Aminex: From Acorn to Oak – Chapter 7: The Ruvuma Basin Story

Ntorya’s promise and the wells that proved it

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If Kiliwani North was Aminex’s proof of concept, the Ruvuma basin was always the real prize. Stretching across southern Tanzania and into Mozambique, this frontier play had the scale to change the company’s future — if it could be unlocked.

The first breakthrough came in 2012 with the drilling of Ntorya-1 (NT-1). The well flowed at around 20 MMcfd of gas, with light condensate. For the first time, Aminex had a discovery of material size — one that could support development rather than just prove hydrocarbons existed.

Five years later, in 2017, the partners drilled Ntorya-2 (NT-2). This wasn’t just a repeat exercise — it was confirmation. NT-2 flowed at rates above 17 MMcfd and extended the known limits of the reservoir, it even brought the excitement of oil shows in the mud cuttings! With two wells delivering strong results, independent assessments began to point to hundreds of billions of cubic feet, and potentially over a trillion cubic feet, of gas in place.

For Aminex, NT-1 and NT-2 were transformational. Together they showed that Ruvuma wasn’t a marginal basin — it was one of East Africa’s most exciting undeveloped gas assets. But success brought a new problem.

Big discoveries demand big money. Building a processing plant, drilling more wells, and laying a pipeline to Madimba would cost hundreds of millions of dollars. For a junior like Aminex, already stretched by years of exploration, that scale of capex was impossible to fund alone.

It left the company at a crossroads: hold onto the prize and risk running out of money, or bring in a heavyweight partner with the resources to carry it forward..

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The Ntorya discoveries proved the potential. The next challenge was to secure the funding and expertise to turn them into production.

➡️ Next time: Chapter Eight — Farm-out & Transformation. We’ll follow how Aminex brought in ARA Petroleum, secured a $35m+ free carry, and positioned itself for a share of future cashflow without the burden of development costs.

Aminex Gears Up for 2026 Gas Production with Pipeline, CPF & Drilling Momentum

Key infrastructure moves from planning to action as Ntorya gas strategy accelerates

Aminex PLC is entering a transformational phase in Tanzania’s Ruvuma Basin as construction and drilling preparations advance toward first gas in 2026. With the full backing of the Tanzanian government and TPDC, the Ntorya development is finally gathering visible momentum—offering long-term value upside for shareholders.

🚧 Pipeline & CPF: A 30 km Link to Market

The 30-kilometre gas pipeline connecting Ntorya to the Madimba Gas Plant has been awarded to industry heavyweight China Petroleum Pipeline Engineering (CPPE), with equipment from CPTDC.

• Mobilisation begins: September 2025

• Pipelaying window: January to July 2026

• Project completion: By July 2026

The Central Processing Facility (CPF) will be built at Ntorya, ensuring direct feed into Tanzania’s national gas infrastructure.

For context: a 30 km pipeline is modest in scale for CPPE, which routinely handles 500+ km builds globally. This adds further confidence in timeline discipline.

🛠️ Drilling Plans: Rig Options & Timeline

Following PURA’s approval of the rig tender strategy in August 2025, the operator ARA Petroleum has already issued Expressions of Interest (EOIs)—ahead of schedule.

Candidate rigs include:

• Exalo Rig 202 – active in Zimbabwe; likely available late 2025 after Invictus campaign

• PR Marriott rigs – currently in Kenya

• Nabors rigs – in Uganda

• ARA’s own Oman-based fleet – with three active rigs that could redeploy within 3+ months

🎯 Drill Timing:

• Optimistic spud: December 2025

• More likely: January–February 2026

🌍 Government Support + Investor Upside

With a 25-year Development Licence in hand and the full cooperation of Tanzanian authorities, Aminex stands to benefit from:

• Favourable PSA terms

• 50% annual cost recovery from production revenues

• Strong local partnerships through TPDC and regional contractors

📊 Resource Potential: Strong Base, Big Upside

• Certified 2C net reserves: ~0.4 Tcf

• Full basin potential: Estimated 16+ Tcf, with up to 4 Tcf net to Aminex

• Condensate uplift: Up to +15% revenue enhancement

• Oil shows at Ntorya-2 add further exploratory upside

🎨 What’s Next on the Blog

Expect regular updates with simplified graphics, clean infographics, and clear investor messaging. We'll track:

• Pipeline milestones

• CPF progress

• Drilling mobilisation

• Project economics and PSA mechanics

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🔎 Bottom Line

The pieces are falling into place. Aminex is closer than ever to unlocking substantial long-term value at Ntorya—and 2026 is shaping up to be the inflection point.

Stay tuned for more updates as we track every move toward first gas.

Aminex: What Ntorya’s Gas Could Mean for the Share Price

From current reserves to full-field potential, a closer look at revenues, PSA terms, and cost recovery.

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1. Headline Upside — The Big Picture

Aminex’s share of currently recoverable Ntorya gas is estimated at ~0.4 Tcf.

Using a base case domestic tariff of $4.00/Mcf and a higher industrial price of $6.10/Mcf, the gross lifetime sales values come to:

• Base Case $4.00 → $1.6 billion

• High Case $6.10 → $2.44 billion

With 4.22 billion shares in issue, that equates to headline values of:

• 28.8p per share (base)

• 43.9p per share (high)

👉 These are gross, pre-PSA figures, but they show why investors get excited: even the currently booked reserves generate multi-billion-dollar numbers.

And this is before considering condensate uplift, oil upside, or basin-wide volumes.

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2. PSA-Adjusted Reality — Still Attractive

Tanzanian PSAs normally allocate around 55–60% of profit gas to government/TPDC. However, Aminex has publicly highlighted that favourable conditions have been agreed in the amended PSA (commercially sensitive and not disclosed in detail).

That means the actual government take could be less onerous than the typical model — but even on conservative assumptions:

• Base Case ~3.0p/share

• High Case ~4.7p/share

versus the current 1.95p share price.

That’s 50–140% upside — based only on what is currently recoverable.

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3. How Cost Recovery Works (Capex & Opex)

A common misconception is that capex and opex simply reduce Aminex’s share. Under Tanzania’s PSA, that isn’t true.

• Operators can recover up to 50% of gross annual revenues as “Cost Gas”.

• This applies to both capex and opex until all are fully repaid.

• Unrecovered balances roll forward each year until cleared.

Example:

Suppose capex is $250m, and annual revenues are $200m.

• Year 1: $100m recovered (50% of $200m)

• Year 2: another $100m recovered

• Year 3: $50m recovered → capex fully paid off

From then on, more of the revenue flows directly as profit gas.

Opex is treated the same way — recoverable under the 50% annual ceiling — which means operating costs are also reimbursed before the profit split.

👉 This is why cost recovery actually improves early cash flows to contractors and ensures long-term netbacks are higher than raw PSA splits suggest.

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4. The True Prize — Full Field Development

Everything so far is based only on ~0.4 Tcf net recoverable to Aminex. But the Ruvuma Basin has an estimated 16+ Tcf unrisked potential.

If proved up during full-field development (FFD):

• Aminex’s 25% stake = ~4 Tcf net

• That’s 10× larger than today’s discovered gas

• On the same multiples, the per-share potential could be 30p–47p turning into 300p–470p

And there’s more:

• Condensate uplift is expected to add ~15% additional value to gas sales.

• Oil shows at NT-2 strongly hint at a deeper Jurassic oil play, which could be targeted in later phases of development.

Long-term holders therefore anticipate not just steady gas monetisation, but a basin-scale growth story with multiple revenue streams.

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5. Investor Takeaway

• Current Recoverables: Already justify upside against today’s 1.95p share price.

• PSA Economics + Cost Recovery: Show Aminex can recoup capex/opex and still achieve strong netbacks.

• Full Field Potential: 16+ Tcf basin, condensate uplift, and possible oil add layers of transformational upside.

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📌 Closing Line for Investors:
“Even using conservative PSA terms, Aminex’s share of Ntorya already implies material upside. With cost recovery mechanisms improving early cash flow, condensate and oil adding extra value, and the 16+ Tcf basin potential still to be proved, the long-term case for Aminex remains one of scale and strategic importance.”

Check in tomorrow when we do the sums based on the full potential of 16+ Tcf