Pipeline Momentum Builds as Dry Season Window Opens
With the EPC contract for the Ntorya–Madimba pipeline formally awarded in early July 2025, attention now shifts to execution—and there are growing signals that construction is set to begin imminently, taking full advantage of Tanzania’s current dry season.
⚙️ Operational Readiness: More Than Just an Announcement
While markets welcomed the EPC award with a sharp share price jump, the underlying operational reality suggests far deeper progress than the announcement alone implies. Aminex and its joint venture partner ARA Petroleum Tanzania (APT) appear to have methodically prepared for this moment over the past several months.
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Drilling infrastructure is already in-country: Pipework is stored at one of the Ntorya well sites, and the wellhead for the key Chikumbi‑1 (CH‑1) well has been ready for shipment for some time.
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The field development sequence is optimised and staged: NT‑2 will be the first well connected, using mobile testing equipment (no rig required), followed by drilling CH‑1, and later a rig-based workover of NT‑1 using the same equipment.
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This sequencing minimises logistical overlap and supports the planned ramp-up of production toward 140 MMscfd over the medium term.
🛠️ EPC Mobilisation: Signals Point to Immediate Start
Although the formal EPC announcement came in July, a series of operational indicators strongly suggest that mobilisation has been underway behind the scenes for some time:
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The rapid commencement of contractor recruitment for local positions within days of the announcement indicates that staffing plans were prepared well in advance.
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This is consistent with infrastructure projects where preferred bidders, once informally selected, often begin early-stage logistics, equipment procurement, and site planning before the formal signing—especially when delivery windows are tight.
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The public commitment to completing the project within 12 months adds weight to this view. Such a timeline would not be credible without supply chain arrangements already in motion and construction strategies finalised.
In short, while the market may only now be digesting the announcement, the project itself appears to be months ahead in planning, and construction is likely to commence during this dry season—between late July and September 2025.
🌧️ Why Not Wait?
Delaying construction into Q4 would push key trenching and infrastructure work into Tanzania’s rainy season, increasing costs and operational risk. That would conflict with the EPC contractor’s guarantee of delivery within a 12-month window—making it far more rational to act now, while ground conditions are favorable.
Additionally, well logistics, permits, seismic studies, and land access issues are largely resolved, meaning that the path is clear for field execution.
📈 Market Implications: A Potential Re-Rating Catalyst
Should Aminex or the EPC contractor formally announce mobilisation in the coming weeks—whether via photos, press updates, or site commissioning—it could act as a major share price catalyst, adding to the already strong momentum from the EPC award.
Historical market behaviour suggests such a trigger could generate a further 10–20% upside in the near term, as it would materially de-risk the timeline to first gas in 2026.
✅ Final Word
With project hardware in-country, well sequences defined, and staffing underway, Aminex and ARA appear strategically positioned to begin construction within the current dry season. For shareholders and market watchers, the next catalyst is clear: physical mobilisation on the ground. And by all indications, that milestone may be just days or weeks away.