Friday, 25 July 2025

Aminex AGM Signals Acceleration:

Aminex AGM Signals Acceleration: CH‑1 Before Pipeline, Phase 2 Plans, and Market-Ready Momentum

For me, this year’s Aminex AGM marked a fundamental shift—not just in tone, but in tempo.

For the first time in years, the Board spoke with conviction and clarity. No ambiguity. No hedging. Just a clear message: Ntorya is entering execution mode, and the drill is coming before the pipeline is complete!

🔩 “CH‑1 Will Be Drilled Before the Pipeline Is Completed”

No hesitation. No caveats. That is now the base case.

The Board confirmed that all parties—TPDC, ARA, Aminex, and the Tanzanian government—are aligned and urgently pushing to get CH‑1 drilled. PURA’s involvement has been specifically to accelerate rig tendering.

Rig tendering is imminent. While a shared rig with M&P is being discussed, other rigs are in the running—and the Board made it clear that M&P’s timeline would be too late (mid‑2026). In other words: the M&P option may just be negotiation leverage.

Bottom Line:

  • TPDC is “pushing like crazy”

  • CH‑1 is on the clock

  • Phase shift confirmed. Execution starts now.

📈 CH‑1 Targeting 50 MMscf/d Flow Rate

The Board corrected the assumption of 20 MMscf/d per well:

“CH‑1 is expected to flow at ~50 MMscf/d.”

This well targets a thicker section of the reservoir with stacked pays, including Unit 3—making it much higher impact than NT‑2, which flowed 17 MMscf/d under constrained conditions.

A new CPR (Competent Person’s Report) is expected after CH‑1 or Phase 1 drilling, with upgraded reserves, production profiles, and valuation.

💧 Condensate Could Add +15% to Project Value

The Board confirmed condensate volumes could deliver ~15% additional value—clean margin revenue, possibly hundreds of millions over the field’s life.

💸 Gas Pricing Has Built-In Upside

Two key revenue drivers:

  1. Inflation clause built into the GSA

  2. Higher prices for industrial offtake vs. utility rates

With industrial gas demand rising in Tanzania, Aminex could see surprise upside on realised pricing.

🔗 ARA Wants Aminex to Stay

Why hasn’t Aminex been bought out or diluted? The Board explained:

  • ARA is happy with 75% and sees value in Aminex’s public listing

  • The listing provides transparency, valuation, and investor reach

  • If ARA wanted Aminex gone, it would’ve happened already

🚀 Phase 2 Strategy: 280 MMscf/d or Bust

The operator isn’t stopping at Phase 1:

  • 6 more wells planned

  • Second pipeline to Madimba

  • Expanded processing facility

“140 MMscf/d won’t adequately drain the field. 280 MMscf/d brings reserves into production within the license life.”

This is operator-led strategy, not speculative dreaming. Ntorya is being built as a national energy asset.

🏦 Funding Runway + Cash Flow Timing

  • Aminex has used ~50% of its facility, with ~$1.5m available

  • Burn rate: ~$1.5m/year, so fully funded for 12 months

  • First cash flow expected ~September 2026, once the pipeline is commissioned

Payments will be a mix of USD and Tanzanian Shillings.

🧾 TPDC to Take 60 MMscf/d Initially

TPDC has committed to 60 MMscf/d of initial offtake, with the rest going to industrial customers. Virtual pipeline, LNG, CNG, mining, manufacturing are all in ARA’s strategy.

Demand is not a concern. Discussions are already underway.

🧪 NT‑2 Test Still Going Ahead

Despite the focus on CH‑1, the NT‑2 well test is still scheduled before pipeline commissioning. It will confirm deliverability and gas composition (expected 3% CO₂ content—low and manageable).

📌 TPDC Back-in Rights Still at 15%

The 15% back-in right has not been exercised yet, and that remains the limit under the PSA. Any change would be procedural and expected.

🔍 Kiliwani, Nyuni, and Exploration Strategy

  • Kiliwani is on hold, but still has potential. Seismic planned.

  • Nyuni is “too risky” for now. Scale-down and partnership are in progress.

📣 PR Reset and New Valuation Coming

The Board acknowledged past silence and promised a PR reset:

  • Regular updates to resume

  • Journalists engaged

  • New Shard Capital valuation incoming—expected to be more bullish

🧠 Final Word: It’s Not “If” Anymore

This AGM didn’t just confirm:

  • CH‑1 before pipeline completion

  • 50 MMscf/d flow potential

  • Phase 2 expansion strategy

It changed the tone of the entire project.

We’re not asking if Ntorya will deliver.
We’re asking how fast, how big, and how long we stay invested.


The above report comes thanks to the attendance at the AGM by Prospero