term

• The President’s announcement provides political cover for accelerating infrastructure approvals.

• Market sentiment could improve as investors see government-backed demand pipelines emerging in parallel with Ntorya’s development.

Medium-Term

• Demand growth in the Kwala zone could outpace initial Ntorya production, giving Aminex and its partners strong pricing leverage — especially for industrial sales (which Orca’s 2024 data shows average $8.45/MMBtu).

Long-Term

• If the 2000+ industry target is even half-met, Tanzania will require multiple hundreds of MMscf/d of new supply, creating room for both domestic sales and LNG exports.

• Ntorya could transition from being one supplier among many to being the critical swing producer in the domestic market.

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8. Risks and Realism

• Execution risk: Government timelines for industrial build-out have historically slipped.

• Funding: The 69.6 billion shilling allocation for the 102 km pipeline (~$26.5M USD) covers construction but not necessarily all ancillary infrastructure.

• Demand pacing: While 2000+ industries is the target, actual connections will likely ramp gradually.

However, policy intent is clear, and the infrastructure moves are real enough to warrant investor attention now.

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9. Bottom Line for Investors

The President’s public endorsement of a 102 km coastal pipeline and a 2000+ industry Kwala zone signals a new phase in Tanzania’s energy and industrial policy.
For Aminex and Ntorya, it means:

• Locked-in demand growth that fits perfectly with Ntorya’s production timeline.

• Pricing upside from industrial sales into a market with tightening supply.

• Strategic positioning as the only near-term, large-scale onshore resource capable of meeting these targets.

At today’s sub-2p share price, the market is valuing Aminex as if these policy shifts didn’t exist. If execution follows even half of the announced plan, that disconnect won’t last.

From 80p to £1.35: Rising Gas Prices Supercharge Ntorya’s Valuation Potential

 

Orca’s 2024 realised prices reveal a higher-value demand mix, doubling Aminex’s projected upside in the 14-well scenario.

When we modelled Ntorya’s long-term value earlier this year, our 14-well, 420 MMscfd case used conservative gas prices of $3.50–$5.50/MMBtu. That produced impressive numbers — with some scenarios approaching 80p per share.

But the latest Orca Energy 2024 annual report changes the game. It shows:

• Gas-to-power: $3.88/MMBtu

• Gas-to-industry: $8.45/MMBtu

• Weighted average realised: $4.95/MMBtu

Many of Ntorya’s likely buyers — CNG stations, GTL, fertilizer, LNG trucking hubs — fall into the higher-priced industrial category. Using blended scenarios based on Orca’s real-world data lifts our projections dramatically:

• 50/50 industrial/power blend = $6.17/MMBtu

• 70% industrial blend = $7.08/MMBtu

• 80% industrial blend = $7.54/MMBtu

Applying these to our 14-well, 420 MMscfd case with a 40% effective cash entitlement to Aminex, the implied share price potential jumps from ~80p to as high as £1.35 at standard market earnings multiples.

This isn’t pie-in-the-sky speculation — it’s grounded in realised Tanzanian gas prices from a peer producer and in Ntorya’s planned production profile. With the Mtwara LNG project naming Ntorya as its primary supply source and multiple high-value industrial markets lining up, the revenue mix could lean heavily toward premium-priced sales.

For investors, the takeaway is simple: as the demand mix shifts towards industry and transport, Ntorya’s economics strengthen — and the gap between current market price and intrinsic value widens.

Updated Orca-Based Valuation:

Our original 14-well, 420 MMscfd projections used conservative gas price assumptions of $3.50–$5.50/MMBtu. However, Orca Energy’s 2024 report confirms a weighted average realised price of $4.95, with a $3.88/Mcf gas-to-power rate and an $8.45/Mcf gas-to-industry rate. Applying blended scenarios of $6.17 (50/50), $7.08 (70% industrial), and $7.54 (80% industrial) lifts projected share price outcomes significantly across all market multiples. At the upper end, the industrial-heavy blends more than double the implied valuation compared to our earlier chart, reinforcing the bullish case for Ntorya’s earnings potential as higher-value industrial demand ramps up.

Tanzania’s Energy Infrastructure Surge Sets the Stage for Explosive Gas Demand

EWURA’s 109-permit wave, CNG expansion, and major industrial projects point to a multi-year growth engine for Ntorya gas.

Tanzania’s downstream energy build-out is gathering serious momentum. The Energy and Water Utilities Regulatory Authority’s (EWURA) latest Batch 244 public notice lists 109 mid- and downstream petroleum permit applications, covering:

• Kibali cha Ujenzi wa Kituo cha Mafuta – construction permits for fuel stations

• Leseni ya Kituo cha Mafuta – licences to operate fuel stations

• Leseni ya Usambazaji wa Gesi ya Kupikia – explicit LPG distribution licences

• Other infrastructure-related activities

While the notice does not explicitly label these stations as CNG, the timing, policy direction, and presence of known energy brands such as Puma Energy suggest that many could be CNG-capable — aligning with the government’s goal for a majority-CNG vehicle fleet by 2050.

This is in addition to seven CNG stations already under construction, mobile CNG units being rolled out, Rashal Energies’ plan for 30 CNG stations, and Gazprom’s reported market entry. The transport fuel mix is evolving fast — and CNG infrastructure can be built in months, not years.

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Why This Matters for Gas Demand

Even at a conservative average of 2 MMscf/d per site, if a significant share of these 109 permitted stations are CNG-capable, they could add well over 150 MMscf/d of demand once operational. This is highly modular demand that can scale quickly, complementing larger, longer-lead projects.

CNG is only one part of the demand stack. Other confirmed and emerging gas consumers include:

• Aspin Energy / Escom Power Plant (Malawi) – 142 MW natural gas-fired plant using Tanzanian gas from March 2026 (~30 MMscf/d)

• Rocky Mountain GTL Plant – $420M gas-to-liquids facility producing diesel and jet fuel (~25–30 MMscf/d)

• ESSA Fertilizer Plant – Targeting 70 MMscf/d by 2027–2029, potentially supplementing Mnazi Bay supply

• Mtwara LNG Project – $4.5B state-backed export and regional distribution hub, starting at 400 MMscf/d and scaling to 1,200 MMscf/d, with Ntorya named as primary supplier

Taken together, these represent layered, long-term, and scalable demand — reducing offtake risk for upstream producers and creating multiple market channels.

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Aminex’s Strategic Position

For Aminex and its carried 25% interest in the Ntorya field, the convergence of infrastructure rollout and industrial demand is transformational:

• Fully carried to ~$40M net, removing capital burden in development

• Favourable PSA terms compared to industry norms, increasing effective revenue share

• Pipeline to Madimba under construction, de-risking first gas timelines

• Direct link to high-value offtake via Mtwara LNG and industrial markets

With scalable production — and the ability to grow beyond 280 MMscf/d — Aminex sits at the heart of Tanzania’s domestic energy transition and export growth ambitions.

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Investor View: More Than Just “Potential”

The EWURA permit wave is not an aspirational policy statement — it is a regulatory step that clears the way for real companies spending real capital on fuel and gas infrastructure. Add in signed EPC contracts, pipeline works, and the state-backed LNG plan naming Ntorya as a primary supplier, and you have tangible progress.

Near-term catalysts include:

• Physical confirmation of pipeline ground-breaking

• PURA approval to accelerate the Chikumbi-1 rig tender

• Additional industrial offtake agreements

With the current share price still below 2p, these could drive sharp re-ratings.

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Bottom line:
Tanzania’s downstream build-out, rising industrial gas prices, and LNG export positioning create a market capable of absorbing — and paying premium rates for — every molecule Ntorya can produce. For Aminex, the building blocks for a multi-year growth story are already falling into place.

Aminex Awakens: Fueling Tanzania’s Natural Gas Boom

 

Aminex PLC: At the Heart of Tanzania’s Gas Revolution

With booming domestic demand and a $4.5B LNG project citing Ntorya as a primary supply source, Aminex is poised for a transformational leap.

Aminex PLC is emerging as a quiet powerhouse in East Africa’s natural gas revolution, and recent developments suggest that the company may be significantly undervalued and underappreciated. With two major announcements shaking up the energy landscape in Tanzania, Aminex finds itself in a uniquely strategic position — one that could dramatically reshape its future and market perception.

Gas-Powered Public Transport: A Signal of Growing Demand

In a bold push toward sustainable urban mobility, Tanzania has welcomed the arrival of 99 new natural gas–powered buses — the first phase of a planned fleet of 755. These buses will serve Dar es Salaam’s expanding BRT network, with an additional 250 buses already confirmed for delivery.

This isn’t just about transport — it’s a strong signal from the Tanzanian government that natural gas is set to play a central role in the country’s energy strategy. This is the kind of demand surge that companies like Aminex, with proven gas reserves and infrastructure development underway, are perfectly positioned to meet. As public and private sectors transition toward cleaner energy, the local market for gas is heating up — and Aminex is right in the middle of it.

The Mtwara LNG Project: A Game-Changer

While the bus news is significant, the real game-changer is the newly announced Mtwara LNG project — a $4.5 billion mega-development with truly global ambitions. This isn’t a pipe dream. It’s a state-supported initiative involving key players such as Tanzania’s national petroleum corporation. And critically, Ntorya — the onshore gas field where Aminex holds a carried 25% interest — is listed as the primary supply source for this massive LNG and CNG infrastructure rollout.

The Mtwara project aims to start with 3 million tonnes per annum of LNG production (equivalent to around 400 million standard cubic feet of gas per day), scaling to 9 MTPA over time. It will serve both domestic and regional needs, with distribution hubs planned across Tanzania, Kenya, Zambia, the DRC, Mozambique, and beyond — even targeting exports to Asia. It’s a pan-African clean energy corridor with real momentum, and Aminex’s Ntorya field is the backbone.

Strategic Alignment and Market Potential

Put simply, Aminex is no longer just a junior energy company sitting on a gas discovery. It’s now a key player in Tanzania’s rapidly developing energy infrastructure — both for domestic consumption and international export. With its costs covered through carried interest, its resource positioned near the coast, and a state-endorsed demand engine forming around it, Aminex is ideally placed for long-term success.

For investors, this is a rare moment: the stars are aligning, and the market has yet to fully catch on. Aminex’s story is no longer just about proven reserves — it’s about strategic importance, national energy transformation, and regional opportunity.

As Tanzania turns up the heat on gas-led development, Aminex may well be one of the sector’s biggest beneficiaries.

#AEX 📈 Shard Capital Upgrades Aminex Price Target to 3.25–3.70p: A New Phase Begins

In a newly released note, Shard Capital has significantly upgraded its 12-month price target for Aminex PLC, citing the company’s transition from speculation to execution. With construction now underway on the $50 million Ntorya–Madimba pipeline, the path to production is clearer than ever.

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🧱 It’s No Longer “If”—It’s “When”

Shard opens their report with a bold shift in tone:

“It is no longer IF, but WHEN…”

That sentiment reflects the milestone announcement on July 7, when Tanzania’s TPDC confirmed investment in the pipeline, connecting Aminex’s Ntorya field to national gas infrastructure.

This development transforms Aminex’s narrative—turning a high-risk frontier explorer into a tangible energy growth story, linked to the rise of East Africa’s economy.

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🎯 New Valuation Target: 3.25p–3.70p

• Previous target: ~2.3p

• New 12-month target: 3.25p to 3.70p

  • Low-end: Assumes Ntorya production ramps to 280 MMscf/d by 2036

  • High-end: Assumes plateau is reached three years earlier, by 2033

This revaluation reflects faster expected development and improving investor confidence.

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🔍 Peak Valuation: 6p–7p Based on NPV

Shard goes even further with its long-term outlook:

“We currently estimate a peak NPV/share value in the range of 6p to 7p as the company reaches its peak production.”

This figure factors in full plateau production and future field development (Phase 2), making Aminex particularly attractive for long-term growth investors.

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⚙️ What Will Drive Short-Term Re-Rating?

Shard identifies two key catalysts that could drive further upside within the next 12 months:

1. Visible progress on the pipeline

2. Successful drilling of the Chikumbi‑1 (CH‑1) well

Both are scheduled to occur before mid‑2026, aligning with Aminex’s roadmap to first cash flow.

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📣 Final Takeaway for Investors

With pipeline construction confirmed and the CH‑1 drill now scheduled ahead of first gas, Aminex has entered its most investable phase to date. Shard Capital’s latest analysis reflects this turning point, offering institutional-grade endorsement of the company’s trajectory.

🔺 Target Range: 3.25p–3.70p

🚀 Peak Potential: 6p–7p/share

For investors aligned with East African energy growth, the case for Aminex has never been clearer.