Aminex: From Acorn to Oak – Chapter 7: The Ruvuma Basin Story

Ntorya’s promise and the wells that proved it

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If Kiliwani North was Aminex’s proof of concept, the Ruvuma basin was always the real prize. Stretching across southern Tanzania and into Mozambique, this frontier play had the scale to change the company’s future — if it could be unlocked.

The first breakthrough came in 2012 with the drilling of Ntorya-1 (NT-1). The well flowed at around 20 MMcfd of gas, with light condensate. For the first time, Aminex had a discovery of material size — one that could support development rather than just prove hydrocarbons existed.

Five years later, in 2017, the partners drilled Ntorya-2 (NT-2). This wasn’t just a repeat exercise — it was confirmation. NT-2 flowed at rates above 17 MMcfd and extended the known limits of the reservoir, it even brought the excitement of oil shows in the mud cuttings! With two wells delivering strong results, independent assessments began to point to hundreds of billions of cubic feet, and potentially over a trillion cubic feet, of gas in place.

For Aminex, NT-1 and NT-2 were transformational. Together they showed that Ruvuma wasn’t a marginal basin — it was one of East Africa’s most exciting undeveloped gas assets. But success brought a new problem.

Big discoveries demand big money. Building a processing plant, drilling more wells, and laying a pipeline to Madimba would cost hundreds of millions of dollars. For a junior like Aminex, already stretched by years of exploration, that scale of capex was impossible to fund alone.

It left the company at a crossroads: hold onto the prize and risk running out of money, or bring in a heavyweight partner with the resources to carry it forward..

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The Ntorya discoveries proved the potential. The next challenge was to secure the funding and expertise to turn them into production.

➡️ Next time: Chapter Eight — Farm-out & Transformation. We’ll follow how Aminex brought in ARA Petroleum, secured a $35m+ free carry, and positioned itself for a share of future cashflow without the burden of development costs.

Why the Aminex Ntorya CPF Remains Critical — Even with a Raw Gas Pipeline to Madimba

Why Ntorya still needs a CPF—explaining the critical role of field-level gas treatment before transport to Madimba via the raw pipeline.

Following questions about the need for a Central Processing Facility (CPF) at Ntorya — after it became known that the pipeline to Madimba is a raw natural gas pipeline — further investigation confirms that the CPF remains a critical component of Tanzania’s two-stage gas infrastructure.

Understanding the true function of a “raw” pipeline clarifies the issue.

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What Is a Raw Pipeline?

In industry terms, a raw natural gas pipeline — also known as a gathering line — transports unprocessed gas from wellheads to a processing plant. This gas can include water, condensates, sand, carbon dioxide, and other impurities. These pipelines are typically lower-pressure, shorter-distance systems designed to collect gas before it is made pipeline-quality.

In contrast, a natural gas transmission pipeline carries fully processed, dry gas over long distances at high pressures to power stations, cities, and industries.

The planned pipeline from Ntorya to Madimba fits squarely into the “raw pipeline” category: it connects a producing field to a processing plant. But it does not remove the need for initial gas conditioning before transport.

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Why the CPF Is Still Essential

The CPF (Central Processing Facility) at Ntorya performs field-level processing that is critical to both safety and system efficiency:

1. Protecting the Pipeline

• Raw gas straight from the well can contain sand, water, and condensates.

• These materials are highly corrosive and abrasive, and transporting them through 30–35 km of steel pipeline without separation can lead to blockages, corrosion, and operational failures.

2. Compression for Flow

• The CPF compresses the gas to the correct pressure for transport to Madimba.

• Without compression, gas may not flow reliably over the required distance, especially as volumes scale.

3. Dehydration & Impurity Removal

• Moisture in gas can condense and form hydrates in the pipeline — a major flow assurance issue.

• The CPF dehydrates the gas and removes solid or liquid impurities to meet minimum entry standards for transport.

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What Happens at Madimba?

The Madimba Gas Processing Plant, located near Mtwara, is a central hub in Tanzania’s national gas system. It performs:

• Final purification: Removal of CO₂, acid gases, and any residual water.

• Blending: Mixing gas streams from Ntorya, Songo Songo, and Mnazi Bay.

• Metering & Dispatch: Delivering pipeline-grade gas into the national transmission system.

Madimba expects partially treated gas, not unfiltered output from a wellhead. Its infrastructure is not designed to manage raw contaminants at scale — that is the role of the CPF.

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Industry Standard Practice

Globally, two-stage gas processing is the norm:

1. Field-Level CPF: Performs initial treatment, especially of liquids, sand, and basic impurities.

2. Processing Plant: Conducts final conditioning and prepares gas for transmission.

Trying to send untreated gas directly from a wellhead to a central plant 30+ kilometers away is a shortcut that risks damaging infrastructure, reducing uptime, and ultimately impacting commercial viability.

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Conclusion: The CPF Is the Enabler, Not a Redundancy

The fact that a raw gas pipeline connects Ntorya to Madimba does not make the CPF optional — in fact, it reinforces its necessity. The CPF ensures that:

• Gas flows efficiently and safely through the raw pipeline.

• Infrastructure integrity is protected from corrosive and abrasive elements.

• Ntorya can scale up production with operational stability and minimal risk.

In simple terms: the CPF is not bypassed by the raw pipeline — it feeds it. Together, they create a robust, flexible, and expandable gas delivery system for Tanzania’s future energy needs.

Aminex Gears Up for 2026 Gas Production with Pipeline, CPF & Drilling Momentum

Key infrastructure moves from planning to action as Ntorya gas strategy accelerates

Aminex PLC is entering a transformational phase in Tanzania’s Ruvuma Basin as construction and drilling preparations advance toward first gas in 2026. With the full backing of the Tanzanian government and TPDC, the Ntorya development is finally gathering visible momentum—offering long-term value upside for shareholders.

🚧 Pipeline & CPF: A 30 km Link to Market

The 30-kilometre gas pipeline connecting Ntorya to the Madimba Gas Plant has been awarded to industry heavyweight China Petroleum Pipeline Engineering (CPPE), with equipment from CPTDC.

• Mobilisation begins: September 2025

• Pipelaying window: January to July 2026

• Project completion: By July 2026

The Central Processing Facility (CPF) will be built at Ntorya, ensuring direct feed into Tanzania’s national gas infrastructure.

For context: a 30 km pipeline is modest in scale for CPPE, which routinely handles 500+ km builds globally. This adds further confidence in timeline discipline.

🛠️ Drilling Plans: Rig Options & Timeline

Following PURA’s approval of the rig tender strategy in August 2025, the operator ARA Petroleum has already issued Expressions of Interest (EOIs)—ahead of schedule.

Candidate rigs include:

• Exalo Rig 202 – active in Zimbabwe; likely available late 2025 after Invictus campaign

• PR Marriott rigs – currently in Kenya

• Nabors rigs – in Uganda

• ARA’s own Oman-based fleet – with three active rigs that could redeploy within 3+ months

🎯 Drill Timing:

• Optimistic spud: December 2025

• More likely: January–February 2026

🌍 Government Support + Investor Upside

With a 25-year Development Licence in hand and the full cooperation of Tanzanian authorities, Aminex stands to benefit from:

• Favourable PSA terms

• 50% annual cost recovery from production revenues

• Strong local partnerships through TPDC and regional contractors

📊 Resource Potential: Strong Base, Big Upside

• Certified 2C net reserves: ~0.4 Tcf

• Full basin potential: Estimated 16+ Tcf, with up to 4 Tcf net to Aminex

• Condensate uplift: Up to +15% revenue enhancement

• Oil shows at Ntorya-2 add further exploratory upside

🎨 What’s Next on the Blog

Expect regular updates with simplified graphics, clean infographics, and clear investor messaging. We'll track:

• Pipeline milestones

• CPF progress

• Drilling mobilisation

• Project economics and PSA mechanics

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🔎 Bottom Line

The pieces are falling into place. Aminex is closer than ever to unlocking substantial long-term value at Ntorya—and 2026 is shaping up to be the inflection point.

Stay tuned for more updates as we track every move toward first gas.

Aminex: The Ruvuma Basin Potential That Could Transform Ntorya

Beyond current reserves — how 16+ Tcf of gas, condensate uplift, and possible oil could multiply Aminex’s value many times over.

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1. From Current to Future

So far, our valuation discussions have been based only on 0.4 Tcf net to Aminex, which is the currently recoverable gas booked at Ntorya. That alone already suggests strong upside to today’s share price.

But the real long-term prize is the Ruvuma Basin itself, where independent assessments point to 16+ Tcf unrisked potential.

If the mapped ~16+ Tcf unrisked potential were progressively proved up during Full Field Development, Aminex’s 25% stake could reach up to 4 Tcf net — ten times larger than today’s discovered share! Even partial success (say 25–50% of that potential) would still lift Aminex’s net exposure to roughly 1–2 Tcf, materially above today’s booked ~0.2–0.4 Tcf.

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2. The Numbers — Scaling Up

Let’s use the same pricing assumptions as before:

• Base Case: $4.00/Mcf (domestic tariff)

• High Case: $6.10/Mcf (industrial tariff)

For 4 Tcf net to Aminex:

• Base Case → ~$16 billion gross sales

• High Case → ~$24.4 billion gross sales

Even after PSA splits (conservatively assuming 55–60% government take, though Aminex has agreed favourable terms), that still implies:

• $6.8–10.4 billion net to contractors

• $1.7–2.6 billion net to Aminex

Divide by 4.22 billion shares:

• Base Case ~31p/share

• High Case ~47p/share

That’s an order of magnitude higher than today’s 1.95p.

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3. Condensate Uplift & Oil Potential

The basin story is not only about gas:

• Condensate uplift: Ntorya gas is expected to carry ~15% additional liquids value, providing a premium revenue stream on top of gas sales.

• Oil upside: Drilling at NT-2 encountered oil shows in the mud, suggesting a deeper Jurassic oil play exists. If confirmed in later phases, this could open a whole new layer of value.

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4. Why Investors Care

Cove Energy’s billion-pound sale in 2012 showed that when majors see multi-Tcf scale, they pay heavily for it. Ntorya is onshore, with lower costs and direct access to Tanzania’s growing market — factors that make it even more attractive strategically.

Long-term holders believe much of the 16+ Tcf potential will be proved up, turning Ntorya from a domestic gas play into a basin-scale energy hub with regional importance.

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5. The Investor Takeaway

• Current reserves justify near-term upside.

• Basin potential could multiply Aminex’s value 10× or more.

• Condensate uplift (+15%) and possible oil add further optionality.

• Tanzania’s strong government backing and infrastructure funding reduce project risk.

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📌 Closing Line:
“The discovered reserves at Ntorya are already valuable — but the 16+ Tcf potential of the Ruvuma Basin is what could truly transform Aminex. With condensate and oil as additional prizes, the long-term upside is not just incremental, but potentially transformational.”

Aminex: What Ntorya’s Gas Could Mean for the Share Price

From current reserves to full-field potential, a closer look at revenues, PSA terms, and cost recovery.

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1. Headline Upside — The Big Picture

Aminex’s share of currently recoverable Ntorya gas is estimated at ~0.4 Tcf.

Using a base case domestic tariff of $4.00/Mcf and a higher industrial price of $6.10/Mcf, the gross lifetime sales values come to:

• Base Case $4.00 → $1.6 billion

• High Case $6.10 → $2.44 billion

With 4.22 billion shares in issue, that equates to headline values of:

• 28.8p per share (base)

• 43.9p per share (high)

👉 These are gross, pre-PSA figures, but they show why investors get excited: even the currently booked reserves generate multi-billion-dollar numbers.

And this is before considering condensate uplift, oil upside, or basin-wide volumes.

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2. PSA-Adjusted Reality — Still Attractive

Tanzanian PSAs normally allocate around 55–60% of profit gas to government/TPDC. However, Aminex has publicly highlighted that favourable conditions have been agreed in the amended PSA (commercially sensitive and not disclosed in detail).

That means the actual government take could be less onerous than the typical model — but even on conservative assumptions:

• Base Case ~3.0p/share

• High Case ~4.7p/share

versus the current 1.95p share price.

That’s 50–140% upside — based only on what is currently recoverable.

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3. How Cost Recovery Works (Capex & Opex)

A common misconception is that capex and opex simply reduce Aminex’s share. Under Tanzania’s PSA, that isn’t true.

• Operators can recover up to 50% of gross annual revenues as “Cost Gas”.

• This applies to both capex and opex until all are fully repaid.

• Unrecovered balances roll forward each year until cleared.

Example:

Suppose capex is $250m, and annual revenues are $200m.

• Year 1: $100m recovered (50% of $200m)

• Year 2: another $100m recovered

• Year 3: $50m recovered → capex fully paid off

From then on, more of the revenue flows directly as profit gas.

Opex is treated the same way — recoverable under the 50% annual ceiling — which means operating costs are also reimbursed before the profit split.

👉 This is why cost recovery actually improves early cash flows to contractors and ensures long-term netbacks are higher than raw PSA splits suggest.

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4. The True Prize — Full Field Development

Everything so far is based only on ~0.4 Tcf net recoverable to Aminex. But the Ruvuma Basin has an estimated 16+ Tcf unrisked potential.

If proved up during full-field development (FFD):

• Aminex’s 25% stake = ~4 Tcf net

• That’s 10× larger than today’s discovered gas

• On the same multiples, the per-share potential could be 30p–47p turning into 300p–470p

And there’s more:

• Condensate uplift is expected to add ~15% additional value to gas sales.

• Oil shows at NT-2 strongly hint at a deeper Jurassic oil play, which could be targeted in later phases of development.

Long-term holders therefore anticipate not just steady gas monetisation, but a basin-scale growth story with multiple revenue streams.

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5. Investor Takeaway

• Current Recoverables: Already justify upside against today’s 1.95p share price.

• PSA Economics + Cost Recovery: Show Aminex can recoup capex/opex and still achieve strong netbacks.

• Full Field Potential: 16+ Tcf basin, condensate uplift, and possible oil add layers of transformational upside.

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📌 Closing Line for Investors:
“Even using conservative PSA terms, Aminex’s share of Ntorya already implies material upside. With cost recovery mechanisms improving early cash flow, condensate and oil adding extra value, and the 16+ Tcf basin potential still to be proved, the long-term case for Aminex remains one of scale and strategic importance.”

Check in tomorrow when we do the sums based on the full potential of 16+ Tcf

Aminex Update: Pipeline Procurement Underway and Rig Tender Process Accelerates

Following yesterday’s RNS, new disclosures confirm Expressions of Interest for rig services have already been issued — ahead of schedule.

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Yesterday’s RNS: Two Key Milestones

On 27th August, Aminex released an RNS confirming significant operational progress at Ntorya:

• Pipeline:

  • Contractors have begun procurement of pipe and equipment for the 35 km Ntorya–Madimba pipeline.

  • Mobilisation of construction equipment is scheduled for September 2025.

  • Groundwork and pipelaying are due to start in January 2026, with completion by July 2026.

• Rig Tender:

  • The Petroleum Upstream Regulatory Authority (PURA) has approved the tender strategy for a drilling rig.

  • This approval enables drilling of Chikumbi-1 (CH-1) and a workover of Ntorya-1 (NT-1).

  • The RNS stated that Expressions of Interest (EOIs) from service contractors would be requested next week.

• Condensate Discussions:

  • TPDC, APT, and Aminex also discussed the processing and storage of condensate, highlighting an additional revenue stream beyond gas sales.

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Today’s Update: Ahead of Schedule

Less than 24 hours later, it has been confirmed via today’s release on X (formerly Twitter) that the Expressions of Interest have already been issued, a full week earlier than suggested in the RNS.

This over-performance signals:

• Strong operator momentum from APT.

• A clear alignment with Tanzanian regulators and stakeholders.

• A demonstration that the project is moving faster than timelines originally set out.

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Why This Matters for Investors

The combination of pipeline procurement, firm groundwork dates, and now the early launch of the rig tender process creates visible momentum on all fronts:

• De-risked schedule: Procurement and mobilisation show the pipeline is firmly on track.

• Accelerated rig contracting: The early release of EOIs means CH-1 and NT-1 are moving closer to execution.

• Additional upside: Condensate monetisation discussions could provide another layer of value.

This update underscores the Government of Tanzania’s and APT’s commitment to delivering Ntorya gas to the Madimba plant on time — and potentially even ahead of schedule.

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Closing Thought

Investors have long waited to see Ntorya move from planning into visible execution. With procurement underway, mobilisation imminent, and the rig tender already advancing faster than expected, that moment has arrived.

The project is not just progressing — it is gathering pace.

Aminex RNS: Ntorya Operations Update Confirms Pipeline and Rig Milestones

Procurement for the Ntorya–Madimba pipeline begins, groundwork scheduled for January, while PURA approves the rig tender strategy.

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Key Highlights from Today’s RNS

• Pipeline Progress:

  • Contractors have begun procurement of pipe and equipment for the 35 km pipeline linking Ntorya to the Madimba gas processing plant.

  • Mobilisation of construction equipment will begin in September 2025.

  • Groundwork and pipelaying are scheduled to commence in January 2026, with completion targeted by July 2026.

• Condensate Value Addition:

  • Discussions are under way regarding the processing and storage of condensate volumes from Ntorya — an additional revenue stream beyond gas sales.

• Rig Tender Milestone:

  • The Petroleum Upstream Regulatory Authority (PURA) has approved the tender strategy for contracting a drilling rig.

  • The rig will be used to drill Chikumbi-1 (CH-1) and perform a workover on Ntorya-1 (NT-1).

  • Operator APT will request expressions of interest from service contractors next week.

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Why This Matters for Investors

This RNS confirms that multiple strands of Ntorya’s development are advancing in parallel:

• Pipeline: With procurement already under way and a firm mobilisation schedule, the long-discussed link to Madimba has moved from planning to delivery. A clear timeline to completion by July 2026 provides investors with visibility.

• Rig Tender: PURA’s approval is a regulatory green light that allows the operator to advance into contractor engagement. The drilling of CH-1 and the NT-1 workover will expand production capacity beyond NT-2, underpinning volumes for the GSA.

• Condensate: Monetisation of condensate offers upside beyond gas sales, increasing the value of the project.

Together, these steps strengthen confidence that Ntorya is firmly on its way to first gas, with strong backing from TPDC, PURA, and APT.

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Aminex Management Comment

Charles Santos, Executive Chairman, highlighted:

“Our discussions with the TPDC and the operator have been extremely fruitful, and we are delighted that activity on the Pipeline is proceeding as planned… PURA has approved the tender strategy, allowing APT to begin the tender process. These developments demonstrate again the Government of Tanzania’s strong commitment to this project.”

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Investor Takeaway

This update provides:

• Visible progress on the pipeline, with equipment procurement already started.

• Firm dates for mobilisation (Sept 2025), groundwork (Jan 2026), and completion (July 2026).

• Regulatory approval clearing the way for the rig tender and the next phase of drilling.

• Condensate upside adding to the project’s revenue profile.

For shareholders, this RNS delivers the clearest evidence yet that Ntorya’s development is advancing on multiple fronts, backed by Tanzania’s institutions and operator commitment.

Aminex ARA From Field to Grid: Ntorya’s CPF and the Madimba Plant

 

How Tanzania’s two-stage gas system takes Ntorya’s production from the wellhead all the way to homes, power stations, and industry.

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The Two Key Facilities

When Ntorya comes on stream, two plants will play essential but different roles in the journey of its gas. Understanding their functions helps investors see how the system is designed for both safety and scale.

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1. The Ntorya CPF — Field-Level Processing

• Location: At the Ntorya well cluster.

• Role: First-stage treatment, making raw gas suitable for pipeline transport.

• Functions:

  • Separation of gas, water, and condensates.

  • Removal of impurities (sand, liquids).

  • Dehydration to meet pipeline standards.

  • Compression to flow into the 30 km export line.

• Capacity: Designed initially for ~40 MMscf/d, expandable toward 140–280 MMscf/d.

The CPF ensures Ntorya gas leaves the field safely and efficiently.

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2. The Madimba Gas Processing Plant — National Hub

• Location: Near Mtwara, on Tanzania’s southern coast.

• Role: Central treatment and distribution point for southern Tanzania’s gas.

• Functions:

  • Final treatment (removing CO₂, acid gases if present).

  • Metering and blending streams from different fields (Songo Songo, Mnazi Bay, Ntorya).

  • Dispatching gas into the national pipeline grid.

• Capacity: ~210 MMscf/d, expandable.

Madimba ensures gas from multiple sources is blended, metered, and delivered into the grid — powering electricity generation, industries, and domestic users.

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Why Both Are Needed

• The CPF is field-specific — treating Ntorya gas at the source.

• Madimba is system-wide — combining streams and delivering national supply.

• Together, they provide a two-stage assurance: first, that Ntorya gas meets quality standards at source; second, that it is integrated seamlessly into Tanzania’s energy network.

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Investor Perspective

• The CPF is the critical path asset for Ntorya first gas.

• Madimba is the assurance of market access — guaranteeing that once Ntorya flows, there is infrastructure ready to take it.

• This dual system significantly reduces market risk: gas has both a path and a destination.

Aminex: 14-Well Expansion Could Catapult Share Price Beyond 80p

 

With Ntorya gas confirmed as the backbone of Tanzania’s $4.5B LNG vision, Aminex stands poised for a revaluation of historic proportions.

As Tanzania’s energy strategy pivots toward large-scale LNG production, Aminex PLC stands on the verge of a remarkable revaluation. With the newly announced Mtwara LNG project citing the Ntorya gas field as a primary supply source, and plans underway for 14 production wells over the next decade, the fundamentals have shifted dramatically.

Aminex’s carried interest through development, paired with favorable PSA terms, means it could capture as much as 40% of net revenues — far higher than traditional assumptions.

🔍 Projection Highlights

Under a 420 MMscfd production scenario and gas prices ranging from $3.50 to $5.50/MMBtu, share price projections rise sharply based on standard market multiples:

Gas Price ($/MMBtu)	10× Multiple	15× Multiple	20× Multiple
$3.50	42.92p	64.39p	85.85p
$4.50	55.19p	82.78p	110.37p
$5.50	67.46p	101.18p	134.91p

This scenario aligns perfectly with the planned 2026 start of the LNG facility — right as Ntorya begins delivering gas. These projections exclude further upside from condensate sales, carbon credits, or direct-to-industry CNG supply.

In short: the market may be waking up late, but the rerating potential is real, visible, and rapidly approaching a potentially huge ROI.

So let us finish with an important question...

🔍 How Realistic Are 10×, 15×, or 20× Earnings Multiples for Aminex?

✅ 10× Multiple: Conservative but Reasonable

• Widely used for small-cap producers in emerging markets.

• Reflects risks like political environment, currency, and market liquidity.

• Yes, this is realistic, especially post–first gas when cash flow is proven.

✅ 15× Multiple: Aspirational but Justifiable

• Used when:

  • Cash flow is secured via long-term contracts (LNG buyers, industrial offtake),

  • The company has no debt or is carried (like Aminex),

  • Visibility of production growth (14-well plan),

  • Strategic partnerships (TPDC backing, state-supported infrastructure).

• Given Aminex’s clean balance sheet and strategic role, 15× is attainable once production ramps and sentiment builds.

⚠️ 20× Multiple: Stretch, but Not Impossible

• This assumes:

  • Strong market rerating (likely during a retail/speculative surge),

  • Scarcity value (few similar plays in region),

  • Aggressive forecasts of expanded production or pricing upside (e.g., premium LNG contracts).

• Possible during inflection points or speculative runs (e.g., M&A interest, early buyout rumors), but not sustainable without consistent earnings delivery.

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🧠 Rule of Thumb

• Pre-production: Market uses lower multiples or discounts heavily (uncertainty).

• Early production: 8–10× is realistic if cash is flowing and infrastructure is visible.

• Growth + strategic leverage (like LNG export): 12–15× becomes likely.

• Speculative peaks / retail excitement / M&A buzz: 20×+ can happen — but rarely lasts.

Aminex AGM Signals Acceleration:

Aminex AGM Signals Acceleration: CH‑1 Before Pipeline, Phase 2 Plans, and Market-Ready Momentum

For me, this year’s Aminex AGM marked a fundamental shift—not just in tone, but in tempo.

For the first time in years, the Board spoke with conviction and clarity. No ambiguity. No hedging. Just a clear message: Ntorya is entering execution mode, and the drill is coming before the pipeline is complete!

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🔩 “CH‑1 Will Be Drilled Before the Pipeline Is Completed”

No hesitation. No caveats. That is now the base case.

The Board confirmed that all parties—TPDC, ARA, Aminex, and the Tanzanian government—are aligned and urgently pushing to get CH‑1 drilled. PURA’s involvement has been specifically to accelerate rig tendering.

Rig tendering is imminent. While a shared rig with M&P is being discussed, other rigs are in the running—and the Board made it clear that M&P’s timeline would be too late (mid‑2026). In other words: the M&P option may just be negotiation leverage.

Bottom Line:

• TPDC is “pushing like crazy”

• CH‑1 is on the clock

• Phase shift confirmed. Execution starts now.

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📈 CH‑1 Targeting 50 MMscf/d Flow Rate

The Board corrected the assumption of 20 MMscf/d per well:

“CH‑1 is expected to flow at ~50 MMscf/d.”

This well targets a thicker section of the reservoir with stacked pays, including Unit 3—making it much higher impact than NT‑2, which flowed 17 MMscf/d under constrained conditions.

A new CPR (Competent Person’s Report) is expected after CH‑1 or Phase 1 drilling, with upgraded reserves, production profiles, and valuation.

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💧 Condensate Could Add +15% to Project Value

The Board confirmed condensate volumes could deliver ~15% additional value—clean margin revenue, possibly hundreds of millions over the field’s life.

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💸 Gas Pricing Has Built-In Upside

Two key revenue drivers:

1. Inflation clause built into the GSA

2. Higher prices for industrial offtake vs. utility rates

With industrial gas demand rising in Tanzania, Aminex could see surprise upside on realised pricing.

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🔗 ARA Wants Aminex to Stay

Why hasn’t Aminex been bought out or diluted? The Board explained:

• ARA is happy with 75% and sees value in Aminex’s public listing

• The listing provides transparency, valuation, and investor reach

• If ARA wanted Aminex gone, it would’ve happened already

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🚀 Phase 2 Strategy: 280 MMscf/d or Bust

The operator isn’t stopping at Phase 1:

• 6 more wells planned

• Second pipeline to Madimba

• Expanded processing facility

“140 MMscf/d won’t adequately drain the field. 280 MMscf/d brings reserves into production within the license life.”

This is operator-led strategy, not speculative dreaming. Ntorya is being built as a national energy asset.

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🏦 Funding Runway + Cash Flow Timing

• Aminex has used ~50% of its facility, with ~$1.5m available

• Burn rate: ~$1.5m/year, so fully funded for 12 months

• First cash flow expected ~September 2026, once the pipeline is commissioned

Payments will be a mix of USD and Tanzanian Shillings.

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🧾 TPDC to Take 60 MMscf/d Initially

TPDC has committed to 60 MMscf/d of initial offtake, with the rest going to industrial customers. Virtual pipeline, LNG, CNG, mining, manufacturing are all in ARA’s strategy.

Demand is not a concern. Discussions are already underway.

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🧪 NT‑2 Test Still Going Ahead

Despite the focus on CH‑1, the NT‑2 well test is still scheduled before pipeline commissioning. It will confirm deliverability and gas composition (expected 3% CO₂ content—low and manageable).

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📌 TPDC Back-in Rights Still at 15%

The 15% back-in right has not been exercised yet, and that remains the limit under the PSA. Any change would be procedural and expected.

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🔍 Kiliwani, Nyuni, and Exploration Strategy

• Kiliwani is on hold, but still has potential. Seismic planned.

• Nyuni is “too risky” for now. Scale-down and partnership are in progress.

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📣 PR Reset and New Valuation Coming

The Board acknowledged past silence and promised a PR reset:

• Regular updates to resume

• Journalists engaged

• New Shard Capital valuation incoming—expected to be more bullish

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🧠 Final Word: It’s Not “If” Anymore

This AGM didn’t just confirm:

• CH‑1 before pipeline completion

• 50 MMscf/d flow potential

• Phase 2 expansion strategy

It changed the tone of the entire project.

We’re not asking if Ntorya will deliver.
We’re asking how fast, how big, and how long we stay invested.

The above report comes thanks to the attendance at the AGM by Prospero 

Aminex Share Price Triggers - 7 Events to a Multi-Bag Rise?

What is the expected timeline of news events coming from Aminex PLC during the coming twelve months. i.e. events that may trigger a lift in the SP!  What sort of lift (% wise) might each news item bring? Given the current known assets where might we expect the value to be?

So, how do the triggers stack up against what we have seen historically in small cap energy stocks...

Taking into account Aminex’s own projections of $40m net cash flow potential, I  have looked at the possibility of achieving 10p per share under both conservative and bull-case scenarios

The following percentages were based on typical small-cap reaction patterns in frontier gas developments—not strictly on cash flow modelling.

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✅ Can These SP Rises Happen?

Event	Likely SP Impact	Justified by Fundamentals?
Ground breaking	20–30%	Partially—triggers confidence
CH-1 Spud	30–50%	Yes—tied to future cash flows
CH-1 Success	50–80%	Yes—confirms resource potential
First Gas	70–100%	Strongly—actual revenue begins
Condensate Sales	30–50%	Yes—adds new revenue stream
Resource Upgrade	30–60%	Only if tied to faster monetisation
Buyout Speculation	100–200%	Market-driven, not model-driven

🧠 Final View

• These catalysts can move the price strongly—but the justification for long-term value >10p/share requires optimism beyond what current 5-year cash flows support.

• In short: 10p is possible, especially on momentum—but sustainable only with new news, either from condensate, strategic deals, or expanded reserves, which we do expect.

On Friday 11th July 2025 the price closed at 1.48p with a bid price of 1.4p. Assuming the 7 event triggers achieve the rises predicted above; based on the those percentages, what might the SP closing price be?  Both Worst and Best case scenarios...

If all seven major catalysts are successful and the share price reacts as expected, then:

• Worst-case cumulative share price: ~19.9p

• Best-case cumulative share price: ~74.8p

These are compound gains based on historical and speculative reaction ranges—not purely fundamentals. That said, these numbers show how speculative small-cap energy stocks can move dramatically with the right momentum.

Personally I think the first six events are all possible within the next 12 to 18 months, the seventh event is not something I see happening right now but it can't be ruled out long term, however that could be at a much higher SP than we currently have. Even without the seventh event we could be looking slightly under 10p from the worst case figures in a very short space of time.

Conclusion:  There are lots of minor triggers that can build momentum throughout the year and I feel 10p per share is achievable and particularly if the news flow from here remains strong.  With the AGM taking place next week, it is likely we will have an update on the FFD plans which could see another surge in price.  With EPC pipeline contract announced only 11 days ago we have already seen 23% rise from 1.2p to 1.48p and reading elsewhere,  Grok AI is predicting the SP to reach 1.59p within the next fourteen days.  As I conclude 1.52 has just been paid.  

NB: these percentage's are based on my own calculations and are not guaranteed figures. You should always do your own research and make your own decisions.

Ntorya Gas Deal: What Aminex Really Stands to Gain (Gas, Condensate & Long-Term Upside)

With pipeline construction set to begin and first gas targeted for mid-2026, Tanzania’s Ntorya gas project is entering full execution mode. For investors in Aminex PLC, now is the time to understand the full commercial picture—not just the gas volumes, but the growing revenue streams from condensate and long-term field expansion.

Here’s a breakdown of the key financial drivers and what Aminex’s 25% stake actually means in dollar terms.

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🧭 Who’s Involved—and What’s the Deal?

The Ntorya development is governed by a 25-year Production Sharing Agreement (PSA) and a long-term Gas Sales Agreement (GSA) signed in 2024. The parties include:

• TPDC: Tanzania’s national oil company; owns the pipeline and buys the gas.

• ARA Petroleum Tanzania (APT): Project operator with a 75% stake.

• Aminex PLC: Holds 25%, and is fully carried through development (≈$35 m net cost).

How the Revenue Works:

• 12.5% royalty goes to government off the top.

• 50% of the rest is used to recover costs.

• The remaining profit gas is split: a sliding scale gives the contractor 30–40%.

• Aminex gets 25% of the contractor's share.

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🔢 What Kind of Cash Flow?

At a baseline gas price of $3.00/MMBtu, Aminex could earn around:

• $1.4 million in Year 1

• $5 million+ annually by Year 5 as production reaches 140 MMscfd

But that’s not the only scenario. Here’s how cumulative 10-year returns change if gas prices climb.

📊 Gas Price Sensitivity

At $3.45 (the likely GSA price), Aminex could earn $42.6 million over 10 years. At $4.00, that rises to over $49 million.

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🔭 Long-Term Growth: 13 Wells, 280 MMscfd

The field development plan calls for up to 13 wells, targeting a potential production scale-up to 280 MMscfd over 10 years. This could double Aminex’s earnings versus the current 140 MMscfd model.

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🛢️ The Condensate Bonus (Based on $70 per Barrel)

Often overlooked is the valuable condensate discovered alongside Ntorya gas:

• ~3.5 barrels per MMscf based on Ntorya-1 test data

• Up to 20 million barrels in place

• Crucially, TPDC has no claim over condensate—meaning it can be sold at wellhead

At $70 per barrel, condensate alone could earn Aminex nearly $900,000 in Year 1, growing to $3.1 million annually as output scales.

📊 Condensate Revenue Forecast

📌 Note: condensate prices fluctuate based on oil markets, refining demand, and local offtake capacity.

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✅ The Big Picture for Aminex

• Gas: Low-risk, long-term earnings with development costs covered

• Condensate: Pure upside on top of core returns

• Expansion: Real potential to double revenues as new wells are drilled

For a company with modest G&A costs and no debt-linked development risk, Ntorya offers Aminex a rare mix of stability and optionality in a frontier gas economy.