From current reserves to full-field potential, a closer look at revenues, PSA terms, and cost recovery.
1. Headline Upside — The Big Picture
Aminex’s share of currently recoverable Ntorya gas is estimated at ~0.4 Tcf.
Using a base case domestic tariff of $4.00/Mcf and a higher industrial price of $6.10/Mcf, the gross lifetime sales values come to:
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Base Case $4.00 → $1.6 billion
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High Case $6.10 → $2.44 billion
With 4.22 billion shares in issue, that equates to headline values of:
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28.8p per share (base)
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43.9p per share (high)
👉 These are gross, pre-PSA figures, but they show why investors get excited: even the currently booked reserves generate multi-billion-dollar numbers.
And this is before considering condensate uplift, oil upside, or basin-wide volumes.
2. PSA-Adjusted Reality — Still Attractive
Tanzanian PSAs normally allocate around 55–60% of profit gas to government/TPDC. However, Aminex has publicly highlighted that favourable conditions have been agreed in the amended PSA (commercially sensitive and not disclosed in detail).
That means the actual government take could be less onerous than the typical model — but even on conservative assumptions:
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Base Case ~3.0p/share
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High Case ~4.7p/share
versus the current 1.95p share price.
That’s 50–140% upside — based only on what is currently recoverable.
3. How Cost Recovery Works (Capex & Opex)
A common misconception is that capex and opex simply reduce Aminex’s share. Under Tanzania’s PSA, that isn’t true.
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Operators can recover up to 50% of gross annual revenues as “Cost Gas”.
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This applies to both capex and opex until all are fully repaid.
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Unrecovered balances roll forward each year until cleared.
Example:
Suppose capex is $250m, and annual revenues are $200m.
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Year 1: $100m recovered (50% of $200m)
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Year 2: another $100m recovered
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Year 3: $50m recovered → capex fully paid off
From then on, more of the revenue flows directly as profit gas.
Opex is treated the same way — recoverable under the 50% annual ceiling — which means operating costs are also reimbursed before the profit split.
👉 This is why cost recovery actually improves early cash flows to contractors and ensures long-term netbacks are higher than raw PSA splits suggest.
4. The True Prize — Full Field Development
Everything so far is based only on ~0.4 Tcf net recoverable to Aminex. But the Ruvuma Basin has an estimated 16+ Tcf unrisked potential.
If proved up during full-field development (FFD):
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Aminex’s 25% stake = ~4 Tcf net
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That’s 10× larger than today’s discovered gas
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On the same multiples, the per-share potential could be 30p–47p turning into 300p–470p
And there’s more:
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Condensate uplift is expected to add ~15% additional value to gas sales.
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Oil shows at NT-2 strongly hint at a deeper Jurassic oil play, which could be targeted in later phases of development.
Long-term holders therefore anticipate not just steady gas monetisation, but a basin-scale growth story with multiple revenue streams.
5. Investor Takeaway
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Current Recoverables: Already justify upside against today’s 1.95p share price.
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PSA Economics + Cost Recovery: Show Aminex can recoup capex/opex and still achieve strong netbacks.
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Full Field Potential: 16+ Tcf basin, condensate uplift, and possible oil add layers of transformational upside.
📌 Closing Line for Investors:
“Even using conservative PSA terms, Aminex’s share of Ntorya already implies material upside. With cost recovery mechanisms improving early cash flow, condensate and oil adding extra value, and the 16+ Tcf basin potential still to be proved, the long-term case for Aminex remains one of scale and strategic importance.”
Check in tomorrow when we do the sums based on the full potential of 16+ Tcf
