Why future drilling, deeper horizons, and even potential oil could transform Ntorya from a domestic gas play into a basin-scale energy hub.
From Discovered to Potential
In our previous article we compared Aminex’s current discovered share of Ntorya gas with Cove Energy’s position in Mozambique back in 2012. That comparison was based on today’s proven gas only — roughly 0.4 Tcf net to Aminex.
But Ntorya sits within the wider Ruvuma Basin, a structure that independent assessments and operator mapping suggest could hold 16 Tcf or more of unrisked gas potential.
This is where the real long-term opportunity lies.
Why Basin Potential Matters
Majors don’t just buy into what has already been booked. The Cove Energy bidding war showed that upside scale is what excites strategic buyers.
-
Cove’s 8.5% stake equated to ~5–6 Tcf net when sold.
-
If future drilling proves out Ruvuma’s 16+ Tcf potential, Aminex’s 25% stake could represent ~4 Tcf net.
-
That’s on par with Cove’s net interest — but onshore, with lower development costs and direct access to a growing domestic market.
The Jurassic Oil Angle
Ntorya’s story isn’t just about gas. During NT-2 drilling, oil traces were identified in the mud — evidence that deeper horizons could contain liquid hydrocarbons.
Originally, the Chikumbi-1 (CH-1) well was planned to target multiple stacked levels, including the deeper Jurassic formation. The revised location focuses only on gas, reflecting Tanzania’s immediate priority for domestic supply.
But in time, under Full Field Development (FFD), it is reasonable to expect that the Jurassic oil play will be revisited. If proven, this would add an entirely new dimension to Ntorya’s value.
Tanzania’s Strategic Positioning
Tanzania continues to strengthen its role as an emerging energy hub. Recent announcements of cooperation agreements with Russian firms on oil and gas data-sharing highlight how the country is seeking to attract wider international partnerships.
While this has no direct bearing on Ntorya’s near-term gas project, it underlines that global players are watching the basin — a positive backdrop for future growth and potential transactions.
The Bigger Picture for Investors
For Aminex shareholders, the significance is clear:
-
Current discovered gas underpins near-term production and cash flow.
-
Basin potential (16+ Tcf) could ultimately give Aminex’s 25% stake net exposure similar to what Cove Energy enjoyed at the time of its billion-pound sale.
-
Oil upside offers an additional prize that is not priced into today’s valuations.
-
Government and TPDC backing reduce financial risk on key infrastructure, keeping capital efficiency high.
Closing Thought
Ntorya today is about gas, CPF construction, and pipeline delivery. But Ntorya tomorrow could be about much more: multi-Tcf basin growth and the possibility of oil.
That dual track of secure near-term gas revenue and longer-term basin-scale upside is what makes the Ruvuma story compelling.
Just as Cove Energy’s 2012 sale proved, when majors see that scale — they act.