Orca’s 2024 realised prices reveal a higher-value demand mix, doubling Aminex’s projected upside in the 14-well scenario.
When we modelled Ntorya’s long-term value earlier this year, our 14-well, 420 MMscfd case used conservative gas prices of $3.50–$5.50/MMBtu. That produced impressive numbers — with some scenarios approaching 80p per share.
But the latest Orca Energy 2024 annual report changes the game. It shows:
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Gas-to-power: $3.88/MMBtu
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Gas-to-industry: $8.45/MMBtu
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Weighted average realised: $4.95/MMBtu
Many of Ntorya’s likely buyers — CNG stations, GTL, fertilizer, LNG trucking hubs — fall into the higher-priced industrial category. Using blended scenarios based on Orca’s real-world data lifts our projections dramatically:
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50/50 industrial/power blend = $6.17/MMBtu
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70% industrial blend = $7.08/MMBtu
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80% industrial blend = $7.54/MMBtu
Applying these to our 14-well, 420 MMscfd case with a 40% effective cash entitlement to Aminex, the implied share price potential jumps from ~80p to as high as £1.35 at standard market earnings multiples.
This isn’t pie-in-the-sky speculation — it’s grounded in realised Tanzanian gas prices from a peer producer and in Ntorya’s planned production profile. With the Mtwara LNG project naming Ntorya as its primary supply source and multiple high-value industrial markets lining up, the revenue mix could lean heavily toward premium-priced sales.
For investors, the takeaway is simple: as the demand mix shifts towards industry and transport, Ntorya’s economics strengthen — and the gap between current market price and intrinsic value widens.
Updated Orca-Based Valuation:
Our original 14-well, 420 MMscfd projections used conservative gas price assumptions of $3.50–$5.50/MMBtu. However, Orca Energy’s 2024 report confirms a weighted average realised price of $4.95, with a $3.88/Mcf gas-to-power rate and an $8.45/Mcf gas-to-industry rate. Applying blended scenarios of $6.17 (50/50), $7.08 (70% industrial), and $7.54 (80% industrial) lifts projected share price outcomes significantly across all market multiples. At the upper end, the industrial-heavy blends more than double the implied valuation compared to our earlier chart, reinforcing the bullish case for Ntorya’s earnings potential as higher-value industrial demand ramps up.
