Showing posts with label Investors. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Investors. Show all posts

Tuesday, 30 September 2025

Aminex Turns the Corner: First Gas in Sight and Fresh Life for Kiliwani

Positive signals from the latest Interim Management Report

Friday’s RNS marked a genuine turning point for Aminex. For the first time in years, management has not only confirmed Ntorya’s rapid progress into construction — but also opened the door once again to future activity at Kiliwani and Nyuni. That’s a big statement of intent, and it suggests the company is in a far stronger and more confident position than many might have expected.

A Stronger Foundation

Executive Chairman Charles Santos set the tone clearly:

“The Ntorya Gas Development has now advanced definitively into its construction phase, following the award of the Ntorya-Madimba pipeline contract. This milestone has in turn catalysed wider activity on the ground and across the project.”

This is not vague promise; it is pipeline contracts awarded, procurement already under way, and a clear timetable: pipelaying begins January 2026, with first gas targeted for mid-year.

Ntorya isn’t a small play. With a 35-year horizon, production is expected to hit a plateau of 280 MMcfd — more than Tanzania’s current total output. Initial production from NT-1, NT-2 and CH-1 alone is expected at 60 MMcfd, with revenues for Aminex to follow swiftly thanks to the free carry deal still in place.

The Importance of Seismic and Planning

APT’s expanded Field Development Plan was built on the 338 km² of 3D seismic shot in 2022–2023. This data has given unprecedented clarity, derisking the next phases and cementing Ntorya as the largest onshore gas development in East Africa.

For Aminex shareholders, this means a foundation not just for near-term revenue, but for sustained value over decades.

Kiliwani and Nyuni Back on the Agenda

Perhaps the most striking part of the statement was this:

“Once Ntorya production and revenues are established, Aminex expects to refocus on the Kiliwani North Development Licence and the Nyuni Area PSA.”

This is the first time in several years that Kiliwani has featured in company messaging. The fact it is being brought back into the conversation now signals renewed ambition. A targeted 3D seismic programme at Kiliwani and a reshaped Nyuni work programme could add a further leg of growth — and importantly, the confidence to talk about them is itself a sign of strength.

Lean and Supported

Financially, Aminex remains disciplined. Operating costs are just $0.92m for the period, with Eclipse Investments continuing to provide backing via a $3m working capital facility. Crucially, the 2020 farm-out still means Aminex is carried through development costs until revenue arrives — removing risk and preserving upside.

Outlook: Momentum and Delivery

The company closes the half-year with momentum firmly on its side. The preparatory phase is complete. Construction is under way. Gas sales are on the horizon. And for the first time in years, Aminex is openly signalling its intention to go beyond Ntorya.

That is why Friday’s RNS matters. It’s not just about timelines and contracts — it’s about confidence. The mention of Kiliwani is a reminder that Aminex’s story is bigger than one field, and that management is now looking further down the road with optimism.

Friday, 26 September 2025

Aminex: From Acorn to Oak – Chapter 9: Seismic & Scale-Up

The data that turned a discovery into a giant


With the farm-out complete and funding secured, the stage was set for the next big step: a fresh look beneath the surface. Until then, Aminex and its partners had relied mostly on 2D seismic data and the encouraging results of Ntorya-1 and Ntorya-2. It was enough to prove hydrocarbons, but not enough to map the full extent of the resource.

That changed when 3D seismic was acquired across the Ruvuma acreage. For the first time, the subsurface could be seen in high resolution. The results were striking. Structures that had been hinted at on 2D were revealed in detail. Reservoir connectivity was better understood. New drilling targets came into focus.

Most importantly, the numbers jumped. Independent assessments, incorporating the new seismic data, lifted the estimated gas in place from the hundreds of billions of cubic feet into multiple trillions. Ntorya was no longer just a promising field — it was Tanzania’s largest onshore gas development in the making.

For Aminex, still holding its 25% interest on a free carry, the upgrade was a game-changer. The farm-out had already ensured the company would not be bankrupted by development costs. Now the seismic confirmed that the upside was far greater than originally imagined. A quarter share of a small discovery is one thing; a quarter share of a multi-TCF basin is quite another.

The new seismic also laid the technical groundwork for the Chikumbi-1 (CH-1) well. Designed to test deeper zones and provide further calibration of the seismic data, CH-1 would help convert gas in place into booked reserves — the critical step for financing and long-term planning.



For shareholders, the 3D seismic was the moment the story shifted gears again. Ntorya wasn’t just commercial — it was strategic, both for Tanzania’s energy security and for Aminex’s future.

➡️ Next time: Chapter Ten — To Be Continued. With the CPF under construction, pipeline contracts in place, and CH-1 on the horizon, the next RNS will carry the story into first gas and the long-awaited cashflow era.

Monday, 22 September 2025

Aminex: From Acorn to Oak – Chapter 5: First Gas

 When molecules finally flowed to market


After years of drilling, licensing, and negotiating, the wait was over. In April 2016, Aminex announced that gas from the Kiliwani North-1 (KN-1) well had finally started flowing into Tanzania’s national grid.

It was a milestone not just for the company, but for the country. KN-1 marked the first time Aminex had moved beyond being a pure explorer and into the ranks of producing companies. Tanzania, meanwhile, gained a new domestic supply source to feed growing demand for power and industry.

The plan was a gradual ramp-up. Initial flows began at modest levels, with volumes increasing step by step over a 90–100 day commissioning phase until the system stabilised at around 25–30 million cubic feet per day. During that period, TPDC was invoiced monthly for gas produced, with payments made in advance under the security arrangements of the GSA.

For investors who had followed the company since the early Nyuni days, this was vindication. After more than a decade of waiting, Aminex could finally show a revenue line on its accounts — in hard US dollars.

It was also proof of concept. Gas from Kiliwani North flowed directly into the new Songo Songo processing plant and then into the pipeline system feeding Dar es Salaam. The whole chain — wellhead to processing to pipeline to end user — was now working. That mattered for the much larger discoveries in the Ruvuma basin, which would one day follow the same route.



For Aminex, first gas was the reward for persistence. For shareholders, it was proof that the long story of licences, partners, and patient waiting had a tangible outcome. But as so often in oil and gas, the story didn’t end there. Within a year, new challenges emerged.

➡️ Next time: Chapter Six — Challenges and Decline. We’ll follow the pressure problems that reduced KN-1’s flow, forcing Aminex to rethink its strategy and refocus on the bigger prize in the Ruvuma basin.

Monday, 15 September 2025

Aminex Turns the Corner: Tanzania's Largest Onshore Gas Field Enters Construction Phase

Government Support, Strategic Partnerships & Imminent First Gas Position Aminex as a Long-Term Growth Play




🚧 Boots on the Ground: Construction Has Begun

Aminex has officially entered the construction phase of the Ntorya Project—Tanzania’s largest onshore gas development. It’s a major step forward for the company and a defining milestone for Tanzania’s energy future.

“This project is of national importance,” says Executive Chairman Charles Santos.
“It’s a path to sustainable growth for Aminex and long-term economic benefits for Tanzania.”


Strategic Position in Tanzania’s Energy Landscape

Aminex is one of the few listed companies with deep roots in Tanzania’s energy sector. The company entered the country in 2002 and was behind the first gas-to-power delivery from Songo Songo Island in 2016. Now, with the Ntorya gas field, Aminex is again at the center of a high-impact development.

“There’s only one other listed company with our Tanzanian focus,” Santos notes.
“That offers a unique opportunity for investors seeking direct exposure.”


🤝 ARA Partnership: A Game-Changer

Following financial restructuring and strategic repositioning, Aminex completed a farm-out in 2020 to ARA Petroleum Tanzania, which now holds 75% and operates the Ntorya field. Aminex retains a 25% interest but is fully carried through $140 million of project costs, significantly de-risking its position.

“The project has been sufficiently de-risked,” says Santos.
“We’ve got a 25-year development license, and government funding is in place for the pipeline. We’re approaching revenue.”


💡 Project Momentum: What’s Already Done?

  • EPC contract awarded to two Chinese engineering firms (CPP & CPTDC)

  • Pipeline mobilisation starting September 2025, construction kicks off January 2026

  • First gas expected July 2026, Aminex revenue begins ~1 month after

  • NT-2 well already ready for hook-up, with NT-1 and CH-1 to follow

  • Initial production of 60 mmcf/day, ramping up to 140 and then 280 mmcf/day in phases

  • Government has approved funding and support, signalling long-term commitment


📈 Scale and Geology: East Africa’s Largest Onshore Gas Find

The field spans over 300 km² and is estimated to contain 3.45 trillion cubic feet of gas in place.

“We expect to recover 75% of that over 35 years,” says Technical Director Tom Mackay.
“That aligns with our license and gives us an incredibly strong, long-term cash flow profile.”


Why Ntorya Matters to Tanzania Now

Tanzania faces a chronic electricity shortfall. While offshore projects are years away, Ntorya offers immediate, onshore, cost-efficient gas—perfect for power generation and industrial growth.

“Tanzania needs gas now—not in five or ten years,” says Santos.
“Ruvuma fills that urgent niche.”

The government’s commitment is evident:

  • 🏗️ Fully funding pipeline infrastructure

  • 📜 Committed through TPDC’s back-in rights

  • 🔁 Working to accelerate drilling approvals and regulatory support


💬 Aminex Outlook: From Survival to Sustainability

In 2020, Aminex was on the edge—struggling with declining production, paused deals, and COVID-related delays. But fast forward to today, and it’s a different story:

“We’ve survived the hard part,” says Santos.
“Now we’re on the road to stable cash flow and long-term growth. Aminex is back.”

With over $200 million already invested in Tanzania, Aminex is poised to start generating revenues within a year. Once cash flow starts, the company plans to:

  • Revisit its Kiliwani asset (potential 3D seismic and reactivation)

  • Renegotiate and reshape the Nyuni Area licence

  • Continue expanding Ruvuma’s output and infrastructure


🧠 Investor Takeaway:

  • ✅ Construction is now underway

  • ✅ Revenue expected Q3 2026

  • ✅ Long-term licence with major gas reserves

  • ✅ De-risked by carry structure

  • ✅ Supported by government infrastructure and policy


🚀 Final Word from the Chairman

“We’re very optimistic. This is no longer a ‘potential’ story—it’s execution now. Our future is production, revenue, and long-term impact.”

Friday, 5 September 2025

Aminex Gears Up for 2026 Gas Production with Pipeline, CPF & Drilling Momentum

Key infrastructure moves from planning to action as Ntorya gas strategy accelerates

Aminex PLC is entering a transformational phase in Tanzania’s Ruvuma Basin as construction and drilling preparations advance toward first gas in 2026. With the full backing of the Tanzanian government and TPDC, the Ntorya development is finally gathering visible momentum—offering long-term value upside for shareholders.

🚧 Pipeline & CPF: A 30 km Link to Market

The 30-kilometre gas pipeline connecting Ntorya to the Madimba Gas Plant has been awarded to industry heavyweight China Petroleum Pipeline Engineering (CPPE), with equipment from CPTDC.

  • Mobilisation begins: September 2025

  • Pipelaying window: January to July 2026

  • Project completion: By July 2026

The Central Processing Facility (CPF) will be built at Ntorya, ensuring direct feed into Tanzania’s national gas infrastructure.

For context: a 30 km pipeline is modest in scale for CPPE, which routinely handles 500+ km builds globally. This adds further confidence in timeline discipline.

🛠️ Drilling Plans: Rig Options & Timeline

Following PURA’s approval of the rig tender strategy in August 2025, the operator ARA Petroleum has already issued Expressions of Interest (EOIs)—ahead of schedule.

Candidate rigs include:

  • Exalo Rig 202 – active in Zimbabwe; likely available late 2025 after Invictus campaign

  • PR Marriott rigs – currently in Kenya

  • Nabors rigs – in Uganda

  • ARA’s own Oman-based fleet – with three active rigs that could redeploy within 3+ months

🎯 Drill Timing:

  • Optimistic spud: December 2025

  • More likely: January–February 2026

🌍 Government Support + Investor Upside

With a 25-year Development Licence in hand and the full cooperation of Tanzanian authorities, Aminex stands to benefit from:

  • Favourable PSA terms

  • 50% annual cost recovery from production revenues

  • Strong local partnerships through TPDC and regional contractors

📊 Resource Potential: Strong Base, Big Upside

  • Certified 2C net reserves: ~0.4 Tcf

  • Full basin potential: Estimated 16+ Tcf, with up to 4 Tcf net to Aminex

  • Condensate uplift: Up to +15% revenue enhancement

  • Oil shows at Ntorya-2 add further exploratory upside

🎨 What’s Next on the Blog

Expect regular updates with simplified graphics, clean infographics, and clear investor messaging. We'll track:

  • Pipeline milestones

  • CPF progress

  • Drilling mobilisation

  • Project economics and PSA mechanics


🔎 Bottom Line

The pieces are falling into place. Aminex is closer than ever to unlocking substantial long-term value at Ntorya—and 2026 is shaping up to be the inflection point.

Stay tuned for more updates as we track every move toward first gas.

Thursday, 4 September 2025

Aminex: Rig Strategy and Options for the Ntorya Drilling Campaign

From regional workhorses to ARA’s own fleet, what rigs could deliver the next phase at Ntorya — and when might they spud?


1. Why the Rig Choice Matters

With pipeline construction equipment due to mobilise this month and the Ntorya gas field poised for its next stage of development, investors are rightly asking: when will the next well be drilled, and which rig will do the job?

The answer lies in the rig tender now under way. PURA has approved the strategy, ARA has invited expressions of interest, and a range of options are now on the table.


2. Regional Candidates

Several rigs already in East and Southern Africa meet the technical requirements for CH-1 and the NT-1 workover (~1,000–1,500 HP, ~3–4 km depth capability):

  • Exalo Rig 202 – currently warm-stacked with Invictus Energy in Zimbabwe. Its two-year extension (signed Dec 2023) suggests availability by late 2025, aligning neatly with Ntorya’s timeline.

  • PR Marriott rigs (Kenya) – long track record with Tullow and active in East Africa. A credible bidder with mobilisation experience across the region.

  • Nabors rigs (Uganda) – working with Total and CNOOC on Tilenga/Kingfisher, these are world-class units that may rotate out as Ugandan projects mature.

  • Chinese rigs – subsidiaries of Sinopec and CNPC often respond to tenders in the region; they can field suitable units if scheduled availability matches

It’s also possible that a Chinese drilling rig could ultimately be selected. With CPPE and CPTDC already trusted to deliver the pipeline, and China’s wider history of energy infrastructure in Tanzania, investors may wonder if this confidence extends to drilling services too. While the pipeline award does not automatically link to a drilling contract — these are separate scopes of work — the idea of a CNPC or Sinopec drilling unit entering the tender is credible. If it happened, it would underline Tanzania’s comfort with Chinese delivery capacity, while still leaving room for strong competition from Exalo, PR Marriott, Nabors, and others.

3. The ARA Oman Option

ARA Petroleum also operates a fleet of rigs in Oman. In May 2025 they were running three concurrent rigs in Block 44. If Omani operations wind down, ARA could redeploy one of their rigs to Tanzania.

  • Pros: Full operator control, proven rigs, known crews.

  • Cons: Requires demobilisation, shipping to Mtwara, and land transport inland — at least 3+ months lead time.

While speculative, this option demonstrates ARA’s flexibility if regional rigs cannot be secured in time.


4. Timing — December or Early 2026?

  • December 2025: Possible if a regional rig (e.g., Exalo or Marriott) is freed quickly and mobilisation is fast-tracked.

  • January–February 2026: More realistic if tendering, contracting, and mobilisation take their usual course.

  • Alignment with pipeline: Either way, spudding before or during the early pipeline construction phase ensures CH-1 and NT-1 can contribute volumes once first gas flows in mid-2026.


5. Why Investors Should Be Confident

  • Multiple credible rig pools exist within East and Southern Africa.

  • ARA has its own fleet as a fall-back option, underscoring their commitment.

  • Timelines align with pipeline completion in July 2026 — ensuring gas can move to market.


📌 Closing Line:
“The next well at Ntorya is not a question of if, but when. With regional rigs available, ARA’s Omani fleet as a fall-back, and Tanzania’s regulators moving the process forward, the spud window is now clearly in sight — whether as early as December 2025 or into early 2026.”

Tuesday, 2 September 2025

Aminex: The Ruvuma Basin Potential That Could Transform Ntorya

Beyond current reserves — how 16+ Tcf of gas, condensate uplift, and possible oil could multiply Aminex’s value many times over.


1. From Current to Future

So far, our valuation discussions have been based only on 0.4 Tcf net to Aminex, which is the currently recoverable gas booked at Ntorya. That alone already suggests strong upside to today’s share price.

But the real long-term prize is the Ruvuma Basin itself, where independent assessments point to 16+ Tcf unrisked potential.

If the mapped ~16+ Tcf unrisked potential were progressively proved up during Full Field Development, Aminex’s 25% stake could reach up to 4 Tcf net — ten times larger than today’s discovered share! Even partial success (say 25–50% of that potential) would still lift Aminex’s net exposure to roughly 1–2 Tcf, materially above today’s booked ~0.2–0.4 Tcf.


2. The Numbers — Scaling Up

Let’s use the same pricing assumptions as before:

  • Base Case: $4.00/Mcf (domestic tariff)

  • High Case: $6.10/Mcf (industrial tariff)

For 4 Tcf net to Aminex:

  • Base Case → ~$16 billion gross sales

  • High Case → ~$24.4 billion gross sales

Even after PSA splits (conservatively assuming 55–60% government take, though Aminex has agreed favourable terms), that still implies:

  • $6.8–10.4 billion net to contractors

  • $1.7–2.6 billion net to Aminex

Divide by 4.22 billion shares:

  • Base Case ~31p/share

  • High Case ~47p/share

That’s an order of magnitude higher than today’s 1.95p.


3. Condensate Uplift & Oil Potential

The basin story is not only about gas:

  • Condensate uplift: Ntorya gas is expected to carry ~15% additional liquids value, providing a premium revenue stream on top of gas sales.

  • Oil upside: Drilling at NT-2 encountered oil shows in the mud, suggesting a deeper Jurassic oil play exists. If confirmed in later phases, this could open a whole new layer of value.


4. Why Investors Care

Cove Energy’s billion-pound sale in 2012 showed that when majors see multi-Tcf scale, they pay heavily for it. Ntorya is onshore, with lower costs and direct access to Tanzania’s growing market — factors that make it even more attractive strategically.

Long-term holders believe much of the 16+ Tcf potential will be proved up, turning Ntorya from a domestic gas play into a basin-scale energy hub with regional importance.


5. The Investor Takeaway

  • Current reserves justify near-term upside.

  • Basin potential could multiply Aminex’s value 10× or more.

  • Condensate uplift (+15%) and possible oil add further optionality.

  • Tanzania’s strong government backing and infrastructure funding reduce project risk.


📌 Closing Line:
“The discovered reserves at Ntorya are already valuable — but the 16+ Tcf potential of the Ruvuma Basin is what could truly transform Aminex. With condensate and oil as additional prizes, the long-term upside is not just incremental, but potentially transformational.”

Monday, 1 September 2025

Aminex: What Ntorya’s Gas Could Mean for the Share Price

From current reserves to full-field potential, a closer look at revenues, PSA terms, and cost recovery.


1. Headline Upside — The Big Picture

Aminex’s share of currently recoverable Ntorya gas is estimated at ~0.4 Tcf.

Using a base case domestic tariff of $4.00/Mcf and a higher industrial price of $6.10/Mcf, the gross lifetime sales values come to:

  • Base Case $4.00$1.6 billion

  • High Case $6.10$2.44 billion

With 4.22 billion shares in issue, that equates to headline values of:

  • 28.8p per share (base)

  • 43.9p per share (high)

👉 These are gross, pre-PSA figures, but they show why investors get excited: even the currently booked reserves generate multi-billion-dollar numbers.

And this is before considering condensate uplift, oil upside, or basin-wide volumes.


2. PSA-Adjusted Reality — Still Attractive

Tanzanian PSAs normally allocate around 55–60% of profit gas to government/TPDC. However, Aminex has publicly highlighted that favourable conditions have been agreed in the amended PSA (commercially sensitive and not disclosed in detail).

That means the actual government take could be less onerous than the typical model — but even on conservative assumptions:

  • Base Case ~3.0p/share

  • High Case ~4.7p/share

versus the current 1.95p share price.

That’s 50–140% upside — based only on what is currently recoverable.


3. How Cost Recovery Works (Capex & Opex)

A common misconception is that capex and opex simply reduce Aminex’s share. Under Tanzania’s PSA, that isn’t true.

  • Operators can recover up to 50% of gross annual revenues as “Cost Gas”.

  • This applies to both capex and opex until all are fully repaid.

  • Unrecovered balances roll forward each year until cleared.

Example:

Suppose capex is $250m, and annual revenues are $200m.

  • Year 1: $100m recovered (50% of $200m)

  • Year 2: another $100m recovered

  • Year 3: $50m recovered → capex fully paid off

From then on, more of the revenue flows directly as profit gas.

Opex is treated the same way — recoverable under the 50% annual ceiling — which means operating costs are also reimbursed before the profit split.

👉 This is why cost recovery actually improves early cash flows to contractors and ensures long-term netbacks are higher than raw PSA splits suggest.


4. The True Prize — Full Field Development

Everything so far is based only on ~0.4 Tcf net recoverable to Aminex. But the Ruvuma Basin has an estimated 16+ Tcf unrisked potential.

If proved up during full-field development (FFD):

  • Aminex’s 25% stake = ~4 Tcf net

  • That’s 10× larger than today’s discovered gas

  • On the same multiples, the per-share potential could be 30p–47p turning into 300p–470p

And there’s more:

  • Condensate uplift is expected to add ~15% additional value to gas sales.

  • Oil shows at NT-2 strongly hint at a deeper Jurassic oil play, which could be targeted in later phases of development.

Long-term holders therefore anticipate not just steady gas monetisation, but a basin-scale growth story with multiple revenue streams.


5. Investor Takeaway

  • Current Recoverables: Already justify upside against today’s 1.95p share price.

  • PSA Economics + Cost Recovery: Show Aminex can recoup capex/opex and still achieve strong netbacks.

  • Full Field Potential: 16+ Tcf basin, condensate uplift, and possible oil add layers of transformational upside.


📌 Closing Line for Investors:
“Even using conservative PSA terms, Aminex’s share of Ntorya already implies material upside. With cost recovery mechanisms improving early cash flow, condensate and oil adding extra value, and the 16+ Tcf basin potential still to be proved, the long-term case for Aminex remains one of scale and strategic importance.”

Check in tomorrow when we do the sums based on the full potential of 16+ Tcf

Thursday, 28 August 2025

Aminex Update: Pipeline Procurement Underway and Rig Tender Process Accelerates

Following yesterday’s RNS, new disclosures confirm Expressions of Interest for rig services have already been issued — ahead of schedule.


Yesterday’s RNS: Two Key Milestones

On 27th August, Aminex released an RNS confirming significant operational progress at Ntorya:

  • Pipeline:

    • Contractors have begun procurement of pipe and equipment for the 35 km Ntorya–Madimba pipeline.

    • Mobilisation of construction equipment is scheduled for September 2025.

    • Groundwork and pipelaying are due to start in January 2026, with completion by July 2026.

  • Rig Tender:

    • The Petroleum Upstream Regulatory Authority (PURA) has approved the tender strategy for a drilling rig.

    • This approval enables drilling of Chikumbi-1 (CH-1) and a workover of Ntorya-1 (NT-1).

    • The RNS stated that Expressions of Interest (EOIs) from service contractors would be requested next week.

  • Condensate Discussions:

    • TPDC, APT, and Aminex also discussed the processing and storage of condensate, highlighting an additional revenue stream beyond gas sales.


Today’s Update: Ahead of Schedule

Less than 24 hours later, it has been confirmed via today’s release on X (formerly Twitter) that the Expressions of Interest have already been issued, a full week earlier than suggested in the RNS.

This over-performance signals:

  • Strong operator momentum from APT.

  • A clear alignment with Tanzanian regulators and stakeholders.

  • A demonstration that the project is moving faster than timelines originally set out.


Why This Matters for Investors

The combination of pipeline procurement, firm groundwork dates, and now the early launch of the rig tender process creates visible momentum on all fronts:

  • De-risked schedule: Procurement and mobilisation show the pipeline is firmly on track.

  • Accelerated rig contracting: The early release of EOIs means CH-1 and NT-1 are moving closer to execution.

  • Additional upside: Condensate monetisation discussions could provide another layer of value.

This update underscores the Government of Tanzania’s and APT’s commitment to delivering Ntorya gas to the Madimba plant on time — and potentially even ahead of schedule.


Closing Thought

Investors have long waited to see Ntorya move from planning into visible execution. With procurement underway, mobilisation imminent, and the rig tender already advancing faster than expected, that moment has arrived.

The project is not just progressing — it is gathering pace.


Beyond Ntorya: Unlocking the 16 Tcf Potential of the Ruvuma Basin

Why future drilling, deeper horizons, and even potential oil could transform Ntorya from a domestic gas play into a basin-scale energy hub.



From Discovered to Potential

In our previous article we compared Aminex’s current discovered share of Ntorya gas with Cove Energy’s position in Mozambique back in 2012. That comparison was based on today’s proven gas only — roughly 0.4 Tcf net to Aminex.

But Ntorya sits within the wider Ruvuma Basin, a structure that independent assessments and operator mapping suggest could hold 16 Tcf or more of unrisked gas potential.

This is where the real long-term opportunity lies.


Why Basin Potential Matters

Majors don’t just buy into what has already been booked. The Cove Energy bidding war showed that upside scale is what excites strategic buyers.

  • Cove’s 8.5% stake equated to ~5–6 Tcf net when sold.

  • If future drilling proves out Ruvuma’s 16+ Tcf potential, Aminex’s 25% stake could represent ~4 Tcf net.

  • That’s on par with Cove’s net interest — but onshore, with lower development costs and direct access to a growing domestic market.


The Jurassic Oil Angle

Ntorya’s story isn’t just about gas. During NT-2 drilling, oil traces were identified in the mud — evidence that deeper horizons could contain liquid hydrocarbons.

Originally, the Chikumbi-1 (CH-1) well was planned to target multiple stacked levels, including the deeper Jurassic formation. The revised location focuses only on gas, reflecting Tanzania’s immediate priority for domestic supply.

But in time, under Full Field Development (FFD), it is reasonable to expect that the Jurassic oil play will be revisited. If proven, this would add an entirely new dimension to Ntorya’s value.


Tanzania’s Strategic Positioning

Tanzania continues to strengthen its role as an emerging energy hub. Recent announcements of cooperation agreements with Russian firms on oil and gas data-sharing highlight how the country is seeking to attract wider international partnerships.

While this has no direct bearing on Ntorya’s near-term gas project, it underlines that global players are watching the basin — a positive backdrop for future growth and potential transactions.


The Bigger Picture for Investors

For Aminex shareholders, the significance is clear:

  • Current discovered gas underpins near-term production and cash flow.

  • Basin potential (16+ Tcf) could ultimately give Aminex’s 25% stake net exposure similar to what Cove Energy enjoyed at the time of its billion-pound sale.

  • Oil upside offers an additional prize that is not priced into today’s valuations.

  • Government and TPDC backing reduce financial risk on key infrastructure, keeping capital efficiency high.


Closing Thought

Ntorya today is about gas, CPF construction, and pipeline delivery. But Ntorya tomorrow could be about much more: multi-Tcf basin growth and the possibility of oil.

That dual track of secure near-term gas revenue and longer-term basin-scale upside is what makes the Ruvuma story compelling.

Just as Cove Energy’s 2012 sale proved, when majors see that scale — they act.

Wednesday, 27 August 2025

Aminex RNS: Ntorya Operations Update Confirms Pipeline and Rig Milestones

Procurement for the Ntorya–Madimba pipeline begins, groundwork scheduled for January, while PURA approves the rig tender strategy.


Key Highlights from Today’s RNS

  • Pipeline Progress:

    • Contractors have begun procurement of pipe and equipment for the 35 km pipeline linking Ntorya to the Madimba gas processing plant.

    • Mobilisation of construction equipment will begin in September 2025.

    • Groundwork and pipelaying are scheduled to commence in January 2026, with completion targeted by July 2026.

  • Condensate Value Addition:

    • Discussions are under way regarding the processing and storage of condensate volumes from Ntorya — an additional revenue stream beyond gas sales.

  • Rig Tender Milestone:

    • The Petroleum Upstream Regulatory Authority (PURA) has approved the tender strategy for contracting a drilling rig.

    • The rig will be used to drill Chikumbi-1 (CH-1) and perform a workover on Ntorya-1 (NT-1).

    • Operator APT will request expressions of interest from service contractors next week.


Why This Matters for Investors

This RNS confirms that multiple strands of Ntorya’s development are advancing in parallel:

  • Pipeline: With procurement already under way and a firm mobilisation schedule, the long-discussed link to Madimba has moved from planning to delivery. A clear timeline to completion by July 2026 provides investors with visibility.

  • Rig Tender: PURA’s approval is a regulatory green light that allows the operator to advance into contractor engagement. The drilling of CH-1 and the NT-1 workover will expand production capacity beyond NT-2, underpinning volumes for the GSA.

  • Condensate: Monetisation of condensate offers upside beyond gas sales, increasing the value of the project.

Together, these steps strengthen confidence that Ntorya is firmly on its way to first gas, with strong backing from TPDC, PURA, and APT.


Aminex Management Comment

Charles Santos, Executive Chairman, highlighted:

“Our discussions with the TPDC and the operator have been extremely fruitful, and we are delighted that activity on the Pipeline is proceeding as planned… PURA has approved the tender strategy, allowing APT to begin the tender process. These developments demonstrate again the Government of Tanzania’s strong commitment to this project.”


Investor Takeaway

This update provides:

  • Visible progress on the pipeline, with equipment procurement already started.

  • Firm dates for mobilisation (Sept 2025), groundwork (Jan 2026), and completion (July 2026).

  • Regulatory approval clearing the way for the rig tender and the next phase of drilling.

  • Condensate upside adding to the project’s revenue profile.

For shareholders, this RNS delivers the clearest evidence yet that Ntorya’s development is advancing on multiple fronts, backed by Tanzania’s institutions and operator commitment.

Tuesday, 26 August 2025

Aminex Ara Breaking Ground: Ntorya Moves Closer to First Gas

Visible steps are aligning as infrastructure, wells, and regulatory milestones converge toward production.


A Project Now in Motion

The Ntorya development in southern Tanzania is advancing step by step toward its goal of delivering gas into the national grid via the Madimba pipeline. With approvals secured, funding confirmed, and procurement of facilities under way, the project is steadily progressing along its critical path.

Investors are understandably keen to see “hard evidence” — rigs mobilising, welders on the pipeline, or CPF construction above ground. Those milestones are coming, but there is already much happening that gives confidence in the journey ahead.


Upcoming Milestones: The Roadmap Ahead

1. EPC Contract Awarded

The Engineering, Procurement, and Construction (EPC) contract for the 35 km pipeline has been officially awarded to China Petroleum Pipeline and China Petroleum Technology & Development Corporation. This ensures the pipeline’s delivery is now in the hands of experienced international contractors.

2. Pipeline Fully Funded

The pipeline construction is being fully financed by TPDC, the national petroleum corporation. This reduces financial risk for the operators and demonstrates the Tanzanian government’s strong commitment to bringing Ntorya gas to market.

3. NT-2 Extended Well Test & CPF Integration

NT-2 has been identified as the first producing well. An extended well test will confirm reservoir behaviour and fine-tune the CPF’s design specifications. Importantly, this does not delay CPF construction — procurement and enabling works can proceed in parallel, with the test results helping optimise the final equipment setup.

4. PURA Approval for Rig Tender

The regulator, PURA, is reviewing rig tender plans. Approval of this plan is a milestone in itself, as it enables the operator to issue the formal rig tender.

5. Rig Award and Mobilisation

Once the tender is awarded, a drilling rig will be mobilised. Its first task: drill CH-1 (Chikumbi-1). The same rig will then conduct a workover of NT-1. This is a crucial step in adding redundancy and ensuring multiple wells can feed into the CPF and pipeline.

6. CPF Civil Works and Site Preparation

The approved US$41 million budget includes the CPF, flowlines, manifolds, and fiscal meters. While there has been no formal announcement of CPF mobilisation, satellite imagery in the wider Ntorya area shows ground activity that could indicate early site preparation. This should be regarded as an educated observation, not official confirmation.

Such early groundwork is entirely consistent with the development sequence — clearing land, preparing foundations, and creating storage areas typically begin before heavy equipment arrives, ensuring a smooth transition into construction.

7. First Pipeline Welds

The first welds on the pipeline right-of-way will provide unmistakable, visible proof of progress. This is one of the clearest signals investors can look for as the project enters the physical build stage.

8. First Gas Flow

All of these steps lead to the same target: the delivery of 40 MMscf per day under the Gas Sales Agreement in the first contract year, with capacity to grow further.


Investor Takeaway

MilestoneWhat It Demonstrates
EPC awardedContractors in place, work authorised
Pipeline funding by TPDCFull state backing, no financial burden on operator
NT-2 extended testOptimises CPF design, not a blocker
PURA approval for rig tenderRegulatory progress, green light to issue tender
Rig award & mobilisationVisible drilling and well activity
CPF enabling worksSite preparation under way, consistent with plan
First pipeline weldsPhysical build begins in earnest
First gasContracted supply of 40 MMscf/d delivered

Conclusion

Ntorya is progressing through a clear sequence of milestones. Some are less visible than others, but each is a step toward first gas. With the pipeline EPC awarded, funding secured, and wells prepared for development, the project is firmly moving forward.

The next stages — rig mobilisation, CPF civil works, and the first pipeline weld — will provide the visual proof that investors are waiting for. From there, Ntorya transitions rapidly from preparation to production, with 40 MMscf/d contracted under the GSA and a scalable pathway for growth.

Sunday, 24 August 2025

Aminex ARA From Field to Grid: Ntorya’s CPF and the Madimba Plant

 

How Tanzania’s two-stage gas system takes Ntorya’s production from the wellhead all the way to homes, power stations, and industry.


The Two Key Facilities

When Ntorya comes on stream, two plants will play essential but different roles in the journey of its gas. Understanding their functions helps investors see how the system is designed for both safety and scale.


1. The Ntorya CPF — Field-Level Processing

  • Location: At the Ntorya well cluster.

  • Role: First-stage treatment, making raw gas suitable for pipeline transport.

  • Functions:

    • Separation of gas, water, and condensates.

    • Removal of impurities (sand, liquids).

    • Dehydration to meet pipeline standards.

    • Compression to flow into the 30 km export line.

  • Capacity: Designed initially for ~40 MMscf/d, expandable toward 140–280 MMscf/d.

The CPF ensures Ntorya gas leaves the field safely and efficiently.


2. The Madimba Gas Processing Plant — National Hub

  • Location: Near Mtwara, on Tanzania’s southern coast.

  • Role: Central treatment and distribution point for southern Tanzania’s gas.

  • Functions:

    • Final treatment (removing CO₂, acid gases if present).

    • Metering and blending streams from different fields (Songo Songo, Mnazi Bay, Ntorya).

    • Dispatching gas into the national pipeline grid.

  • Capacity: ~210 MMscf/d, expandable.

Madimba ensures gas from multiple sources is blended, metered, and delivered into the grid — powering electricity generation, industries, and domestic users.


Why Both Are Needed

  • The CPF is field-specific — treating Ntorya gas at the source.

  • Madimba is system-wide — combining streams and delivering national supply.

  • Together, they provide a two-stage assurance: first, that Ntorya gas meets quality standards at source; second, that it is integrated seamlessly into Tanzania’s energy network.


Investor Perspective

  • The CPF is the critical path asset for Ntorya first gas.

  • Madimba is the assurance of market access — guaranteeing that once Ntorya flows, there is infrastructure ready to take it.

  • This dual system significantly reduces market risk: gas has both a path and a destination.

Saturday, 23 August 2025

Aminex Ara - Installing a Wellhead: How Ntorya’s CH-1 Will Be Brought Online

A closer look at the technology that connects the Aminex/Ara Ntorya wells to future production.

When people hear about drilling a new well, they often imagine the drilling rig but not what happens next. The wellhead is the crucial piece of equipment that sits at the surface and provides the link between the reservoir below and the flowlines leading to the CPF.

For Ntorya’s Chikumbi-1 (CH-1) well, it is understood that for Aminex / ARA the wellhead assembly has already been sourced and is ready for shipment, with long-lead tubulars stored at the NT-2 site. This preparation means that once the rig arrives, installation should follow a tried-and-tested sequence.


What is a wellhead?

A wellhead is the pressure-containing component at the top of a well. It:

  • Anchors the casing strings,

  • Provides the sealing system to contain pressure,

  • Creates the interface where a “Christmas tree” valve system is later installed,

  • Ensures the well can be safely connected to flowlines leading to processing facilities.


How is a wellhead installed?

The installation process involves:

  1. Running and cementing the casing strings.

  2. Placing the wellhead housing at surface level.

  3. Installing seals, connectors, and locking systems.

  4. Adding the mandrel and casing hanger to tie the casing into the wellhead.

  5. Finally, securing the blow-out preventer (BOP) above for continued drilling or workover operations.

This might sound technical, but in practice it’s a highly repeatable procedure, designed to be safe, efficient, and consistent across wells worldwide.


What equipment is used?

The type of wellhead ARA has sourced for Ntorya will likely be similar to the latest designs seen in industry animations:

  • Internal latch systems for secure connections,

  • Quick-connect features to reduce rig time,

  • Torque-through mandrels allowing safe, repeatable installation,

  • Scalable components so future wells can use the same proven system.


Why does this matter for investors?

  • The wellhead is a long-lead item — having it already prepared means a major risk is reduced.

  • Installing the wellhead correctly is the foundation for CH-1 production and the NT-1 workover that follows.

  • Visible progress at surface (wellhead installation) is one of the most reassuring milestones for any project.


Watch: How a Modern Wellhead is Installed


This 10-minute animated Video demonstrates how today’s wellhead systems are installed — the equipment at Ntorya will follow a very similar process, ensuring the project is using industry-standard, modern technology.


Closing thought

The wellhead may not grab headlines like a drilling rig or a 30 km pipeline, but it is every bit as important. For Ntorya, it is the starting point of safe production, a visible sign that long-prepared plans are moving forward.