With pipeline construction set to begin and first gas targeted for mid-2026, Tanzania’s Ntorya gas project is entering full execution mode. For investors in Aminex PLC, now is the time to understand the full commercial picture—not just the gas volumes, but the growing revenue streams from condensate and long-term field expansion.
Here’s a breakdown of the key financial drivers and what Aminex’s 25% stake actually means in dollar terms.
🧭 Who’s Involved—and What’s the Deal?
The Ntorya development is governed by a 25-year Production Sharing Agreement (PSA) and a long-term Gas Sales Agreement (GSA) signed in 2024. The parties include:
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TPDC: Tanzania’s national oil company; owns the pipeline and buys the gas.
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ARA Petroleum Tanzania (APT): Project operator with a 75% stake.
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Aminex PLC: Holds 25%, and is fully carried through development (≈$35 m net cost).
How the Revenue Works:
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12.5% royalty goes to government off the top.
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50% of the rest is used to recover costs.
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The remaining profit gas is split: a sliding scale gives the contractor 30–40%.
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Aminex gets 25% of the contractor's share.
🔢 What Kind of Cash Flow?
At a baseline gas price of $3.00/MMBtu, Aminex could earn around:
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$1.4 million in Year 1
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$5 million+ annually by Year 5 as production reaches 140 MMscfd
But that’s not the only scenario. Here’s how cumulative 10-year returns change if gas prices climb.
📊 Gas Price Sensitivity
At $3.45 (the likely GSA price), Aminex could earn $42.6 million over 10 years. At $4.00, that rises to over $49 million.
🔭 Long-Term Growth: 13 Wells, 280 MMscfd
The field development plan calls for up to 13 wells, targeting a potential production scale-up to 280 MMscfd over 10 years. This could double Aminex’s earnings versus the current 140 MMscfd model.
🛢️ The Condensate Bonus (Based on $70 per Barrel)
Often overlooked is the valuable condensate discovered alongside Ntorya gas:
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~3.5 barrels per MMscf based on Ntorya-1 test data
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Up to 20 million barrels in place
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Crucially, TPDC has no claim over condensate—meaning it can be sold at wellhead
At $70 per barrel, condensate alone could earn Aminex nearly $900,000 in Year 1, growing to $3.1 million annually as output scales.
📊 Condensate Revenue Forecast
📌 Note: condensate prices fluctuate based on oil markets, refining demand, and local offtake capacity.
✅ The Big Picture for Aminex
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Gas: Low-risk, long-term earnings with development costs covered
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Condensate: Pure upside on top of core returns
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Expansion: Real potential to double revenues as new wells are drilled
For a company with modest G&A costs and no debt-linked development risk, Ntorya offers Aminex a rare mix of stability and optionality in a frontier gas economy.