Aminex Spotlight: Why Our Ntorya–Madimba Pipeline Contractors Are Among the Best

Why China Petroleum Pipeline Engineering and China Petroleum Technology & Development are the right partners to deliver Ntorya’s critical link to the grid—on time, safely, and at scale.

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1. Introducing the Contractors

China Petroleum Pipeline Engineering Co. Ltd. (CPP/CPPE)

• A CNPC subsidiary and one of the world’s leading pipeline builders

• Track record includes 130,000 km of onshore pipelines, 500 km offshore, storage terminals, and underground facilities across 50+ countries

• Key landmark projects: the $3.3bn Habshan–Fujairah oil pipeline in UAE (operational by 2012); flagship West-East Gas Pipeline and Myanmar–China Pipeline

• Awarded national quality prizes (e.g., 2016 Luban Award for Myanmar pipeline)

China Petroleum Technology & Development Corp. (CPTDC)

• Another CNPC affiliate, CPTDC focuses on technical services and equipment for oil & gas operations.

• Globally active with 53 offices, supplying drilling rigs, workover rigs, and over 5,000 km of pipeline equipment

• Manages full lifecycle support—from procurement to commissioning and after-sales, with ISO/API certifications

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2. Reliability & Capacity to Execute Multiple Projects

• CPP has consistently executed mega-scale pipelines globally, often running projects simultaneously across continents.

• By contrast, the Ntorya pipeline is a homogenous 30 km project, a minor undertaking in their portfolio—it’s operationally compact and fast-trackable.

• Their active project management systems, deep regional experience, and ability to mobilise mid-sized dedicated teams make them well equipped for this assignment.

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3. Understanding the Ground Realities—What They’ll Overcome in Tanzania

• Terrain includes local farmland and minor water crossings. Similar terrain—river crossings, wetlands and rural landscapes—have been part of CPP’s projects like the China–Russia East Route Gas Pipeline crossing the Yangtze ~70 m underground

• Challenges such as material logistics, handling monsoon weather, and community sensitivity are well within CPP and CPTDC’s wheelhouse due to previous African, Middle East, and Asian projects.

• They’ll leverage local contracts, operate under strong HSE protocols, and deploy their advanced welding and inspection tools, including their self-developed “Four Full-Capacity” systems.

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4. What This Means for Aminex Investors

• Project Scope: 30 km, straight-line, within-known terrain → straightforward logistics.

• Schedule Confidence: Mobilisation starts Sept ’25; pipelaying Jan–July ’26, which is short, manageable, and fits industry norms for this scale.

• Risk Mitigation: Contractor selection gives confidence—both in building competence and experience across simultaneous large-scale projects.

• Execution Edge: CPTDC ensures that technical challenges—from heavy lifting to commissioning—are matched with responsive support and global-standard quality.

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Summary Table

Attribute	CPP / CPTDC Strength
Size & Scope	Global-scale experts, this project is small-scale
Delivery Track Record	Major pipelines delivered ahead of schedule
Local Conditions	Tropical, flooding, and rural logistics familiar territory
Dual Project Delivery	EACOP and Ntorya pipelines overlap timelines; CPP handles both
Technical Depth	Advanced welding, inspection, and commissioning tools

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Bottom line:
Selecting CPP and CPTDC brings elite-level pipeline execution capability to Ntorya’s infrastructure. What may appear as modest work is well within their capability—and using these trusted contractors significantly lowers delivery risk for investors.

Aminex: The Ruvuma Basin Potential That Could Transform Ntorya

Beyond current reserves — how 16+ Tcf of gas, condensate uplift, and possible oil could multiply Aminex’s value many times over.

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1. From Current to Future

So far, our valuation discussions have been based only on 0.4 Tcf net to Aminex, which is the currently recoverable gas booked at Ntorya. That alone already suggests strong upside to today’s share price.

But the real long-term prize is the Ruvuma Basin itself, where independent assessments point to 16+ Tcf unrisked potential.

If the mapped ~16+ Tcf unrisked potential were progressively proved up during Full Field Development, Aminex’s 25% stake could reach up to 4 Tcf net — ten times larger than today’s discovered share! Even partial success (say 25–50% of that potential) would still lift Aminex’s net exposure to roughly 1–2 Tcf, materially above today’s booked ~0.2–0.4 Tcf.

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2. The Numbers — Scaling Up

Let’s use the same pricing assumptions as before:

• Base Case: $4.00/Mcf (domestic tariff)

• High Case: $6.10/Mcf (industrial tariff)

For 4 Tcf net to Aminex:

• Base Case → ~$16 billion gross sales

• High Case → ~$24.4 billion gross sales

Even after PSA splits (conservatively assuming 55–60% government take, though Aminex has agreed favourable terms), that still implies:

• $6.8–10.4 billion net to contractors

• $1.7–2.6 billion net to Aminex

Divide by 4.22 billion shares:

• Base Case ~31p/share

• High Case ~47p/share

That’s an order of magnitude higher than today’s 1.95p.

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3. Condensate Uplift & Oil Potential

The basin story is not only about gas:

• Condensate uplift: Ntorya gas is expected to carry ~15% additional liquids value, providing a premium revenue stream on top of gas sales.

• Oil upside: Drilling at NT-2 encountered oil shows in the mud, suggesting a deeper Jurassic oil play exists. If confirmed in later phases, this could open a whole new layer of value.

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4. Why Investors Care

Cove Energy’s billion-pound sale in 2012 showed that when majors see multi-Tcf scale, they pay heavily for it. Ntorya is onshore, with lower costs and direct access to Tanzania’s growing market — factors that make it even more attractive strategically.

Long-term holders believe much of the 16+ Tcf potential will be proved up, turning Ntorya from a domestic gas play into a basin-scale energy hub with regional importance.

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5. The Investor Takeaway

• Current reserves justify near-term upside.

• Basin potential could multiply Aminex’s value 10× or more.

• Condensate uplift (+15%) and possible oil add further optionality.

• Tanzania’s strong government backing and infrastructure funding reduce project risk.

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📌 Closing Line:
“The discovered reserves at Ntorya are already valuable — but the 16+ Tcf potential of the Ruvuma Basin is what could truly transform Aminex. With condensate and oil as additional prizes, the long-term upside is not just incremental, but potentially transformational.”

Aminex: What Ntorya’s Gas Could Mean for the Share Price

From current reserves to full-field potential, a closer look at revenues, PSA terms, and cost recovery.

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1. Headline Upside — The Big Picture

Aminex’s share of currently recoverable Ntorya gas is estimated at ~0.4 Tcf.

Using a base case domestic tariff of $4.00/Mcf and a higher industrial price of $6.10/Mcf, the gross lifetime sales values come to:

• Base Case $4.00 → $1.6 billion

• High Case $6.10 → $2.44 billion

With 4.22 billion shares in issue, that equates to headline values of:

• 28.8p per share (base)

• 43.9p per share (high)

👉 These are gross, pre-PSA figures, but they show why investors get excited: even the currently booked reserves generate multi-billion-dollar numbers.

And this is before considering condensate uplift, oil upside, or basin-wide volumes.

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2. PSA-Adjusted Reality — Still Attractive

Tanzanian PSAs normally allocate around 55–60% of profit gas to government/TPDC. However, Aminex has publicly highlighted that favourable conditions have been agreed in the amended PSA (commercially sensitive and not disclosed in detail).

That means the actual government take could be less onerous than the typical model — but even on conservative assumptions:

• Base Case ~3.0p/share

• High Case ~4.7p/share

versus the current 1.95p share price.

That’s 50–140% upside — based only on what is currently recoverable.

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3. How Cost Recovery Works (Capex & Opex)

A common misconception is that capex and opex simply reduce Aminex’s share. Under Tanzania’s PSA, that isn’t true.

• Operators can recover up to 50% of gross annual revenues as “Cost Gas”.

• This applies to both capex and opex until all are fully repaid.

• Unrecovered balances roll forward each year until cleared.

Example:

Suppose capex is $250m, and annual revenues are $200m.

• Year 1: $100m recovered (50% of $200m)

• Year 2: another $100m recovered

• Year 3: $50m recovered → capex fully paid off

From then on, more of the revenue flows directly as profit gas.

Opex is treated the same way — recoverable under the 50% annual ceiling — which means operating costs are also reimbursed before the profit split.

👉 This is why cost recovery actually improves early cash flows to contractors and ensures long-term netbacks are higher than raw PSA splits suggest.

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4. The True Prize — Full Field Development

Everything so far is based only on ~0.4 Tcf net recoverable to Aminex. But the Ruvuma Basin has an estimated 16+ Tcf unrisked potential.

If proved up during full-field development (FFD):

• Aminex’s 25% stake = ~4 Tcf net

• That’s 10× larger than today’s discovered gas

• On the same multiples, the per-share potential could be 30p–47p turning into 300p–470p

And there’s more:

• Condensate uplift is expected to add ~15% additional value to gas sales.

• Oil shows at NT-2 strongly hint at a deeper Jurassic oil play, which could be targeted in later phases of development.

Long-term holders therefore anticipate not just steady gas monetisation, but a basin-scale growth story with multiple revenue streams.

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5. Investor Takeaway

• Current Recoverables: Already justify upside against today’s 1.95p share price.

• PSA Economics + Cost Recovery: Show Aminex can recoup capex/opex and still achieve strong netbacks.

• Full Field Potential: 16+ Tcf basin, condensate uplift, and possible oil add layers of transformational upside.

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📌 Closing Line for Investors:
“Even using conservative PSA terms, Aminex’s share of Ntorya already implies material upside. With cost recovery mechanisms improving early cash flow, condensate and oil adding extra value, and the 16+ Tcf basin potential still to be proved, the long-term case for Aminex remains one of scale and strategic importance.”

Check in tomorrow when we do the sums based on the full potential of 16+ Tcf

What Is Aminex’s 0.4 Tcf of Gas Really Worth?

Breaking down Ntorya’s discovered resources, gas pricing, and billions in potential sales revenue.

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Asking the Question

In our first two articles we compared Ntorya’s discovered gas with Cove Energy’s 2012 sale, and then explored the much larger basin upside. But let’s pause on a simpler, practical question:

“If Aminex’s share of Ntorya is ~0.4 Tcf recoverable, what could that actually be worth in revenue?”

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The Price of Tanzanian Gas

Gas in Tanzania is not sold at global LNG prices but at regulated domestic tariffs. Still, the market is attractive because:

• The Gas Sales Agreement (GSA) for Ntorya is already signed.

• Demand is guaranteed: gas will feed directly into power plants and industrial users via the Madimba plant and national grid.

• Industrial tariffs have been reported around $6.10 per thousand cubic feet (Mcf) — reflecting a blend of state-regulated pricing and the premium paid by industry.

• For sensitivity, we can also consider a lower $4.00/Mcf base case (a conservative benchmark for domestic gas).

(Orca Exploration’s 2023 results showed average realised prices above $6, which reinforces the higher case as realistic.)

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Step 1: How Much Gas is 0.4 Tcf?

• 1 Tcf = 1,000,000,000,000 cubic feet.

• 0.4 Tcf = 400,000,000,000 cubic feet.

• In units of 1,000 cubic feet (Mcf):

  • 400,000,000,000 ÷ 1,000 = 400,000,000 Mcf.

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Step 2: Apply the Prices

• Base Case $4.00/Mcf

  • 400,000,000 Mcf × $4.00 = $1.6 billion gross revenue.

• Higher Case $6.10/Mcf

  • 400,000,000 Mcf × $6.10 = $2.44 billion gross revenue.

So even Aminex’s 0.4 Tcf net discovered share alone could generate between $1.6bn and $2.4bn gross sales over the life of production.

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Step 3: What Does That Mean for Aminex?

Of course, gross sales are not the same as free cash:

• Tanzania’s Production Sharing Agreement (PSA) splits revenue with the government.

• Capex and opex must be recovered.

• Timings matter — revenues arrive over many years, not in one lump sum.

But the exercise shows something important:

• Even using conservative domestic pricing, Aminex’s discovered gas represents a multi-billion-dollar gross revenue stream.

• Against a current market cap of ~£80m (≈$100m), that scale looks highly attractive.

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Step 4: The Benchmark

To put this in context:

• Orca Exploration reported average realised gas prices of over $6/Mcf last year.

• That aligns neatly with our $6.10/Mcf higher case.

• It reinforces that Ntorya’s gas, once flowing, is likely to achieve pricing toward the higher end of our range.

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Closing Thought

Asking “what is 0.4 Tcf worth?” shows why Ntorya is such a strategic asset. Even before considering the 16+ Tcf upside in the wider basin or the possibility of oil, Aminex’s discovered gas alone equates to billions of dollars in potential sales.

And with TPDC funding the pipeline and infrastructure in place, this value is not a theoretical number — it is linked directly to a contracted market hungry for supply.

For investors, that underlines the simple truth: Ntorya is underpinned by real demand, real contracts, and real scale — and the upside could be far greater.

Aminex Update: Pipeline Procurement Underway and Rig Tender Process Accelerates

Following yesterday’s RNS, new disclosures confirm Expressions of Interest for rig services have already been issued — ahead of schedule.

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Yesterday’s RNS: Two Key Milestones

On 27th August, Aminex released an RNS confirming significant operational progress at Ntorya:

• Pipeline:

  • Contractors have begun procurement of pipe and equipment for the 35 km Ntorya–Madimba pipeline.

  • Mobilisation of construction equipment is scheduled for September 2025.

  • Groundwork and pipelaying are due to start in January 2026, with completion by July 2026.

• Rig Tender:

  • The Petroleum Upstream Regulatory Authority (PURA) has approved the tender strategy for a drilling rig.

  • This approval enables drilling of Chikumbi-1 (CH-1) and a workover of Ntorya-1 (NT-1).

  • The RNS stated that Expressions of Interest (EOIs) from service contractors would be requested next week.

• Condensate Discussions:

  • TPDC, APT, and Aminex also discussed the processing and storage of condensate, highlighting an additional revenue stream beyond gas sales.

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Today’s Update: Ahead of Schedule

Less than 24 hours later, it has been confirmed via today’s release on X (formerly Twitter) that the Expressions of Interest have already been issued, a full week earlier than suggested in the RNS.

This over-performance signals:

• Strong operator momentum from APT.

• A clear alignment with Tanzanian regulators and stakeholders.

• A demonstration that the project is moving faster than timelines originally set out.

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Why This Matters for Investors

The combination of pipeline procurement, firm groundwork dates, and now the early launch of the rig tender process creates visible momentum on all fronts:

• De-risked schedule: Procurement and mobilisation show the pipeline is firmly on track.

• Accelerated rig contracting: The early release of EOIs means CH-1 and NT-1 are moving closer to execution.

• Additional upside: Condensate monetisation discussions could provide another layer of value.

This update underscores the Government of Tanzania’s and APT’s commitment to delivering Ntorya gas to the Madimba plant on time — and potentially even ahead of schedule.

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Closing Thought

Investors have long waited to see Ntorya move from planning into visible execution. With procurement underway, mobilisation imminent, and the rig tender already advancing faster than expected, that moment has arrived.

The project is not just progressing — it is gathering pace.

Beyond Ntorya: Unlocking the 16 Tcf Potential of the Ruvuma Basin

Why future drilling, deeper horizons, and even potential oil could transform Ntorya from a domestic gas play into a basin-scale energy hub.

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From Discovered to Potential

In our previous article we compared Aminex’s current discovered share of Ntorya gas with Cove Energy’s position in Mozambique back in 2012. That comparison was based on today’s proven gas only — roughly 0.4 Tcf net to Aminex.

But Ntorya sits within the wider Ruvuma Basin, a structure that independent assessments and operator mapping suggest could hold 16 Tcf or more of unrisked gas potential.

This is where the real long-term opportunity lies.

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Why Basin Potential Matters

Majors don’t just buy into what has already been booked. The Cove Energy bidding war showed that upside scale is what excites strategic buyers.

• Cove’s 8.5% stake equated to ~5–6 Tcf net when sold.

• If future drilling proves out Ruvuma’s 16+ Tcf potential, Aminex’s 25% stake could represent ~4 Tcf net.

• That’s on par with Cove’s net interest — but onshore, with lower development costs and direct access to a growing domestic market.

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The Jurassic Oil Angle

Ntorya’s story isn’t just about gas. During NT-2 drilling, oil traces were identified in the mud — evidence that deeper horizons could contain liquid hydrocarbons.

Originally, the Chikumbi-1 (CH-1) well was planned to target multiple stacked levels, including the deeper Jurassic formation. The revised location focuses only on gas, reflecting Tanzania’s immediate priority for domestic supply.

But in time, under Full Field Development (FFD), it is reasonable to expect that the Jurassic oil play will be revisited. If proven, this would add an entirely new dimension to Ntorya’s value.

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Tanzania’s Strategic Positioning

Tanzania continues to strengthen its role as an emerging energy hub. Recent announcements of cooperation agreements with Russian firms on oil and gas data-sharing highlight how the country is seeking to attract wider international partnerships.

While this has no direct bearing on Ntorya’s near-term gas project, it underlines that global players are watching the basin — a positive backdrop for future growth and potential transactions.

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The Bigger Picture for Investors

For Aminex shareholders, the significance is clear:

• Current discovered gas underpins near-term production and cash flow.

• Basin potential (16+ Tcf) could ultimately give Aminex’s 25% stake net exposure similar to what Cove Energy enjoyed at the time of its billion-pound sale.

• Oil upside offers an additional prize that is not priced into today’s valuations.

• Government and TPDC backing reduce financial risk on key infrastructure, keeping capital efficiency high.

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Closing Thought

Ntorya today is about gas, CPF construction, and pipeline delivery. But Ntorya tomorrow could be about much more: multi-Tcf basin growth and the possibility of oil.

That dual track of secure near-term gas revenue and longer-term basin-scale upside is what makes the Ruvuma story compelling.

Just as Cove Energy’s 2012 sale proved, when majors see that scale — they act.

Aminex RNS: Ntorya Operations Update Confirms Pipeline and Rig Milestones

Procurement for the Ntorya–Madimba pipeline begins, groundwork scheduled for January, while PURA approves the rig tender strategy.

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Key Highlights from Today’s RNS

• Pipeline Progress:

  • Contractors have begun procurement of pipe and equipment for the 35 km pipeline linking Ntorya to the Madimba gas processing plant.

  • Mobilisation of construction equipment will begin in September 2025.

  • Groundwork and pipelaying are scheduled to commence in January 2026, with completion targeted by July 2026.

• Condensate Value Addition:

  • Discussions are under way regarding the processing and storage of condensate volumes from Ntorya — an additional revenue stream beyond gas sales.

• Rig Tender Milestone:

  • The Petroleum Upstream Regulatory Authority (PURA) has approved the tender strategy for contracting a drilling rig.

  • The rig will be used to drill Chikumbi-1 (CH-1) and perform a workover on Ntorya-1 (NT-1).

  • Operator APT will request expressions of interest from service contractors next week.

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Why This Matters for Investors

This RNS confirms that multiple strands of Ntorya’s development are advancing in parallel:

• Pipeline: With procurement already under way and a firm mobilisation schedule, the long-discussed link to Madimba has moved from planning to delivery. A clear timeline to completion by July 2026 provides investors with visibility.

• Rig Tender: PURA’s approval is a regulatory green light that allows the operator to advance into contractor engagement. The drilling of CH-1 and the NT-1 workover will expand production capacity beyond NT-2, underpinning volumes for the GSA.

• Condensate: Monetisation of condensate offers upside beyond gas sales, increasing the value of the project.

Together, these steps strengthen confidence that Ntorya is firmly on its way to first gas, with strong backing from TPDC, PURA, and APT.

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Aminex Management Comment

Charles Santos, Executive Chairman, highlighted:

“Our discussions with the TPDC and the operator have been extremely fruitful, and we are delighted that activity on the Pipeline is proceeding as planned… PURA has approved the tender strategy, allowing APT to begin the tender process. These developments demonstrate again the Government of Tanzania’s strong commitment to this project.”

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Investor Takeaway

This update provides:

• Visible progress on the pipeline, with equipment procurement already started.

• Firm dates for mobilisation (Sept 2025), groundwork (Jan 2026), and completion (July 2026).

• Regulatory approval clearing the way for the rig tender and the next phase of drilling.

• Condensate upside adding to the project’s revenue profile.

For shareholders, this RNS delivers the clearest evidence yet that Ntorya’s development is advancing on multiple fronts, backed by Tanzania’s institutions and operator commitment.