Sunday, 27 July 2025

Aminex Ignites: Early Drilling, Accelerated Pipeline, and Momentum Into 2026

 Here’s the latest weekly summary of Aminex PLC developments, incorporating official updates and Tanzanian press coverage:


Aminex Ignites: Early Drilling, Accelerated Pipeline, and Momentum Into 2026

The tempo has changed—and this time, it’s real.

Following this week’s AGM and official field updates, Aminex has entered the execution phase of the Ntorya development. With shareholder confidence rising and new operational details confirmed, the value case is solidifying. For investors watching from the sidelines, the clock is ticking.


🔧 Chikumbi‑1 to Be Drilled Before Pipeline Completion

In a significant pivot from prior expectations, the Aminex Board confirmed that Chikumbi‑1 (CH‑1) will be drilled before the Ntorya–Madimba pipeline is completed.

Why does this matter?

It means:

  • CH‑1 results will be known well ahead of first gas

  • The market will re-rate on resource confirmation, not just revenue

  • Aminex can issue an updated CPR sooner, likely boosting reserves and valuation

This decision wasn’t speculative—it’s now the base case, supported by all project partners, including TPDC and PURA.


🛠️ Pipeline Construction Timeline Compressed

While the official guidance says 12 months, industry talk suggests the pipeline could be completed in as little as 8 months. That would shift commissioning forward into Q1 or Q2 2026, compressing the timeline for Aminex to receive first cash flow from gas sales via NT‑2.


💥 What’s Coming and Why It Matters

The execution roadmap is now clear and packed with near-term catalysts:

  • Rig tender imminent (August 2025)

  • CH‑1 spud likely in late 2025

  • NT‑2 well test scheduled pre-pipeline

  • New CPR and Phase 2 planning in 2026

  • Condensate uplift + industrial pricing flexibility

Each of these events has the potential to drive share price momentum—independently.


🧮 Production Expectations Skyrocket

The Board confirmed that CH‑1 is expected to flow at ~50 MMscf/d—more than double prior assumptions. That’s because the well will target thicker, stacked reservoirs, including untapped units.

This single well could anchor Phase 1 delivery and define Phase 2 scalability.


💧 Condensate Could Add +15% to Field Value

Condensate volumes are now forecast to provide an additional 15% value uplift—a high-margin revenue stream not yet fully priced into market expectations.


💸 Gas Pricing Includes Upside Leverage

Two revenue-enhancing features:

  • Inflation indexing in the GSA

  • Premium pricing from industrial offtakers

With Tanzania’s mining and manufacturing sectors expanding, Aminex and ARA are well positioned to capture higher-than-utility tariffs.


🛡️ Strong JV Dynamics—ARA Wants Aminex In

Despite owning 75%, ARA isn’t pushing Aminex out. The Board made it clear: the public listing provides transparency, credibility, and valuation clarity that ARA finds valuable.

If a buyout were coming, it would’ve happened already.


📊 Phase 2 = 280 MMscf/d

Aminex’s long-term role just expanded. With up to 16.4 tcf unrisked gas in place, TPDC and ARA have revealed plans for:

  • 6 more wells

  • A second pipeline

  • Expanded processing capacity

The target is now 280 MMscf/d, not 140. Ntorya is being positioned as a national energy hub.


🪙 Financial Runway and First Cash Flow

Aminex has sufficient funds to maintain operations until first cash flow expected by mid‑2026. With NT‑2 as the first producer and CH‑1 to follow, this positions Aminex for sustainable profitability.


🔚 Final Word

This isn’t just another speculative frontier gas story.

  • The rig is coming.

  • The drill will happen before gas flows.

  • The pipeline may finish early.

  • And Aminex has clear upside leverage—both technically and commercially.


📈 Projected Share Price Catalyst Chart

Each catalyst represents a standalone opportunity for revaluation. And as the timeline accelerates, the market’s response could become even more aggressive.

If you’re looking for asymmetric upside in frontier energy, Aminex just moved into the fast lane.