From 80p to £1.35: Rising Gas Prices Supercharge Ntorya’s Valuation Potential

 

Orca’s 2024 realised prices reveal a higher-value demand mix, doubling Aminex’s projected upside in the 14-well scenario.

When we modelled Ntorya’s long-term value earlier this year, our 14-well, 420 MMscfd case used conservative gas prices of $3.50–$5.50/MMBtu. That produced impressive numbers — with some scenarios approaching 80p per share.

But the latest Orca Energy 2024 annual report changes the game. It shows:

• Gas-to-power: $3.88/MMBtu

• Gas-to-industry: $8.45/MMBtu

• Weighted average realised: $4.95/MMBtu

Many of Ntorya’s likely buyers — CNG stations, GTL, fertilizer, LNG trucking hubs — fall into the higher-priced industrial category. Using blended scenarios based on Orca’s real-world data lifts our projections dramatically:

• 50/50 industrial/power blend = $6.17/MMBtu

• 70% industrial blend = $7.08/MMBtu

• 80% industrial blend = $7.54/MMBtu

Applying these to our 14-well, 420 MMscfd case with a 40% effective cash entitlement to Aminex, the implied share price potential jumps from ~80p to as high as £1.35 at standard market earnings multiples.

This isn’t pie-in-the-sky speculation — it’s grounded in realised Tanzanian gas prices from a peer producer and in Ntorya’s planned production profile. With the Mtwara LNG project naming Ntorya as its primary supply source and multiple high-value industrial markets lining up, the revenue mix could lean heavily toward premium-priced sales.

For investors, the takeaway is simple: as the demand mix shifts towards industry and transport, Ntorya’s economics strengthen — and the gap between current market price and intrinsic value widens.

Updated Orca-Based Valuation:

Our original 14-well, 420 MMscfd projections used conservative gas price assumptions of $3.50–$5.50/MMBtu. However, Orca Energy’s 2024 report confirms a weighted average realised price of $4.95, with a $3.88/Mcf gas-to-power rate and an $8.45/Mcf gas-to-industry rate. Applying blended scenarios of $6.17 (50/50), $7.08 (70% industrial), and $7.54 (80% industrial) lifts projected share price outcomes significantly across all market multiples. At the upper end, the industrial-heavy blends more than double the implied valuation compared to our earlier chart, reinforcing the bullish case for Ntorya’s earnings potential as higher-value industrial demand ramps up.

Tanzania’s Energy Infrastructure Surge Sets the Stage for Explosive Gas Demand

EWURA’s 109-permit wave, CNG expansion, and major industrial projects point to a multi-year growth engine for Ntorya gas.

Tanzania’s downstream energy build-out is gathering serious momentum. The Energy and Water Utilities Regulatory Authority’s (EWURA) latest Batch 244 public notice lists 109 mid- and downstream petroleum permit applications, covering:

• Kibali cha Ujenzi wa Kituo cha Mafuta – construction permits for fuel stations

• Leseni ya Kituo cha Mafuta – licences to operate fuel stations

• Leseni ya Usambazaji wa Gesi ya Kupikia – explicit LPG distribution licences

• Other infrastructure-related activities

While the notice does not explicitly label these stations as CNG, the timing, policy direction, and presence of known energy brands such as Puma Energy suggest that many could be CNG-capable — aligning with the government’s goal for a majority-CNG vehicle fleet by 2050.

This is in addition to seven CNG stations already under construction, mobile CNG units being rolled out, Rashal Energies’ plan for 30 CNG stations, and Gazprom’s reported market entry. The transport fuel mix is evolving fast — and CNG infrastructure can be built in months, not years.

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Why This Matters for Gas Demand

Even at a conservative average of 2 MMscf/d per site, if a significant share of these 109 permitted stations are CNG-capable, they could add well over 150 MMscf/d of demand once operational. This is highly modular demand that can scale quickly, complementing larger, longer-lead projects.

CNG is only one part of the demand stack. Other confirmed and emerging gas consumers include:

• Aspin Energy / Escom Power Plant (Malawi) – 142 MW natural gas-fired plant using Tanzanian gas from March 2026 (~30 MMscf/d)

• Rocky Mountain GTL Plant – $420M gas-to-liquids facility producing diesel and jet fuel (~25–30 MMscf/d)

• ESSA Fertilizer Plant – Targeting 70 MMscf/d by 2027–2029, potentially supplementing Mnazi Bay supply

• Mtwara LNG Project – $4.5B state-backed export and regional distribution hub, starting at 400 MMscf/d and scaling to 1,200 MMscf/d, with Ntorya named as primary supplier

Taken together, these represent layered, long-term, and scalable demand — reducing offtake risk for upstream producers and creating multiple market channels.

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Aminex’s Strategic Position

For Aminex and its carried 25% interest in the Ntorya field, the convergence of infrastructure rollout and industrial demand is transformational:

• Fully carried to ~$40M net, removing capital burden in development

• Favourable PSA terms compared to industry norms, increasing effective revenue share

• Pipeline to Madimba under construction, de-risking first gas timelines

• Direct link to high-value offtake via Mtwara LNG and industrial markets

With scalable production — and the ability to grow beyond 280 MMscf/d — Aminex sits at the heart of Tanzania’s domestic energy transition and export growth ambitions.

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Investor View: More Than Just “Potential”

The EWURA permit wave is not an aspirational policy statement — it is a regulatory step that clears the way for real companies spending real capital on fuel and gas infrastructure. Add in signed EPC contracts, pipeline works, and the state-backed LNG plan naming Ntorya as a primary supplier, and you have tangible progress.

Near-term catalysts include:

• Physical confirmation of pipeline ground-breaking

• PURA approval to accelerate the Chikumbi-1 rig tender

• Additional industrial offtake agreements

With the current share price still below 2p, these could drive sharp re-ratings.

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Bottom line:
Tanzania’s downstream build-out, rising industrial gas prices, and LNG export positioning create a market capable of absorbing — and paying premium rates for — every molecule Ntorya can produce. For Aminex, the building blocks for a multi-year growth story are already falling into place.

💥 Why Aminex’s PSA Is Superior:

 

Lessons from PAET’s Disadvantageous Deal

One of the most overlooked factors in the energy investment space is the profit-sharing structure within Production Sharing Agreements (PSAs). A compelling comparison can be made between Aminex and Orca’s subsidiary Pan African Energy Tanzania (PAET)—and it shows just how advantaged Aminex really is.

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⚠️ PAET’s PSA: Complex, Outdated, and Unfavourable

The PSA signed in 2001 between the Tanzanian government and PAET is widely regarded as one of the most complex and least favourable ever agreed. It is not remotely comparable to the modern, commercially fair terms under which Aminex operates.

Here’s why:

❗Protected Gas: ~30% Given Away for Free

Under PAET’s PSA:

• PAET is required to supply up to 45.1 MMcf/d of “Protected Gas” to TPDC.

• This gas is given away at no revenue gain to PAET—TPDC provides it on a “no gain, no loss” basis.

• Result: Around 30% of PAET’s total production has generated no income in recent years.

⚙️ Step 2: Costs Are Recovered from Remaining Revenues

• PAET must recover all costs—even those related to Protected Gas and TPDC’s share—from the remainder of revenues.

• This shrinks profitability even further, especially in high-capex years.

💸 Step 3: Profit Sharing Still Favours TPDC

Even after costs:

• Profits are shared based on production tiers.

• At typical recent production rates (~85–95 MMcf/d), TPDC takes 45% of the remaining profit.

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📉 Despite These Challenges, PAET Made Money

To their credit, Orca/PAET has delivered shareholder value:

• 2021 Net Income: $16.37 million

• 2022 Net Income: $27.73 million

• 2023 Depletion Charge: $34.9 million (includes 3D seismic costs, not free-carried)

2024 was an unusual year due to operational disruptions (e.g., Songas shutdown), but in normal years, PAET still manages profitability—even under a flawed structure.

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🚀 Why Aminex Is Positioned for Stronger Returns

Now imagine all that without the burden. Aminex benefits from a simpler, more investor-friendly PSA, with multiple strategic advantages:

✅ Simple, Transparent Gas Pricing

• Aminex gas is sold at the wellhead.

• Different pricing tiers: power gas vs. industrial gas (with the latter commanding higher prices).

✅ No Free Gas Obligations

• No “Protected Gas” burden—100% of Aminex’s production will generate revenue.

✅ Strategic Financial Advantages

• No corporate debt dragging on profits.

• Free carry covers all development CAPEX (any unused portion gets paid to Aminex from ARA’s share).

• $115.7 million in tax losses can be used to offset future taxable income.

• $103.4 million intercompany loan (from Aminex to Ndovu) to be repaid tax-free, using future Tanzanian revenue.

NB the above is based on currently known PSA terms

From the pen of guest writer Ufufuo.

If I may say so, a nice piece that refutes a fair bit of nonsense that has been constantly spewed out on the boards when comparing Aminex to Orca and on occasion Wentworth.  To finish I wanted to clarify the accuracy and I asked an industry research model its opinion on the above. The results below...

✅ Confirmed Accurate

🟢 PAET PSA (2001) Complexity and Protected Gas

• Protected Gas obligations under PAET’s PSA are well-documented in Orca’s filings. PAET supplies up to 45.1 MMcf/d free of charge, reducing revenue-generating capacity.

• Cost recovery from remaining gas revenue is accurate, including TPDC’s costs.

• Profit gas split with TPDC up to 45% is consistent with Orca’s public disclosures.

🟢 Aminex PSA (Ntorya)

• The PSA for Ntorya is modern and post-2005, structured differently than PAET’s.

• Aminex is free-carried by ARA up to $140m, which covers seismic, drilling, and infrastructure.

• There are no protected gas obligations or government-imposed “no gain” provisions.

• Tax loss carryforwards of ~$115.7 million and intercompany loan to Ndovu of ~$103.4 million are disclosed in Aminex’s annual reports.

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⚠️ Partially Confirmed / Context Needed

⚠️ “100% of Aminex’s production will generate revenue”

• This is broadly accurate assuming current PSA terms persist, but future changes (e.g., TPDC back-in rights, new offtake agreements) could introduce deductions or allocations. Still, compared to PAET, the structure is materially more favourable.

⚠️ “Gas sold at wellhead” with two-tier pricing

• Aminex’s GSA terms are confidential, so while industrial pricing potential is real (and discussed at the AGM), we cannot confirm the pricing structure definitively. However, past statements have indicated potential for differentiated pricing (power vs. industrial).

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❌ No Material Errors Found

The post maintains a truthful, favorable comparison without exaggeration. It contextualizes Aminex’s financial positioning clearly and contrasts with the PAET PSA in a fair and fact-based manner.

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📝 Verdict

✅ Post is accurate and balanced.
🔍 Minor qualifications could be added (e.g., "based on currently known PSA terms") for extra precision.
💡 No misleading or exaggerated claims were detected.

#AEX 📈 Shard Capital Upgrades Aminex Price Target to 3.25–3.70p: A New Phase Begins

In a newly released note, Shard Capital has significantly upgraded its 12-month price target for Aminex PLC, citing the company’s transition from speculation to execution. With construction now underway on the $50 million Ntorya–Madimba pipeline, the path to production is clearer than ever.

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🧱 It’s No Longer “If”—It’s “When”

Shard opens their report with a bold shift in tone:

“It is no longer IF, but WHEN…”

That sentiment reflects the milestone announcement on July 7, when Tanzania’s TPDC confirmed investment in the pipeline, connecting Aminex’s Ntorya field to national gas infrastructure.

This development transforms Aminex’s narrative—turning a high-risk frontier explorer into a tangible energy growth story, linked to the rise of East Africa’s economy.

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🎯 New Valuation Target: 3.25p–3.70p

• Previous target: ~2.3p

• New 12-month target: 3.25p to 3.70p

  • Low-end: Assumes Ntorya production ramps to 280 MMscf/d by 2036

  • High-end: Assumes plateau is reached three years earlier, by 2033

This revaluation reflects faster expected development and improving investor confidence.

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🔍 Peak Valuation: 6p–7p Based on NPV

Shard goes even further with its long-term outlook:

“We currently estimate a peak NPV/share value in the range of 6p to 7p as the company reaches its peak production.”

This figure factors in full plateau production and future field development (Phase 2), making Aminex particularly attractive for long-term growth investors.

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⚙️ What Will Drive Short-Term Re-Rating?

Shard identifies two key catalysts that could drive further upside within the next 12 months:

1. Visible progress on the pipeline

2. Successful drilling of the Chikumbi‑1 (CH‑1) well

Both are scheduled to occur before mid‑2026, aligning with Aminex’s roadmap to first cash flow.

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📣 Final Takeaway for Investors

With pipeline construction confirmed and the CH‑1 drill now scheduled ahead of first gas, Aminex has entered its most investable phase to date. Shard Capital’s latest analysis reflects this turning point, offering institutional-grade endorsement of the company’s trajectory.

🔺 Target Range: 3.25p–3.70p

🚀 Peak Potential: 6p–7p/share

For investors aligned with East African energy growth, the case for Aminex has never been clearer.

 Here’s the latest weekly summary of Aminex PLC developments, incorporating official updates and Tanzanian press coverage:

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Aminex Ignites: Early Drilling, Accelerated Pipeline, and Momentum Into 2026

The tempo has changed—and this time, it’s real.

Following this week’s AGM and official field updates, Aminex has entered the execution phase of the Ntorya development. With shareholder confidence rising and new operational details confirmed, the value case is solidifying. For investors watching from the sidelines, the clock is ticking.

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🔧 Chikumbi‑1 to Be Drilled Before Pipeline Completion

In a significant pivot from prior expectations, the Aminex Board confirmed that Chikumbi‑1 (CH‑1) will be drilled before the Ntorya–Madimba pipeline is completed.

Why does this matter?

It means:

• CH‑1 results will be known well ahead of first gas

• The market will re-rate on resource confirmation, not just revenue

• Aminex can issue an updated CPR sooner, likely boosting reserves and valuation

This decision wasn’t speculative—it’s now the base case, supported by all project partners, including TPDC and PURA.

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🛠️ Pipeline Construction Timeline Compressed

While the official guidance says 12 months, industry talk suggests the pipeline could be completed in as little as 8 months. That would shift commissioning forward into Q1 or Q2 2026, compressing the timeline for Aminex to receive first cash flow from gas sales via NT‑2.

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💥 What’s Coming and Why It Matters

The execution roadmap is now clear and packed with near-term catalysts:

• Rig tender imminent (August 2025)

• CH‑1 spud likely in late 2025

• NT‑2 well test scheduled pre-pipeline

• New CPR and Phase 2 planning in 2026

• Condensate uplift + industrial pricing flexibility

Each of these events has the potential to drive share price momentum—independently.

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🧮 Production Expectations Skyrocket

The Board confirmed that CH‑1 is expected to flow at ~50 MMscf/d—more than double prior assumptions. That’s because the well will target thicker, stacked reservoirs, including untapped units.

This single well could anchor Phase 1 delivery and define Phase 2 scalability.

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💧 Condensate Could Add +15% to Field Value

Condensate volumes are now forecast to provide an additional 15% value uplift—a high-margin revenue stream not yet fully priced into market expectations.

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💸 Gas Pricing Includes Upside Leverage

Two revenue-enhancing features:

• Inflation indexing in the GSA

• Premium pricing from industrial offtakers

With Tanzania’s mining and manufacturing sectors expanding, Aminex and ARA are well positioned to capture higher-than-utility tariffs.

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🛡️ Strong JV Dynamics—ARA Wants Aminex In

Despite owning 75%, ARA isn’t pushing Aminex out. The Board made it clear: the public listing provides transparency, credibility, and valuation clarity that ARA finds valuable.

If a buyout were coming, it would’ve happened already.

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📊 Phase 2 = 280 MMscf/d

Aminex’s long-term role just expanded. With up to 16.4 tcf unrisked gas in place, TPDC and ARA have revealed plans for:

• 6 more wells

• A second pipeline

• Expanded processing capacity

The target is now 280 MMscf/d, not 140. Ntorya is being positioned as a national energy hub.

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🪙 Financial Runway and First Cash Flow

Aminex has sufficient funds to maintain operations until first cash flow expected by mid‑2026. With NT‑2 as the first producer and CH‑1 to follow, this positions Aminex for sustainable profitability.

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🔚 Final Word

This isn’t just another speculative frontier gas story.

• The rig is coming.

• The drill will happen before gas flows.

• The pipeline may finish early.

• And Aminex has clear upside leverage—both technically and commercially.

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📈 Projected Share Price Catalyst Chart

Each catalyst represents a standalone opportunity for revaluation. And as the timeline accelerates, the market’s response could become even more aggressive.

If you’re looking for asymmetric upside in frontier energy, Aminex just moved into the fast lane.

Aminex AGM Signals Acceleration:

Aminex AGM Signals Acceleration: CH‑1 Before Pipeline, Phase 2 Plans, and Market-Ready Momentum

For me, this year’s Aminex AGM marked a fundamental shift—not just in tone, but in tempo.

For the first time in years, the Board spoke with conviction and clarity. No ambiguity. No hedging. Just a clear message: Ntorya is entering execution mode, and the drill is coming before the pipeline is complete!

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🔩 “CH‑1 Will Be Drilled Before the Pipeline Is Completed”

No hesitation. No caveats. That is now the base case.

The Board confirmed that all parties—TPDC, ARA, Aminex, and the Tanzanian government—are aligned and urgently pushing to get CH‑1 drilled. PURA’s involvement has been specifically to accelerate rig tendering.

Rig tendering is imminent. While a shared rig with M&P is being discussed, other rigs are in the running—and the Board made it clear that M&P’s timeline would be too late (mid‑2026). In other words: the M&P option may just be negotiation leverage.

Bottom Line:

• TPDC is “pushing like crazy”

• CH‑1 is on the clock

• Phase shift confirmed. Execution starts now.

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📈 CH‑1 Targeting 50 MMscf/d Flow Rate

The Board corrected the assumption of 20 MMscf/d per well:

“CH‑1 is expected to flow at ~50 MMscf/d.”

This well targets a thicker section of the reservoir with stacked pays, including Unit 3—making it much higher impact than NT‑2, which flowed 17 MMscf/d under constrained conditions.

A new CPR (Competent Person’s Report) is expected after CH‑1 or Phase 1 drilling, with upgraded reserves, production profiles, and valuation.

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💧 Condensate Could Add +15% to Project Value

The Board confirmed condensate volumes could deliver ~15% additional value—clean margin revenue, possibly hundreds of millions over the field’s life.

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💸 Gas Pricing Has Built-In Upside

Two key revenue drivers:

1. Inflation clause built into the GSA

2. Higher prices for industrial offtake vs. utility rates

With industrial gas demand rising in Tanzania, Aminex could see surprise upside on realised pricing.

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🔗 ARA Wants Aminex to Stay

Why hasn’t Aminex been bought out or diluted? The Board explained:

• ARA is happy with 75% and sees value in Aminex’s public listing

• The listing provides transparency, valuation, and investor reach

• If ARA wanted Aminex gone, it would’ve happened already

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🚀 Phase 2 Strategy: 280 MMscf/d or Bust

The operator isn’t stopping at Phase 1:

• 6 more wells planned

• Second pipeline to Madimba

• Expanded processing facility

“140 MMscf/d won’t adequately drain the field. 280 MMscf/d brings reserves into production within the license life.”

This is operator-led strategy, not speculative dreaming. Ntorya is being built as a national energy asset.

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🏦 Funding Runway + Cash Flow Timing

• Aminex has used ~50% of its facility, with ~$1.5m available

• Burn rate: ~$1.5m/year, so fully funded for 12 months

• First cash flow expected ~September 2026, once the pipeline is commissioned

Payments will be a mix of USD and Tanzanian Shillings.

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🧾 TPDC to Take 60 MMscf/d Initially

TPDC has committed to 60 MMscf/d of initial offtake, with the rest going to industrial customers. Virtual pipeline, LNG, CNG, mining, manufacturing are all in ARA’s strategy.

Demand is not a concern. Discussions are already underway.

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🧪 NT‑2 Test Still Going Ahead

Despite the focus on CH‑1, the NT‑2 well test is still scheduled before pipeline commissioning. It will confirm deliverability and gas composition (expected 3% CO₂ content—low and manageable).

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📌 TPDC Back-in Rights Still at 15%

The 15% back-in right has not been exercised yet, and that remains the limit under the PSA. Any change would be procedural and expected.

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🔍 Kiliwani, Nyuni, and Exploration Strategy

• Kiliwani is on hold, but still has potential. Seismic planned.

• Nyuni is “too risky” for now. Scale-down and partnership are in progress.

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📣 PR Reset and New Valuation Coming

The Board acknowledged past silence and promised a PR reset:

• Regular updates to resume

• Journalists engaged

• New Shard Capital valuation incoming—expected to be more bullish

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🧠 Final Word: It’s Not “If” Anymore

This AGM didn’t just confirm:

• CH‑1 before pipeline completion

• 50 MMscf/d flow potential

• Phase 2 expansion strategy

It changed the tone of the entire project.

We’re not asking if Ntorya will deliver.
We’re asking how fast, how big, and how long we stay invested.

The above report comes thanks to the attendance at the AGM by Prospero 

Aminex Model Update 25th July 2025

 

📌 Recent AGM & Operational Update

According to the 2025 AGM feedback and RNS issued on 17 July 2025:

• Chikumbi‑1 drilling has been moved forward and is now scheduled before pipeline completion, meaning drilling activity may precede first gas pipelines.

• Pipeline construction is set to begin by end of July 2025, with commissioning expected by July 2026

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🧾 Does This Change the Revenue-Sharing Model?

Not materially. The PSA and GSA remain confidential, but public disclosures confirm they follow the favourable 2022 gas fiscal addendum:

These terms remain in force regardless of drilling sequence

Consultations with ARA/TPDC indicate the PSA’s exceptional commercial terms heavily benefit JV partners, especially as Aminex is carried through development.

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✅ Implications for Value and Share Price

Operational Acceleration:

• Drilling CH‑1 early could fast-track resource confirmation, potentially moving SP catalysts forward by months.

• Rig tender launch by mid-August 2025 now likely to precede major pipeline coverage—earlier drilling → earlier data → earlier valuation triggers.

Revenue Model Intact:

• Offtake structure, cost recovery profile, and contractor split remain exactly as modeled.

• No change in Aminex’s fiscal share or exposure—only impact is timing of cash flows.

Share Price Impact:

• Expect possible 20–50% stock moves on positive CH‑1 updates or rig contract awards.

• Timeline for first gas remains mid‑2026; commercial ramp-up projections still valid.

• Earlier drilling may shift upward price momentum ahead of pipeline completion.

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🧪 Recalibrated Forecast Table

Milestone	Approx. Timing	Potential SP Upside (%)	Commentary
CH‑1 Drill Contract Award	Mid‑Aug 2025	+20–30%	Accelerates early-chapter SP drivers
CH‑1 Spud / Rig Mobilisation	Late 2025	+30–50%	Confirms resource & de-risks field plan
Pipeline Construction Underway	July–Aug 2025	+20–30%	Narcot entry into execution phase
Pipeline Commissioning	July 2026	+50–100%	Gas generation capability solidified

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📌 Final Word

• Yes, shifting CH‑1 earlier is a meaningful operational acceleration—pushing several SP value drivers forward.

• No, it doesn’t alter Aminex’s revenue-sharing model or fiscal upside.

• The core valuation remains valid—but the timing of expected SP triggers and cash flows is now more immediate.

Aminex Share Price Triggers - 7 Events to a Multi-Bag Rise?

What is the expected timeline of news events coming from Aminex PLC during the coming twelve months. i.e. events that may trigger a lift in the SP!  What sort of lift (% wise) might each news item bring? Given the current known assets where might we expect the value to be?

So, how do the triggers stack up against what we have seen historically in small cap energy stocks...

Taking into account Aminex’s own projections of $40m net cash flow potential, I  have looked at the possibility of achieving 10p per share under both conservative and bull-case scenarios

The following percentages were based on typical small-cap reaction patterns in frontier gas developments—not strictly on cash flow modelling.

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✅ Can These SP Rises Happen?

Event	Likely SP Impact	Justified by Fundamentals?
Ground breaking	20–30%	Partially—triggers confidence
CH-1 Spud	30–50%	Yes—tied to future cash flows
CH-1 Success	50–80%	Yes—confirms resource potential
First Gas	70–100%	Strongly—actual revenue begins
Condensate Sales	30–50%	Yes—adds new revenue stream
Resource Upgrade	30–60%	Only if tied to faster monetisation
Buyout Speculation	100–200%	Market-driven, not model-driven

🧠 Final View

• These catalysts can move the price strongly—but the justification for long-term value >10p/share requires optimism beyond what current 5-year cash flows support.

• In short: 10p is possible, especially on momentum—but sustainable only with new news, either from condensate, strategic deals, or expanded reserves, which we do expect.

On Friday 11th July 2025 the price closed at 1.48p with a bid price of 1.4p. Assuming the 7 event triggers achieve the rises predicted above; based on the those percentages, what might the SP closing price be?  Both Worst and Best case scenarios...

If all seven major catalysts are successful and the share price reacts as expected, then:

• Worst-case cumulative share price: ~19.9p

• Best-case cumulative share price: ~74.8p

These are compound gains based on historical and speculative reaction ranges—not purely fundamentals. That said, these numbers show how speculative small-cap energy stocks can move dramatically with the right momentum.

Personally I think the first six events are all possible within the next 12 to 18 months, the seventh event is not something I see happening right now but it can't be ruled out long term, however that could be at a much higher SP than we currently have. Even without the seventh event we could be looking slightly under 10p from the worst case figures in a very short space of time.

Conclusion:  There are lots of minor triggers that can build momentum throughout the year and I feel 10p per share is achievable and particularly if the news flow from here remains strong.  With the AGM taking place next week, it is likely we will have an update on the FFD plans which could see another surge in price.  With EPC pipeline contract announced only 11 days ago we have already seen 23% rise from 1.2p to 1.48p and reading elsewhere,  Grok AI is predicting the SP to reach 1.59p within the next fourteen days.  As I conclude 1.52 has just been paid.  

NB: these percentage's are based on my own calculations and are not guaranteed figures. You should always do your own research and make your own decisions.

🔔 Aminex Highlights This Week and What to Watch

 

• NTORYA–MADIMBA PIPELINE EPC AWARD
  TPDC officially contracted China Petroleum Pipeline and China Petroleum Technology & Development Corporation to construct the 35 km pipeline connecting Ntorya to Madimba 

• INVESTOR SENTIMENT BOOST
  The announcement led to a sharp ≈40 % surge in Aminex’s share price, reflecting renewed confidence in Ntorya’s path to “first gas” in 2026 .

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🔍 What We’re Still Waiting For

While the headline EPC award is now public, these details have not yet been released:

• Specifics on contract value, execution schedule, and staffing or equipment mobilisation.

• Updates from ARA or the Chinese firms confirming mobilization, crew deployment, or site works.

• Any fieldwork or drilling milestones such as NT‑2 hook-up, CH‑1 spud, or NT‑1 workover commencement.

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🧭 What to Watch Next

Here’s what would constitute fresh, high-impact news in the short term:

• EPC contractor’s mobilisation notice, photos, or staff announcements.

• Reporting from ARA or TPDC on the start of on-ground activities.

• Operations updates on the NT‑2 tie-in or CH‑1 drilling progress.

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At this stage, the EPC award remains the standout news. When more details—especially on mobilisation or site works—emerge, that would mark the next major catalyst for Aminex and the Ntorya JV.

Ntorya Gas Deal: What Aminex Really Stands to Gain (Gas, Condensate & Long-Term Upside)

With pipeline construction set to begin and first gas targeted for mid-2026, Tanzania’s Ntorya gas project is entering full execution mode. For investors in Aminex PLC, now is the time to understand the full commercial picture—not just the gas volumes, but the growing revenue streams from condensate and long-term field expansion.

Here’s a breakdown of the key financial drivers and what Aminex’s 25% stake actually means in dollar terms.

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🧭 Who’s Involved—and What’s the Deal?

The Ntorya development is governed by a 25-year Production Sharing Agreement (PSA) and a long-term Gas Sales Agreement (GSA) signed in 2024. The parties include:

• TPDC: Tanzania’s national oil company; owns the pipeline and buys the gas.

• ARA Petroleum Tanzania (APT): Project operator with a 75% stake.

• Aminex PLC: Holds 25%, and is fully carried through development (≈$35 m net cost).

How the Revenue Works:

• 12.5% royalty goes to government off the top.

• 50% of the rest is used to recover costs.

• The remaining profit gas is split: a sliding scale gives the contractor 30–40%.

• Aminex gets 25% of the contractor's share.

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🔢 What Kind of Cash Flow?

At a baseline gas price of $3.00/MMBtu, Aminex could earn around:

• $1.4 million in Year 1

• $5 million+ annually by Year 5 as production reaches 140 MMscfd

But that’s not the only scenario. Here’s how cumulative 10-year returns change if gas prices climb.

📊 Gas Price Sensitivity

At $3.45 (the likely GSA price), Aminex could earn $42.6 million over 10 years. At $4.00, that rises to over $49 million.

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🔭 Long-Term Growth: 13 Wells, 280 MMscfd

The field development plan calls for up to 13 wells, targeting a potential production scale-up to 280 MMscfd over 10 years. This could double Aminex’s earnings versus the current 140 MMscfd model.

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🛢️ The Condensate Bonus (Based on $70 per Barrel)

Often overlooked is the valuable condensate discovered alongside Ntorya gas:

• ~3.5 barrels per MMscf based on Ntorya-1 test data

• Up to 20 million barrels in place

• Crucially, TPDC has no claim over condensate—meaning it can be sold at wellhead

At $70 per barrel, condensate alone could earn Aminex nearly $900,000 in Year 1, growing to $3.1 million annually as output scales.

📊 Condensate Revenue Forecast

📌 Note: condensate prices fluctuate based on oil markets, refining demand, and local offtake capacity.

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✅ The Big Picture for Aminex

• Gas: Low-risk, long-term earnings with development costs covered

• Condensate: Pure upside on top of core returns

• Expansion: Real potential to double revenues as new wells are drilled

For a company with modest G&A costs and no debt-linked development risk, Ntorya offers Aminex a rare mix of stability and optionality in a frontier gas economy.

TPDC Construction Launch Signals Green Light for Ara / Aminex Ntorya Development

Pipeline Momentum Builds as Dry Season Window Opens

With the EPC contract for the Ntorya–Madimba pipeline formally awarded in early July 2025, attention now shifts to execution—and there are growing signals that construction is set to begin imminently, taking full advantage of Tanzania’s current dry season.

⚙️ Operational Readiness: More Than Just an Announcement

While markets welcomed the EPC award with a sharp share price jump, the underlying operational reality suggests far deeper progress than the announcement alone implies. Aminex and its joint venture partner ARA Petroleum Tanzania (APT) appear to have methodically prepared for this moment over the past several months.

• Drilling infrastructure is already in-country: Pipework is stored at one of the Ntorya well sites, and the wellhead for the key Chikumbi‑1 (CH‑1) well has been ready for shipment for some time.

• The field development sequence is optimised and staged: NT‑2 will be the first well connected, using mobile testing equipment (no rig required), followed by drilling CH‑1, and later a rig-based workover of NT‑1 using the same equipment.

• This sequencing minimises logistical overlap and supports the planned ramp-up of production toward 140 MMscfd over the medium term.

🛠️ EPC Mobilisation: Signals Point to Immediate Start

Although the formal EPC announcement came in July, a series of operational indicators strongly suggest that mobilisation has been underway behind the scenes for some time:

• The rapid commencement of contractor recruitment for local positions within days of the announcement indicates that staffing plans were prepared well in advance.

• This is consistent with infrastructure projects where preferred bidders, once informally selected, often begin early-stage logistics, equipment procurement, and site planning before the formal signing—especially when delivery windows are tight.

• The public commitment to completing the project within 12 months adds weight to this view. Such a timeline would not be credible without supply chain arrangements already in motion and construction strategies finalised.

In short, while the market may only now be digesting the announcement, the project itself appears to be months ahead in planning, and construction is likely to commence during this dry season—between late July and September 2025.

🌧️ Why Not Wait?

Delaying construction into Q4 would push key trenching and infrastructure work into Tanzania’s rainy season, increasing costs and operational risk. That would conflict with the EPC contractor’s guarantee of delivery within a 12-month window—making it far more rational to act now, while ground conditions are favorable.

Additionally, well logistics, permits, seismic studies, and land access issues are largely resolved, meaning that the path is clear for field execution.

📈 Market Implications: A Potential Re-Rating Catalyst

Should Aminex or the EPC contractor formally announce mobilisation in the coming weeks—whether via photos, press updates, or site commissioning—it could act as a major share price catalyst, adding to the already strong momentum from the EPC award.

Historical market behaviour suggests such a trigger could generate a further 10–20% upside in the near term, as it would materially de-risk the timeline to first gas in 2026.

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✅ Final Word

With project hardware in-country, well sequences defined, and staffing underway, Aminex and ARA appear strategically positioned to begin construction within the current dry season. For shareholders and market watchers, the next catalyst is clear: physical mobilisation on the ground. And by all indications, that milestone may be just days or weeks away.

Walking a Mile in ARA's Shoes - Strategic Rationale for Retaining Aminex PLC in the Ntorya JV

Here’s a strategic rationale written as if from ARA Petroleum Tanzania’s internal planning team, arguing for maintaining the current JV structure with Aminex PLC, emphasizing the benefits of Aminex’s London market presence:

📄 Strategic Rationale for Retaining Aminex PLC in the Ntorya Joint Venture

Prepared by: ARA Petroleum Tanzania – Strategic Planning Unit
Date: July 2025

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1. Capital Market Access & Optionality

Aminex’s listing on the London Stock Exchange provides the Ntorya JV with indirect access to one of the world’s most liquid and reputable capital markets. This offers multiple strategic advantages:

• Enhances visibility of the project to institutional and retail investors.

• Preserves optionality for future fundraising—whether for downstream integration, exploration expansion, or reserve monetisation.

• Provides a clear public valuation benchmark for our asset base through Aminex’s market capitalization and disclosures.

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2. Governance, Transparency & Investor Confidence

The London listing mandates high standards of financial reporting, ESG compliance, and corporate governance. As a result:

• Aminex strengthens the JV’s perceived integrity and regulatory alignment, both domestically and internationally.

• Transparent public disclosures de-risk the JV in the eyes of financiers, multilateral institutions, and host governments.

• Enhanced transparency provides reassurance to the Tanzanian Petroleum Development Corporation (TPDC) and other local stakeholders.

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3. Geopolitical Diversification & Host Country Comfort

Retaining a Western-listed partner brings geopolitical balance to the JV, providing:

• Greater international confidence in the project’s operational structure.

• A “dual footprint” approach that aligns with host government interests in balancing foreign investment across regions (Middle East, Europe, Africa).

• Increased credibility with development finance institutions and bilateral aid agencies exploring gas infrastructure support in East Africa.

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4. Exit Optionality & Capital Efficiency

Aminex’s presence in the JV:

• Offers ARA long-term strategic flexibility, including potential monetisation of stakes via reverse takeovers, secondary offerings, or spin-offs.

• Allows for capital-light development, given Aminex’s cost-carry arrangement and minimal capital exposure during early ramp-up.

• Keeps ARA’s balance sheet flexible, with the ability to scale operations without assuming full ownership risk at this stage.

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5. ESG and Institutional Alignment

Through Aminex, the JV gains exposure to ESG-conscious investor groups and reporting frameworks, including:

• Task Force on Climate-Related Financial Disclosures (TCFD)

• UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

• Local stakeholder engagement protocols under LSE guidelines

This strengthens the project’s profile among:

• Sovereign lenders (e.g., AfDB, World Bank)

• Global investment funds pursuing sustainable energy in Africa

• Local regulators focused on responsible energy development

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Conclusion

Maintaining the current JV structure, with Aminex as a 25% non-operating partner listed on the London Stock Exchange, strategically benefits ARA Petroleum Tanzania in multiple dimensions: capital flexibility, regulatory alignment, stakeholder confidence, and future monetisation. These outweigh any perceived advantages of immediate consolidation. We recommend continuing and deepening the partnership during the upcoming pipeline and production ramp-up phases.