Aminex Turns the Corner: First Gas in Sight and Fresh Life for Kiliwani

Positive signals from the latest Interim Management Report

Friday’s RNS marked a genuine turning point for Aminex. For the first time in years, management has not only confirmed Ntorya’s rapid progress into construction — but also opened the door once again to future activity at Kiliwani and Nyuni. That’s a big statement of intent, and it suggests the company is in a far stronger and more confident position than many might have expected.

A Stronger Foundation

Executive Chairman Charles Santos set the tone clearly:

“The Ntorya Gas Development has now advanced definitively into its construction phase, following the award of the Ntorya-Madimba pipeline contract. This milestone has in turn catalysed wider activity on the ground and across the project.”

This is not vague promise; it is pipeline contracts awarded, procurement already under way, and a clear timetable: pipelaying begins January 2026, with first gas targeted for mid-year.

Ntorya isn’t a small play. With a 35-year horizon, production is expected to hit a plateau of 280 MMcfd — more than Tanzania’s current total output. Initial production from NT-1, NT-2 and CH-1 alone is expected at 60 MMcfd, with revenues for Aminex to follow swiftly thanks to the free carry deal still in place.

The Importance of Seismic and Planning

APT’s expanded Field Development Plan was built on the 338 km² of 3D seismic shot in 2022–2023. This data has given unprecedented clarity, derisking the next phases and cementing Ntorya as the largest onshore gas development in East Africa.

For Aminex shareholders, this means a foundation not just for near-term revenue, but for sustained value over decades.

Kiliwani and Nyuni Back on the Agenda

Perhaps the most striking part of the statement was this:

“Once Ntorya production and revenues are established, Aminex expects to refocus on the Kiliwani North Development Licence and the Nyuni Area PSA.”

This is the first time in several years that Kiliwani has featured in company messaging. The fact it is being brought back into the conversation now signals renewed ambition. A targeted 3D seismic programme at Kiliwani and a reshaped Nyuni work programme could add a further leg of growth — and importantly, the confidence to talk about them is itself a sign of strength.

Lean and Supported

Financially, Aminex remains disciplined. Operating costs are just $0.92m for the period, with Eclipse Investments continuing to provide backing via a $3m working capital facility. Crucially, the 2020 farm-out still means Aminex is carried through development costs until revenue arrives — removing risk and preserving upside.

Outlook: Momentum and Delivery

The company closes the half-year with momentum firmly on its side. The preparatory phase is complete. Construction is under way. Gas sales are on the horizon. And for the first time in years, Aminex is openly signalling its intention to go beyond Ntorya.

That is why Friday’s RNS matters. It’s not just about timelines and contracts — it’s about confidence. The mention of Kiliwani is a reminder that Aminex’s story is bigger than one field, and that management is now looking further down the road with optimism.

Aminex: What Ntorya’s Gas Could Mean for the Share Price

From current reserves to full-field potential, a closer look at revenues, PSA terms, and cost recovery.

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1. Headline Upside — The Big Picture

Aminex’s share of currently recoverable Ntorya gas is estimated at ~0.4 Tcf.

Using a base case domestic tariff of $4.00/Mcf and a higher industrial price of $6.10/Mcf, the gross lifetime sales values come to:

• Base Case $4.00 → $1.6 billion

• High Case $6.10 → $2.44 billion

With 4.22 billion shares in issue, that equates to headline values of:

• 28.8p per share (base)

• 43.9p per share (high)

👉 These are gross, pre-PSA figures, but they show why investors get excited: even the currently booked reserves generate multi-billion-dollar numbers.

And this is before considering condensate uplift, oil upside, or basin-wide volumes.

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2. PSA-Adjusted Reality — Still Attractive

Tanzanian PSAs normally allocate around 55–60% of profit gas to government/TPDC. However, Aminex has publicly highlighted that favourable conditions have been agreed in the amended PSA (commercially sensitive and not disclosed in detail).

That means the actual government take could be less onerous than the typical model — but even on conservative assumptions:

• Base Case ~3.0p/share

• High Case ~4.7p/share

versus the current 1.95p share price.

That’s 50–140% upside — based only on what is currently recoverable.

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3. How Cost Recovery Works (Capex & Opex)

A common misconception is that capex and opex simply reduce Aminex’s share. Under Tanzania’s PSA, that isn’t true.

• Operators can recover up to 50% of gross annual revenues as “Cost Gas”.

• This applies to both capex and opex until all are fully repaid.

• Unrecovered balances roll forward each year until cleared.

Example:

Suppose capex is $250m, and annual revenues are $200m.

• Year 1: $100m recovered (50% of $200m)

• Year 2: another $100m recovered

• Year 3: $50m recovered → capex fully paid off

From then on, more of the revenue flows directly as profit gas.

Opex is treated the same way — recoverable under the 50% annual ceiling — which means operating costs are also reimbursed before the profit split.

👉 This is why cost recovery actually improves early cash flows to contractors and ensures long-term netbacks are higher than raw PSA splits suggest.

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4. The True Prize — Full Field Development

Everything so far is based only on ~0.4 Tcf net recoverable to Aminex. But the Ruvuma Basin has an estimated 16+ Tcf unrisked potential.

If proved up during full-field development (FFD):

• Aminex’s 25% stake = ~4 Tcf net

• That’s 10× larger than today’s discovered gas

• On the same multiples, the per-share potential could be 30p–47p turning into 300p–470p

And there’s more:

• Condensate uplift is expected to add ~15% additional value to gas sales.

• Oil shows at NT-2 strongly hint at a deeper Jurassic oil play, which could be targeted in later phases of development.

Long-term holders therefore anticipate not just steady gas monetisation, but a basin-scale growth story with multiple revenue streams.

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5. Investor Takeaway

• Current Recoverables: Already justify upside against today’s 1.95p share price.

• PSA Economics + Cost Recovery: Show Aminex can recoup capex/opex and still achieve strong netbacks.

• Full Field Potential: 16+ Tcf basin, condensate uplift, and possible oil add layers of transformational upside.

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📌 Closing Line for Investors:
“Even using conservative PSA terms, Aminex’s share of Ntorya already implies material upside. With cost recovery mechanisms improving early cash flow, condensate and oil adding extra value, and the 16+ Tcf basin potential still to be proved, the long-term case for Aminex remains one of scale and strategic importance.”

Check in tomorrow when we do the sums based on the full potential of 16+ Tcf