📌 Recent AGM & Operational Update
According to the 2025 AGM feedback and RNS issued on 17 July 2025:
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Chikumbi‑1 drilling has been moved forward and is now scheduled before pipeline completion, meaning drilling activity may precede first gas pipelines.
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Pipeline construction is set to begin by end of July 2025, with commissioning expected by July 2026
🧾 Does This Change the Revenue-Sharing Model?
Not materially. The PSA and GSA remain confidential, but public disclosures confirm they follow the favourable 2022 gas fiscal addendum:
These terms remain in force regardless of drilling sequence
Consultations with ARA/TPDC indicate the PSA’s exceptional commercial terms heavily benefit JV partners, especially as Aminex is carried through development.
✅ Implications for Value and Share Price
Operational Acceleration:
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Drilling CH‑1 early could fast-track resource confirmation, potentially moving SP catalysts forward by months.
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Rig tender launch by mid-August 2025 now likely to precede major pipeline coverage—earlier drilling → earlier data → earlier valuation triggers.
Revenue Model Intact:
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Offtake structure, cost recovery profile, and contractor split remain exactly as modeled.
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No change in Aminex’s fiscal share or exposure—only impact is timing of cash flows.
Share Price Impact:
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Expect possible 20–50% stock moves on positive CH‑1 updates or rig contract awards.
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Timeline for first gas remains mid‑2026; commercial ramp-up projections still valid.
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Earlier drilling may shift upward price momentum ahead of pipeline completion.
🧪 Recalibrated Forecast Table
| Milestone | Approx. Timing | Potential SP Upside (%) | Commentary |
|---|---|---|---|
| CH‑1 Drill Contract Award | Mid‑Aug 2025 | +20–30% | Accelerates early-chapter SP drivers |
| CH‑1 Spud / Rig Mobilisation | Late 2025 | +30–50% | Confirms resource & de-risks field plan |
| Pipeline Construction Underway | July–Aug 2025 | +20–30% | Narcot entry into execution phase |
| Pipeline Commissioning | July 2026 | +50–100% | Gas generation capability solidified |
📌 Final Word
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Yes, shifting CH‑1 earlier is a meaningful operational acceleration—pushing several SP value drivers forward.
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No, it doesn’t alter Aminex’s revenue-sharing model or fiscal upside.
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The core valuation remains valid—but the timing of expected SP triggers and cash flows is now more immediate.