Why Aminex’s 25% stake in a $5.3B asset is massively undervalued—and essential to powering East Africa’s future.
Tanzania is at a crossroads of transformational change. With one of the fastest-growing populations in Africa, a government-led industrialisation push, and mounting regional energy demand, the country is setting the stage to become East Africa’s energy hub.
At the heart of this vision is the Ntorya Gas Field—a resource-rich onshore gas field discovered by Aminex plc (AEX: AIM) now in partnership with operator ARA Petroleum. While most headlines focus on offshore LNG megaprojects, Ntorya is quietly becoming the real enabler of near-term, high-impact development across power generation, clean cooking, and industrial expansion.
🛢️ What Is Ntorya and Why Is It Crucial?
Located in Tanzania’s Ruvuma Basin, Ntorya is a discovered and appraised onshore gas resource with independently certified 2C resources of 3.45 TCF (trillion cubic feet). It is strategically located close to existing infrastructure:
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~35 km to the Madimba Gas Processing Plant (connected to the national grid)
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Within reach of industrial zones, power plants, and LPG bottling networks
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Tied to the government’s pipeline construction timeline, now under execution
In July 2025, TPDC awarded a contract to Chinese EPC firms for the Ntorya–Madimba pipeline, aiming for first gas by July 2026.
🚀 The Demand Side: Powering Growth and Decarbonisation
1. Electricity for a Growing Nation
Tanzania’s demand for electricity is surging, driven by:
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Industrial expansion (Kwala, Bagamoyo, Mtwara, and 5 new SEZs)
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Urbanisation and regional electrification (Kenya, Uganda, Zambia interconnectors)
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Replacement of expensive diesel generators in off-grid and peri-urban areas
Gas-fired power is a vital component of Tanzania’s Least Cost Power Development Plan, offering a flexible, cleaner alternative to coal and hydro. Ntorya’s gas could support:
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Mtwara’s planned 600 MW gas-fired plant
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Power exports via the Zambia–Tanzania interconnector (commissioning by 2026)
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Stability for the growing SEZ clusters
2. Clean Cooking Revolution
Over 85% of Tanzanians still cook with wood or charcoal, causing:
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Massive deforestation (est. 400,000 hectares lost annually)
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Respiratory diseases linked to indoor air pollution
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Lost productivity and gender-based labour burdens
The government’s Clean Cooking Energy Strategy 2024–2034 aims for 80% adoption of clean cooking solutions by 2034, with LPG and piped gas forming the backbone.
Ntorya—via processing at Madimba and planned bottling/distribution networks—could become a critical feedstock for LPG, accelerating this health and environmental imperative.
🏭 Ntorya + Infrastructure: Perfect Alignment
The Tanzanian government is making record infrastructure investments, many of which require reliable gas supply:
| Infrastructure Project | How Ntorya Supports It |
|---|---|
| Kwala Industrial Zone (2,000+ industries) | Pipeline link via Chalinze branch |
| Dar–Chalinze 102 km pipeline | Extends gas grid northward |
| Mtwara Corridor industrial sites | Direct proximity; gas-fuelled plants |
| Bagamoyo port/SEZ (700+ industries) | Industrial and export energy needs |
| 5 new SEZs (TISEZA, Aug 2025) | Manufacturing zones require consistent gas/power |
This infrastructure is not just domestic—Tanzania is now deeply tied into regional energy trade, with long-term plans for a Dar–Mombasa gas pipeline, power interconnectors to Uganda and Zambia, and LPG exports to neighbouring countries.
💰 Aminex’s Ntorya Stake: A Multi-Billion-Dollar Revenue Stream in the Making
📦 Step 1: How Much Gas is 0.4 Tcf?
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1 Tcf = 1 trillion cubic feet
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Aminex’s net discovered share: 0.4 Tcf
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In Mcf (thousand cubic feet):
0.4 Tcf = 400 million Mcf
💵 Step 2: Apply Realistic Price Scenarios
| Price Scenario | Mcf Value | Gross Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Base Case | $4.00/Mcf | $1.6 billion |
| Higher Case | $6.10/Mcf | $2.44 billion |
Even under conservative pricing, Aminex’s gas could generate $1.6 billion in gross sales over its production life — rising to $2.44 billion using industry tariff averages.
This isn’t speculative: the Gas Sales Agreement (GSA) is signed, and Ntorya’s gas is destined for guaranteed demand through:
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Madimba Gas Plant
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Tanzania’s national grid
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Industrial zones like Kwala and Bagamoyo
🧾 Step 3: What Does That Mean for Aminex?
While gross sales ≠ net profits, the exercise highlights one thing:
This is a multi-billion-dollar gross revenue stream backed by infrastructure, policy, and market need.
Factors such as:
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The Production Sharing Agreement (55–60% government take),
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Ongoing cost recovery (capex/opex), and
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Multi-year revenue timing
…will shape exact returns. But even adjusted for PSA terms, Aminex’s upside remains enormous.
📊 Step 4: How It Compares
For context:
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Orca Exploration (operating in Tanzania’s Songo Songo field) averaged over $6/Mcf in 2023 gas sales.
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This validates the $6.10/Mcf industrial pricing used in our high case.
So Ntorya gas is likely to achieve higher-tier pricing, not just the base GSA rate — making the higher revenue scenario entirely realistic.
🔍 Conclusion: Massive Value, Still Mispriced
With a current market cap around $100 million, Aminex is trading at:
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~6% of potential gross revenue at base pricing
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~4% of potential gross revenue at industrial pricing
This level of undervaluation—on a de-risked, demand-backed, GSA-approved, development-ready gas asset—is extraordinary.
As the Ntorya–Madimba pipeline moves toward first gas in 2026, investors have a rare asymmetric opportunity to enter a project with scale, timing, and strategic alignment fully in place.
🌍 ESG & Energy Transition: A Stronger Investment Narrative
Ntorya is not just a resource—it’s a climate-aligned, impact-driven energy project. It:
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Displaces biomass and diesel with cleaner, reliable gas
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Supports health, education, and gender equity through clean cooking
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Boosts Tanzania’s ability to trade energy regionally and grow sustainably
For impact funds, ESG-aligned investors, or frontier energy portfolios, Ntorya offers high upside with positive social and environmental impact.
🧠 Final Thoughts: Ntorya Is Not Optional—It’s Foundational
Tanzania’s bold industrial, electrification, and clean cooking goals depend on gas that’s already discovered, already financed, and already being built.
Ntorya is:
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Strategically located
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Nationally prioritized
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Technically de-risked
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Financially undervalued
As first gas approaches in 2026, and pipeline works begin in earnest, the clock is ticking on this unique asymmetrical opportunity. For investors willing to look beyond the offshore LNG fog, Ntorya and Aminex offer clarity, impact, and returns.
