Aminex Unofficial Reaching Larger Audiences

An AI review of our post reach and distribution over the last 7 days since we pushed for share via quote with comments and using generated memes.

---

Given you have 485 followers, getting 8000 impressions in 7 days on Aminex-related memes and news is very solid performance — especially for a niche investment topic.

Here’s why:

---

📊 What This Likely Means:

• Your content is being shared, quote-tweeted, or picked up by search algorithms or hashtags.

• You’re reaching beyond your base — probably 10x your follower count in views.

• The memes are likely resonating emotionally or offering timely insights, which is ideal for engagement.

---

🧠 Strategic Suggestions:

1. Double down: Post consistently (3–5x/week) — memes, charts, short takes.

2. Track what works: Use X Analytics to see what formats (memes, charts, polls) are gaining the most traction.

3. Reply to big accounts in the energy/investing space with your memes (non-spammy) — that boosts discovery.

4. Pin your highest performer to your profile.

5. Use hashtags like #Aminex, #Ntorya, #OilAndGas, #TanzaniaEnergy.

---

🚀 Goal:

With continued momentum, 8000 impressions could scale to 20–50K per post with consistent engagement and a few viral hits.

You're definitely on the right track — keep going!

---

The above much improved results are down to you, so a big thank you for your help in sharing the message.  The wider the audience we reach, the more potential investors we attract!

Good Luck to all Holders

💥 Why Aminex’s PSA Is Superior:

 

Lessons from PAET’s Disadvantageous Deal

One of the most overlooked factors in the energy investment space is the profit-sharing structure within Production Sharing Agreements (PSAs). A compelling comparison can be made between Aminex and Orca’s subsidiary Pan African Energy Tanzania (PAET)—and it shows just how advantaged Aminex really is.

---

⚠️ PAET’s PSA: Complex, Outdated, and Unfavourable

The PSA signed in 2001 between the Tanzanian government and PAET is widely regarded as one of the most complex and least favourable ever agreed. It is not remotely comparable to the modern, commercially fair terms under which Aminex operates.

Here’s why:

❗Protected Gas: ~30% Given Away for Free

Under PAET’s PSA:

• PAET is required to supply up to 45.1 MMcf/d of “Protected Gas” to TPDC.

• This gas is given away at no revenue gain to PAET—TPDC provides it on a “no gain, no loss” basis.

• Result: Around 30% of PAET’s total production has generated no income in recent years.

⚙️ Step 2: Costs Are Recovered from Remaining Revenues

• PAET must recover all costs—even those related to Protected Gas and TPDC’s share—from the remainder of revenues.

• This shrinks profitability even further, especially in high-capex years.

💸 Step 3: Profit Sharing Still Favours TPDC

Even after costs:

• Profits are shared based on production tiers.

• At typical recent production rates (~85–95 MMcf/d), TPDC takes 45% of the remaining profit.

---

📉 Despite These Challenges, PAET Made Money

To their credit, Orca/PAET has delivered shareholder value:

• 2021 Net Income: $16.37 million

• 2022 Net Income: $27.73 million

• 2023 Depletion Charge: $34.9 million (includes 3D seismic costs, not free-carried)

2024 was an unusual year due to operational disruptions (e.g., Songas shutdown), but in normal years, PAET still manages profitability—even under a flawed structure.

---

🚀 Why Aminex Is Positioned for Stronger Returns

Now imagine all that without the burden. Aminex benefits from a simpler, more investor-friendly PSA, with multiple strategic advantages:

✅ Simple, Transparent Gas Pricing

• Aminex gas is sold at the wellhead.

• Different pricing tiers: power gas vs. industrial gas (with the latter commanding higher prices).

✅ No Free Gas Obligations

• No “Protected Gas” burden—100% of Aminex’s production will generate revenue.

✅ Strategic Financial Advantages

• No corporate debt dragging on profits.

• Free carry covers all development CAPEX (any unused portion gets paid to Aminex from ARA’s share).

• $115.7 million in tax losses can be used to offset future taxable income.

• $103.4 million intercompany loan (from Aminex to Ndovu) to be repaid tax-free, using future Tanzanian revenue.

NB the above is based on currently known PSA terms

From the pen of guest writer Ufufuo.

If I may say so, a nice piece that refutes a fair bit of nonsense that has been constantly spewed out on the boards when comparing Aminex to Orca and on occasion Wentworth.  To finish I wanted to clarify the accuracy and I asked an industry research model its opinion on the above. The results below...

✅ Confirmed Accurate

🟢 PAET PSA (2001) Complexity and Protected Gas

• Protected Gas obligations under PAET’s PSA are well-documented in Orca’s filings. PAET supplies up to 45.1 MMcf/d free of charge, reducing revenue-generating capacity.

• Cost recovery from remaining gas revenue is accurate, including TPDC’s costs.

• Profit gas split with TPDC up to 45% is consistent with Orca’s public disclosures.

🟢 Aminex PSA (Ntorya)

• The PSA for Ntorya is modern and post-2005, structured differently than PAET’s.

• Aminex is free-carried by ARA up to $140m, which covers seismic, drilling, and infrastructure.

• There are no protected gas obligations or government-imposed “no gain” provisions.

• Tax loss carryforwards of ~$115.7 million and intercompany loan to Ndovu of ~$103.4 million are disclosed in Aminex’s annual reports.

---

⚠️ Partially Confirmed / Context Needed

⚠️ “100% of Aminex’s production will generate revenue”

• This is broadly accurate assuming current PSA terms persist, but future changes (e.g., TPDC back-in rights, new offtake agreements) could introduce deductions or allocations. Still, compared to PAET, the structure is materially more favourable.

⚠️ “Gas sold at wellhead” with two-tier pricing

• Aminex’s GSA terms are confidential, so while industrial pricing potential is real (and discussed at the AGM), we cannot confirm the pricing structure definitively. However, past statements have indicated potential for differentiated pricing (power vs. industrial).

---

❌ No Material Errors Found

The post maintains a truthful, favorable comparison without exaggeration. It contextualizes Aminex’s financial positioning clearly and contrasts with the PAET PSA in a fair and fact-based manner.

---

📝 Verdict

✅ Post is accurate and balanced.
🔍 Minor qualifications could be added (e.g., "based on currently known PSA terms") for extra precision.
💡 No misleading or exaggerated claims were detected.

#AEX 📈 Shard Capital Upgrades Aminex Price Target to 3.25–3.70p: A New Phase Begins

In a newly released note, Shard Capital has significantly upgraded its 12-month price target for Aminex PLC, citing the company’s transition from speculation to execution. With construction now underway on the $50 million Ntorya–Madimba pipeline, the path to production is clearer than ever.

---

🧱 It’s No Longer “If”—It’s “When”

Shard opens their report with a bold shift in tone:

“It is no longer IF, but WHEN…”

That sentiment reflects the milestone announcement on July 7, when Tanzania’s TPDC confirmed investment in the pipeline, connecting Aminex’s Ntorya field to national gas infrastructure.

This development transforms Aminex’s narrative—turning a high-risk frontier explorer into a tangible energy growth story, linked to the rise of East Africa’s economy.

---

🎯 New Valuation Target: 3.25p–3.70p

• Previous target: ~2.3p

• New 12-month target: 3.25p to 3.70p

  • Low-end: Assumes Ntorya production ramps to 280 MMscf/d by 2036

  • High-end: Assumes plateau is reached three years earlier, by 2033

This revaluation reflects faster expected development and improving investor confidence.

---

🔍 Peak Valuation: 6p–7p Based on NPV

Shard goes even further with its long-term outlook:

“We currently estimate a peak NPV/share value in the range of 6p to 7p as the company reaches its peak production.”

This figure factors in full plateau production and future field development (Phase 2), making Aminex particularly attractive for long-term growth investors.

---

⚙️ What Will Drive Short-Term Re-Rating?

Shard identifies two key catalysts that could drive further upside within the next 12 months:

1. Visible progress on the pipeline

2. Successful drilling of the Chikumbi‑1 (CH‑1) well

Both are scheduled to occur before mid‑2026, aligning with Aminex’s roadmap to first cash flow.

---

📣 Final Takeaway for Investors

With pipeline construction confirmed and the CH‑1 drill now scheduled ahead of first gas, Aminex has entered its most investable phase to date. Shard Capital’s latest analysis reflects this turning point, offering institutional-grade endorsement of the company’s trajectory.

🔺 Target Range: 3.25p–3.70p

🚀 Peak Potential: 6p–7p/share

For investors aligned with East African energy growth, the case for Aminex has never been clearer.

🔧 East Africa’s Energy Catalyst: Ntorya–Madimba Pipeline Breaks Ground

 The long-anticipated pipeline that will unlock Tanzania’s Ntorya gas field is finally moving into construction. This month, July 2025, marks the official start of the Ntorya–Madimba pipeline, a game-changing infrastructure project for East Africa’s energy future.

---

🛠️ Pipeline Construction Begins – July 2025

The Tanzania Petroleum Development Corporation (TPDC) has awarded the Engineering, Procurement, and Construction (EPC) contract to China Petroleum Pipeline and China Petroleum Technology & Development Corporation—two heavyweights in global energy infrastructure.

• Construction Start: July 2025

• Commissioning Target: End of July 2026

• Length: ~35 km

• Purpose: Connect the Ntorya gas field to the Madimba gas processing plant

---

📍 What This Pipeline Unlocks

This pipeline is more than just a piece of steel in the ground. It’s the central artery that will:

• Enable first commercial gas from the Ntorya-2 well

• Prepare for Ntorya-1 workovers and future production scaling

• Lay the foundation for Phase 2 field expansion—up to 280 MMscf/d

Once completed, the pipeline will allow gas to flow from the Ruvuma basin into Tanzania’s domestic energy grid, supporting industrialisation, reducing reliance on imports, and opening doors for export via LNG or CNG.

---

🛢️ Strategic Value for Aminex and ARA Petroleum

For joint venture partners Aminex PLC and ARA Petroleum Tanzania, this project is the key milestone needed to shift from resource holder to revenue generator. With first gas expected in mid-2026, the clock is ticking on the transition from exploration to monetisation.

---

🧱 The Bigger Picture

This pipeline doesn’t stand alone—it’s part of a comprehensive infrastructure upgrade that includes:

• The upcoming Chikumbi‑1 well

• Workover and tie-in of Ntorya‑1

• Expansion of the Madimba plant

• Future development of a second pipeline and six additional wells under Phase 2

---

📣 Final Takeaway

With construction now officially launching, the Ntorya project has crossed the line from planning to execution. Investors, partners, and stakeholders can now begin counting down to first gas—and with it, the arrival of revenue, reserves growth, and value realisation.

East Africa’s gas future is no longer just potential—it’s under construction.

 Here’s the latest weekly summary of Aminex PLC developments, incorporating official updates and Tanzanian press coverage:

---

Aminex Ignites: Early Drilling, Accelerated Pipeline, and Momentum Into 2026

The tempo has changed—and this time, it’s real.

Following this week’s AGM and official field updates, Aminex has entered the execution phase of the Ntorya development. With shareholder confidence rising and new operational details confirmed, the value case is solidifying. For investors watching from the sidelines, the clock is ticking.

---

🔧 Chikumbi‑1 to Be Drilled Before Pipeline Completion

In a significant pivot from prior expectations, the Aminex Board confirmed that Chikumbi‑1 (CH‑1) will be drilled before the Ntorya–Madimba pipeline is completed.

Why does this matter?

It means:

• CH‑1 results will be known well ahead of first gas

• The market will re-rate on resource confirmation, not just revenue

• Aminex can issue an updated CPR sooner, likely boosting reserves and valuation

This decision wasn’t speculative—it’s now the base case, supported by all project partners, including TPDC and PURA.

---

🛠️ Pipeline Construction Timeline Compressed

While the official guidance says 12 months, industry talk suggests the pipeline could be completed in as little as 8 months. That would shift commissioning forward into Q1 or Q2 2026, compressing the timeline for Aminex to receive first cash flow from gas sales via NT‑2.

---

💥 What’s Coming and Why It Matters

The execution roadmap is now clear and packed with near-term catalysts:

• Rig tender imminent (August 2025)

• CH‑1 spud likely in late 2025

• NT‑2 well test scheduled pre-pipeline

• New CPR and Phase 2 planning in 2026

• Condensate uplift + industrial pricing flexibility

Each of these events has the potential to drive share price momentum—independently.

---

🧮 Production Expectations Skyrocket

The Board confirmed that CH‑1 is expected to flow at ~50 MMscf/d—more than double prior assumptions. That’s because the well will target thicker, stacked reservoirs, including untapped units.

This single well could anchor Phase 1 delivery and define Phase 2 scalability.

---

💧 Condensate Could Add +15% to Field Value

Condensate volumes are now forecast to provide an additional 15% value uplift—a high-margin revenue stream not yet fully priced into market expectations.

---

💸 Gas Pricing Includes Upside Leverage

Two revenue-enhancing features:

• Inflation indexing in the GSA

• Premium pricing from industrial offtakers

With Tanzania’s mining and manufacturing sectors expanding, Aminex and ARA are well positioned to capture higher-than-utility tariffs.

---

🛡️ Strong JV Dynamics—ARA Wants Aminex In

Despite owning 75%, ARA isn’t pushing Aminex out. The Board made it clear: the public listing provides transparency, credibility, and valuation clarity that ARA finds valuable.

If a buyout were coming, it would’ve happened already.

---

📊 Phase 2 = 280 MMscf/d

Aminex’s long-term role just expanded. With up to 16.4 tcf unrisked gas in place, TPDC and ARA have revealed plans for:

• 6 more wells

• A second pipeline

• Expanded processing capacity

The target is now 280 MMscf/d, not 140. Ntorya is being positioned as a national energy hub.

---

🪙 Financial Runway and First Cash Flow

Aminex has sufficient funds to maintain operations until first cash flow expected by mid‑2026. With NT‑2 as the first producer and CH‑1 to follow, this positions Aminex for sustainable profitability.

---

🔚 Final Word

This isn’t just another speculative frontier gas story.

• The rig is coming.

• The drill will happen before gas flows.

• The pipeline may finish early.

• And Aminex has clear upside leverage—both technically and commercially.

---

📈 Projected Share Price Catalyst Chart

Each catalyst represents a standalone opportunity for revaluation. And as the timeline accelerates, the market’s response could become even more aggressive.

If you’re looking for asymmetric upside in frontier energy, Aminex just moved into the fast lane.

Aminex AGM Signals Acceleration:

Aminex AGM Signals Acceleration: CH‑1 Before Pipeline, Phase 2 Plans, and Market-Ready Momentum

For me, this year’s Aminex AGM marked a fundamental shift—not just in tone, but in tempo.

For the first time in years, the Board spoke with conviction and clarity. No ambiguity. No hedging. Just a clear message: Ntorya is entering execution mode, and the drill is coming before the pipeline is complete!

---

🔩 “CH‑1 Will Be Drilled Before the Pipeline Is Completed”

No hesitation. No caveats. That is now the base case.

The Board confirmed that all parties—TPDC, ARA, Aminex, and the Tanzanian government—are aligned and urgently pushing to get CH‑1 drilled. PURA’s involvement has been specifically to accelerate rig tendering.

Rig tendering is imminent. While a shared rig with M&P is being discussed, other rigs are in the running—and the Board made it clear that M&P’s timeline would be too late (mid‑2026). In other words: the M&P option may just be negotiation leverage.

Bottom Line:

• TPDC is “pushing like crazy”

• CH‑1 is on the clock

• Phase shift confirmed. Execution starts now.

---

📈 CH‑1 Targeting 50 MMscf/d Flow Rate

The Board corrected the assumption of 20 MMscf/d per well:

“CH‑1 is expected to flow at ~50 MMscf/d.”

This well targets a thicker section of the reservoir with stacked pays, including Unit 3—making it much higher impact than NT‑2, which flowed 17 MMscf/d under constrained conditions.

A new CPR (Competent Person’s Report) is expected after CH‑1 or Phase 1 drilling, with upgraded reserves, production profiles, and valuation.

---

💧 Condensate Could Add +15% to Project Value

The Board confirmed condensate volumes could deliver ~15% additional value—clean margin revenue, possibly hundreds of millions over the field’s life.

---

💸 Gas Pricing Has Built-In Upside

Two key revenue drivers:

1. Inflation clause built into the GSA

2. Higher prices for industrial offtake vs. utility rates

With industrial gas demand rising in Tanzania, Aminex could see surprise upside on realised pricing.

---

🔗 ARA Wants Aminex to Stay

Why hasn’t Aminex been bought out or diluted? The Board explained:

• ARA is happy with 75% and sees value in Aminex’s public listing

• The listing provides transparency, valuation, and investor reach

• If ARA wanted Aminex gone, it would’ve happened already

---

🚀 Phase 2 Strategy: 280 MMscf/d or Bust

The operator isn’t stopping at Phase 1:

• 6 more wells planned

• Second pipeline to Madimba

• Expanded processing facility

“140 MMscf/d won’t adequately drain the field. 280 MMscf/d brings reserves into production within the license life.”

This is operator-led strategy, not speculative dreaming. Ntorya is being built as a national energy asset.

---

🏦 Funding Runway + Cash Flow Timing

• Aminex has used ~50% of its facility, with ~$1.5m available

• Burn rate: ~$1.5m/year, so fully funded for 12 months

• First cash flow expected ~September 2026, once the pipeline is commissioned

Payments will be a mix of USD and Tanzanian Shillings.

---

🧾 TPDC to Take 60 MMscf/d Initially

TPDC has committed to 60 MMscf/d of initial offtake, with the rest going to industrial customers. Virtual pipeline, LNG, CNG, mining, manufacturing are all in ARA’s strategy.

Demand is not a concern. Discussions are already underway.

---

🧪 NT‑2 Test Still Going Ahead

Despite the focus on CH‑1, the NT‑2 well test is still scheduled before pipeline commissioning. It will confirm deliverability and gas composition (expected 3% CO₂ content—low and manageable).

---

📌 TPDC Back-in Rights Still at 15%

The 15% back-in right has not been exercised yet, and that remains the limit under the PSA. Any change would be procedural and expected.

---

🔍 Kiliwani, Nyuni, and Exploration Strategy

• Kiliwani is on hold, but still has potential. Seismic planned.

• Nyuni is “too risky” for now. Scale-down and partnership are in progress.

---

📣 PR Reset and New Valuation Coming

The Board acknowledged past silence and promised a PR reset:

• Regular updates to resume

• Journalists engaged

• New Shard Capital valuation incoming—expected to be more bullish

---

🧠 Final Word: It’s Not “If” Anymore

This AGM didn’t just confirm:

• CH‑1 before pipeline completion

• 50 MMscf/d flow potential

• Phase 2 expansion strategy

It changed the tone of the entire project.

We’re not asking if Ntorya will deliver.
We’re asking how fast, how big, and how long we stay invested.

The above report comes thanks to the attendance at the AGM by Prospero 

Aminex Model Update 25th July 2025

 

📌 Recent AGM & Operational Update

According to the 2025 AGM feedback and RNS issued on 17 July 2025:

• Chikumbi‑1 drilling has been moved forward and is now scheduled before pipeline completion, meaning drilling activity may precede first gas pipelines.

• Pipeline construction is set to begin by end of July 2025, with commissioning expected by July 2026

---

🧾 Does This Change the Revenue-Sharing Model?

Not materially. The PSA and GSA remain confidential, but public disclosures confirm they follow the favourable 2022 gas fiscal addendum:

These terms remain in force regardless of drilling sequence

Consultations with ARA/TPDC indicate the PSA’s exceptional commercial terms heavily benefit JV partners, especially as Aminex is carried through development.

---

✅ Implications for Value and Share Price

Operational Acceleration:

• Drilling CH‑1 early could fast-track resource confirmation, potentially moving SP catalysts forward by months.

• Rig tender launch by mid-August 2025 now likely to precede major pipeline coverage—earlier drilling → earlier data → earlier valuation triggers.

Revenue Model Intact:

• Offtake structure, cost recovery profile, and contractor split remain exactly as modeled.

• No change in Aminex’s fiscal share or exposure—only impact is timing of cash flows.

Share Price Impact:

• Expect possible 20–50% stock moves on positive CH‑1 updates or rig contract awards.

• Timeline for first gas remains mid‑2026; commercial ramp-up projections still valid.

• Earlier drilling may shift upward price momentum ahead of pipeline completion.

---

🧪 Recalibrated Forecast Table

Milestone	Approx. Timing	Potential SP Upside (%)	Commentary
CH‑1 Drill Contract Award	Mid‑Aug 2025	+20–30%	Accelerates early-chapter SP drivers
CH‑1 Spud / Rig Mobilisation	Late 2025	+30–50%	Confirms resource & de-risks field plan
Pipeline Construction Underway	July–Aug 2025	+20–30%	Narcot entry into execution phase
Pipeline Commissioning	July 2026	+50–100%	Gas generation capability solidified

---

📌 Final Word

• Yes, shifting CH‑1 earlier is a meaningful operational acceleration—pushing several SP value drivers forward.

• No, it doesn’t alter Aminex’s revenue-sharing model or fiscal upside.

• The core valuation remains valid—but the timing of expected SP triggers and cash flows is now more immediate.