Aminex: From Acorn to Oak – Chapter 9: Seismic & Scale-Up

The data that turned a discovery into a giant

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With the farm-out complete and funding secured, the stage was set for the next big step: a fresh look beneath the surface. Until then, Aminex and its partners had relied mostly on 2D seismic data and the encouraging results of Ntorya-1 and Ntorya-2. It was enough to prove hydrocarbons, but not enough to map the full extent of the resource.

That changed when 3D seismic was acquired across the Ruvuma acreage. For the first time, the subsurface could be seen in high resolution. The results were striking. Structures that had been hinted at on 2D were revealed in detail. Reservoir connectivity was better understood. New drilling targets came into focus.

Most importantly, the numbers jumped. Independent assessments, incorporating the new seismic data, lifted the estimated gas in place from the hundreds of billions of cubic feet into multiple trillions. Ntorya was no longer just a promising field — it was Tanzania’s largest onshore gas development in the making.

For Aminex, still holding its 25% interest on a free carry, the upgrade was a game-changer. The farm-out had already ensured the company would not be bankrupted by development costs. Now the seismic confirmed that the upside was far greater than originally imagined. A quarter share of a small discovery is one thing; a quarter share of a multi-TCF basin is quite another.

The new seismic also laid the technical groundwork for the Chikumbi-1 (CH-1) well. Designed to test deeper zones and provide further calibration of the seismic data, CH-1 would help convert gas in place into booked reserves — the critical step for financing and long-term planning.

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For shareholders, the 3D seismic was the moment the story shifted gears again. Ntorya wasn’t just commercial — it was strategic, both for Tanzania’s energy security and for Aminex’s future.

➡️ Next time: Chapter Ten — To Be Continued. With the CPF under construction, pipeline contracts in place, and CH-1 on the horizon, the next RNS will carry the story into first gas and the long-awaited cashflow era.

Aminex: From Acorn to Oak – Chapter 8: Farm-out & Transformation

From survival mode to a funded path to production

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By 2018, Aminex had drilled two successful Ntorya wells, proving the Ruvuma basin’s scale. The problem was simple but stark: how could a junior with a stretched balance sheet fund a multi-hundred-million-dollar development?

The answer arrived in July 2018, when Aminex struck a farm-out agreement with ARA Petroleum Tanzania (APT), part of the Zubair Corporation of Oman. Under the deal:

• ARA would acquire 50% and take over operatorship.

• Aminex would retain 25%.

• Solo Oil continued to hold 25%.

The deal was approved by shareholders in early 2019, and completed in October 2020 after the long list of Tanzanian approvals was ticked off. For the first time in years, Aminex wasn’t scrambling for cash — it had a partner with the capital and the will to deliver.

The terms were transformational. Aminex secured:

• A $35 million carry through to production — meaning ARA would fund the development work while Aminex kept its 25% interest.

• Once gas flowed with the field under development, Aminex’s net cashflow was expected at $40 million per annum, without having shouldered the development costs.

For a company of Aminex’s size, it was nothing short of a lifeline. The burden of raising capital was lifted. The constant worry about dilution was gone. For the first time, Aminex could look forward with clarity: fully exposed to production upside, but without the crippling cost of building the project.

Meanwhile, the ownership picture shifted again in 2022, when Solo Oil (by then Scirocco Energy) exited Tanzania. Its 25% stake in the Ruvuma PSA was acquired by ARA, giving the operator 75% and leaving Aminex steady at 25% non-operated interest.

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For investors, the farm-out was the moment Aminex’s survival story became an investment story again. Years of scraping by on placings and hope were over. The company was now free-carried into production on a field with billion-cubic-foot potential — a rare position for any junior in the sector.

➡️ Next time: Chapter Nine — Seismic & Scale-Up. With 3D seismic acquired and interpreted, Ntorya’s potential leapt from hundreds of billions of cubic feet into multiple trillions, redefining the project as Tanzania’s largest onshore gas development.

Aminex: From Acorn to Oak – Chapter 7: The Ruvuma Basin Story

Ntorya’s promise and the wells that proved it

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If Kiliwani North was Aminex’s proof of concept, the Ruvuma basin was always the real prize. Stretching across southern Tanzania and into Mozambique, this frontier play had the scale to change the company’s future — if it could be unlocked.

The first breakthrough came in 2012 with the drilling of Ntorya-1 (NT-1). The well flowed at around 20 MMcfd of gas, with light condensate. For the first time, Aminex had a discovery of material size — one that could support development rather than just prove hydrocarbons existed.

Five years later, in 2017, the partners drilled Ntorya-2 (NT-2). This wasn’t just a repeat exercise — it was confirmation. NT-2 flowed at rates above 17 MMcfd and extended the known limits of the reservoir, it even brought the excitement of oil shows in the mud cuttings! With two wells delivering strong results, independent assessments began to point to hundreds of billions of cubic feet, and potentially over a trillion cubic feet, of gas in place.

For Aminex, NT-1 and NT-2 were transformational. Together they showed that Ruvuma wasn’t a marginal basin — it was one of East Africa’s most exciting undeveloped gas assets. But success brought a new problem.

Big discoveries demand big money. Building a processing plant, drilling more wells, and laying a pipeline to Madimba would cost hundreds of millions of dollars. For a junior like Aminex, already stretched by years of exploration, that scale of capex was impossible to fund alone.

It left the company at a crossroads: hold onto the prize and risk running out of money, or bring in a heavyweight partner with the resources to carry it forward..

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The Ntorya discoveries proved the potential. The next challenge was to secure the funding and expertise to turn them into production.

➡️ Next time: Chapter Eight — Farm-out & Transformation. We’ll follow how Aminex brought in ARA Petroleum, secured a $35m+ free carry, and positioned itself for a share of future cashflow without the burden of development costs.

Aminex: From Acorn to Oak – Chapter 6: Challenges and Decline

The pressure problems that forced a rethink

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Every gas field has a natural life. For Aminex, the thrill of first production at Kiliwani North soon met the reality of geology and pressure.

By 2017, just a year after first gas, KN-1 was no longer flowing at its earlier rates. Inlet pressures at the wellhead began to fall, production slipped below 1 MMcfd, and the flare that had once burned brightly was now little more than a flicker.

It was a sobering moment. For a junior like Aminex, Kiliwani had been the showcase asset: the first revenue stream, the proof that Tanzanian gas could be monetised. But as production declined faster than expected, it became clear the field was only ever going to be a modest contributor.

By late 2017, the well was effectively shut-in. Without sufficient pressure to sustain commercial flow, and with little appetite for further drilling in such a small structure, the partners let Kiliwani slip quietly into the background.

For investors, it was a disappointment. After waiting years for first gas, the payday had proved brief. But the experience wasn’t wasted. The GSA, the commissioning of infrastructure, and the operational lessons learned at KN-1 all paved the way for what really mattered: the much larger Ruvuma basin discoveries.

In hindsight, Kiliwani was always a stepping stone. It gave Aminex credibility as a producer, even if only for a short period. It proved that Tanzania’s new pipeline and processing system worked. And it reminded shareholders that small fields can’t carry a company’s future — bigger projects were needed.

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The fall of Kiliwani North closed one chapter, but it opened the next. Attention shifted firmly to the south, where the Ruvuma basin held a prize of a different scale.

➡️ Next time: Chapter Seven — The Ruvuma Basin Story. We’ll trace the Ntorya discoveries, the drilling of NT-1 and NT-2, and the promise of the much larger gas volumes that would redefine Aminex’s future.

Aminex: From Acorn to Oak – Chapter 5: First Gas

 When molecules finally flowed to market

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After years of drilling, licensing, and negotiating, the wait was over. In April 2016, Aminex announced that gas from the Kiliwani North-1 (KN-1) well had finally started flowing into Tanzania’s national grid.

It was a milestone not just for the company, but for the country. KN-1 marked the first time Aminex had moved beyond being a pure explorer and into the ranks of producing companies. Tanzania, meanwhile, gained a new domestic supply source to feed growing demand for power and industry.

The plan was a gradual ramp-up. Initial flows began at modest levels, with volumes increasing step by step over a 90–100 day commissioning phase until the system stabilised at around 25–30 million cubic feet per day. During that period, TPDC was invoiced monthly for gas produced, with payments made in advance under the security arrangements of the GSA.

For investors who had followed the company since the early Nyuni days, this was vindication. After more than a decade of waiting, Aminex could finally show a revenue line on its accounts — in hard US dollars.

It was also proof of concept. Gas from Kiliwani North flowed directly into the new Songo Songo processing plant and then into the pipeline system feeding Dar es Salaam. The whole chain — wellhead to processing to pipeline to end user — was now working. That mattered for the much larger discoveries in the Ruvuma basin, which would one day follow the same route.

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For Aminex, first gas was the reward for persistence. For shareholders, it was proof that the long story of licences, partners, and patient waiting had a tangible outcome. But as so often in oil and gas, the story didn’t end there. Within a year, new challenges emerged.

➡️ Next time: Chapter Six — Challenges and Decline. We’ll follow the pressure problems that reduced KN-1’s flow, forcing Aminex to rethink its strategy and refocus on the bigger prize in the Ruvuma basin.

Aminex: From Acorn to Oak – Chapter 1: Roots and First Stakes

From Eglinton Oil to Tanzania’s first exploration drills

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Every oak begins as an acorn. For Aminex, the acorn was planted long before Tanzania became the focus of attention. The story starts in the late 1970s with Eglinton Oil & Gas, later reorganised as Aminex PLC in 1991. For years the company roamed widely — taking positions in the USA, Russia, Egypt, New Zealand, even Pakistan. It was a restless, globe-trotting junior explorer, chasing opportunities where it could.

But 2002 marked a turning point. That year Aminex acquired Tanzoil NL and with it a small Tanzanian subsidiary called Ndovu Resources Ltd. Overnight, Aminex had a new frontier: licences stretching over the Nyuni area offshore and the unexplored Ruvuma basin onshore. Few in London had ever heard of Songo Songo Island or Lindi, but Aminex saw potential.

The following year, 2003, the company drilled its first Tanzanian well, Nyuni-1. It wasn’t a commercial producer, but it did something more important: it proved there was gas in the system. For a frontier explorer, that’s the first brick in the wall.

From there, the company pressed on. By 2006, seismic surveys were underway across Nyuni and Ruvuma, partly funded by partners like Hardman Resources. Farm-outs became a survival tactic: Aminex would shoulder the early risk, then bring in bigger players to help pay for the next stage. It kept the show on the road, but at the cost of giving up slices of the prize.

The next big test came in 2010, when the Likonde-1 exploration well was drilled in the Lindi licence as part of the Ruvuma PSA. This was a high-stakes venture with Tullow and Solo as partners. The well cut through more than 250 metres of sandstone with oil and gas shows — geological success on paper. But high-pressure gas influxes forced the operation to be abandoned before reaching its deepest targets.

For investors, it was another let-down. No commercial flow, no revenue. For the geologists, it was confirmation: hydrocarbons were there, just waiting to be unlocked.

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By the close of this first chapter, Aminex had transformed itself. It was no longer just a wandering junior with scattered assets. It was a company with its feet planted firmly in Tanzanian soil — a country that would define its future. Two early wells, Nyuni-1 and Likonde-1, had both proven hydrocarbons but offered no immediate payday.

Still, the conviction had set in: there was a commercial gas story here, waiting for the right drill and the right timing.

➡️ Next time: Chapter Two — Nyuni & Kiliwani Discovery. We follow Aminex as the company moves closer to the breakthrough that would prove Tanzanian gas could finally flow at scale.

Ntorya Gas: The Hidden Backbone of Tanzania’s Energy Revolution

Why Aminex’s 25% stake in a $5.3B asset is massively undervalued—and essential to powering East Africa’s future.

Tanzania is at a crossroads of transformational change. With one of the fastest-growing populations in Africa, a government-led industrialisation push, and mounting regional energy demand, the country is setting the stage to become East Africa’s energy hub.

At the heart of this vision is the Ntorya Gas Field—a resource-rich onshore gas field discovered by Aminex plc (AEX: AIM) now in partnership with operator ARA Petroleum. While most headlines focus on offshore LNG megaprojects, Ntorya is quietly becoming the real enabler of near-term, high-impact development across power generation, clean cooking, and industrial expansion.

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🛢️ What Is Ntorya and Why Is It Crucial?

Located in Tanzania’s Ruvuma Basin, Ntorya is a discovered and appraised onshore gas resource with independently certified 2C resources of 3.45 TCF (trillion cubic feet). It is strategically located close to existing infrastructure:

• ~35 km to the Madimba Gas Processing Plant (connected to the national grid)

• Within reach of industrial zones, power plants, and LPG bottling networks

• Tied to the government’s pipeline construction timeline, now under execution

In July 2025, TPDC awarded a contract to Chinese EPC firms for the Ntorya–Madimba pipeline, aiming for first gas by July 2026.

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🚀 The Demand Side: Powering Growth and Decarbonisation

1. Electricity for a Growing Nation

Tanzania’s demand for electricity is surging, driven by:

• Industrial expansion (Kwala, Bagamoyo, Mtwara, and 5 new SEZs)

• Urbanisation and regional electrification (Kenya, Uganda, Zambia interconnectors)

• Replacement of expensive diesel generators in off-grid and peri-urban areas

Gas-fired power is a vital component of Tanzania’s Least Cost Power Development Plan, offering a flexible, cleaner alternative to coal and hydro. Ntorya’s gas could support:

• Mtwara’s planned 600 MW gas-fired plant

• Power exports via the Zambia–Tanzania interconnector (commissioning by 2026)

• Stability for the growing SEZ clusters

2. Clean Cooking Revolution

Over 85% of Tanzanians still cook with wood or charcoal, causing:

• Massive deforestation (est. 400,000 hectares lost annually)

• Respiratory diseases linked to indoor air pollution

• Lost productivity and gender-based labour burdens

The government’s Clean Cooking Energy Strategy 2024–2034 aims for 80% adoption of clean cooking solutions by 2034, with LPG and piped gas forming the backbone.

Ntorya—via processing at Madimba and planned bottling/distribution networks—could become a critical feedstock for LPG, accelerating this health and environmental imperative.

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🏭 Ntorya + Infrastructure: Perfect Alignment

The Tanzanian government is making record infrastructure investments, many of which require reliable gas supply:

Infrastructure Project	How Ntorya Supports It
Kwala Industrial Zone (2,000+ industries)	Pipeline link via Chalinze branch
Dar–Chalinze 102 km pipeline	Extends gas grid northward
Mtwara Corridor industrial sites	Direct proximity; gas-fuelled plants
Bagamoyo port/SEZ (700+ industries)	Industrial and export energy needs
5 new SEZs (TISEZA, Aug 2025)	Manufacturing zones require consistent gas/power

This infrastructure is not just domestic—Tanzania is now deeply tied into regional energy trade, with long-term plans for a Dar–Mombasa gas pipeline, power interconnectors to Uganda and Zambia, and LPG exports to neighbouring countries.

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💰 Aminex’s Ntorya Stake: A Multi-Billion-Dollar Revenue Stream in the Making

📦 Step 1: How Much Gas is 0.4 Tcf?

• 1 Tcf = 1 trillion cubic feet

• Aminex’s net discovered share: 0.4 Tcf

• In Mcf (thousand cubic feet):
  0.4 Tcf = 400 million Mcf

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💵 Step 2: Apply Realistic Price Scenarios

Price Scenario	Mcf Value	Gross Revenue
Base Case	$4.00/Mcf	$1.6 billion
Higher Case	$6.10/Mcf	$2.44 billion

Even under conservative pricing, Aminex’s gas could generate $1.6 billion in gross sales over its production life — rising to $2.44 billion using industry tariff averages.

This isn’t speculative: the Gas Sales Agreement (GSA) is signed, and Ntorya’s gas is destined for guaranteed demand through:

• Madimba Gas Plant

• Tanzania’s national grid

• Industrial zones like Kwala and Bagamoyo

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🧾 Step 3: What Does That Mean for Aminex?

While gross sales ≠ net profits, the exercise highlights one thing:

This is a multi-billion-dollar gross revenue stream backed by infrastructure, policy, and market need.

Factors such as:

• The Production Sharing Agreement (55–60% government take),

• Ongoing cost recovery (capex/opex), and

• Multi-year revenue timing

…will shape exact returns. But even adjusted for PSA terms, Aminex’s upside remains enormous.

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📊 Step 4: How It Compares

For context:

• Orca Exploration (operating in Tanzania’s Songo Songo field) averaged over $6/Mcf in 2023 gas sales.

• This validates the $6.10/Mcf industrial pricing used in our high case.

So Ntorya gas is likely to achieve higher-tier pricing, not just the base GSA rate — making the higher revenue scenario entirely realistic.

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🔍 Conclusion: Massive Value, Still Mispriced

With a current market cap around $100 million, Aminex is trading at:

• ~6% of potential gross revenue at base pricing

• ~4% of potential gross revenue at industrial pricing

This level of undervaluation—on a de-risked, demand-backed, GSA-approved, development-ready gas asset—is extraordinary.

As the Ntorya–Madimba pipeline moves toward first gas in 2026, investors have a rare asymmetric opportunity to enter a project with scale, timing, and strategic alignment fully in place.

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🌍 ESG & Energy Transition: A Stronger Investment Narrative

Ntorya is not just a resource—it’s a climate-aligned, impact-driven energy project. It:

• Displaces biomass and diesel with cleaner, reliable gas

• Supports health, education, and gender equity through clean cooking

• Boosts Tanzania’s ability to trade energy regionally and grow sustainably

For impact funds, ESG-aligned investors, or frontier energy portfolios, Ntorya offers high upside with positive social and environmental impact.

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🧠 Final Thoughts: Ntorya Is Not Optional—It’s Foundational

Tanzania’s bold industrial, electrification, and clean cooking goals depend on gas that’s already discovered, already financed, and already being built.

Ntorya is:

• Strategically located

• Nationally prioritized

• Technically de-risked

• Financially undervalued

As first gas approaches in 2026, and pipeline works begin in earnest, the clock is ticking on this unique asymmetrical opportunity. For investors willing to look beyond the offshore LNG fog, Ntorya and Aminex offer clarity, impact, and returns.

Aminex Gears Up for 2026 Gas Production with Pipeline, CPF & Drilling Momentum

Key infrastructure moves from planning to action as Ntorya gas strategy accelerates

Aminex PLC is entering a transformational phase in Tanzania’s Ruvuma Basin as construction and drilling preparations advance toward first gas in 2026. With the full backing of the Tanzanian government and TPDC, the Ntorya development is finally gathering visible momentum—offering long-term value upside for shareholders.

🚧 Pipeline & CPF: A 30 km Link to Market

The 30-kilometre gas pipeline connecting Ntorya to the Madimba Gas Plant has been awarded to industry heavyweight China Petroleum Pipeline Engineering (CPPE), with equipment from CPTDC.

• Mobilisation begins: September 2025

• Pipelaying window: January to July 2026

• Project completion: By July 2026

The Central Processing Facility (CPF) will be built at Ntorya, ensuring direct feed into Tanzania’s national gas infrastructure.

For context: a 30 km pipeline is modest in scale for CPPE, which routinely handles 500+ km builds globally. This adds further confidence in timeline discipline.

🛠️ Drilling Plans: Rig Options & Timeline

Following PURA’s approval of the rig tender strategy in August 2025, the operator ARA Petroleum has already issued Expressions of Interest (EOIs)—ahead of schedule.

Candidate rigs include:

• Exalo Rig 202 – active in Zimbabwe; likely available late 2025 after Invictus campaign

• PR Marriott rigs – currently in Kenya

• Nabors rigs – in Uganda

• ARA’s own Oman-based fleet – with three active rigs that could redeploy within 3+ months

🎯 Drill Timing:

• Optimistic spud: December 2025

• More likely: January–February 2026

🌍 Government Support + Investor Upside

With a 25-year Development Licence in hand and the full cooperation of Tanzanian authorities, Aminex stands to benefit from:

• Favourable PSA terms

• 50% annual cost recovery from production revenues

• Strong local partnerships through TPDC and regional contractors

📊 Resource Potential: Strong Base, Big Upside

• Certified 2C net reserves: ~0.4 Tcf

• Full basin potential: Estimated 16+ Tcf, with up to 4 Tcf net to Aminex

• Condensate uplift: Up to +15% revenue enhancement

• Oil shows at Ntorya-2 add further exploratory upside

🎨 What’s Next on the Blog

Expect regular updates with simplified graphics, clean infographics, and clear investor messaging. We'll track:

• Pipeline milestones

• CPF progress

• Drilling mobilisation

• Project economics and PSA mechanics

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🔎 Bottom Line

The pieces are falling into place. Aminex is closer than ever to unlocking substantial long-term value at Ntorya—and 2026 is shaping up to be the inflection point.

Stay tuned for more updates as we track every move toward first gas.

Aminex: The Ruvuma Basin Potential That Could Transform Ntorya

Beyond current reserves — how 16+ Tcf of gas, condensate uplift, and possible oil could multiply Aminex’s value many times over.

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1. From Current to Future

So far, our valuation discussions have been based only on 0.4 Tcf net to Aminex, which is the currently recoverable gas booked at Ntorya. That alone already suggests strong upside to today’s share price.

But the real long-term prize is the Ruvuma Basin itself, where independent assessments point to 16+ Tcf unrisked potential.

If the mapped ~16+ Tcf unrisked potential were progressively proved up during Full Field Development, Aminex’s 25% stake could reach up to 4 Tcf net — ten times larger than today’s discovered share! Even partial success (say 25–50% of that potential) would still lift Aminex’s net exposure to roughly 1–2 Tcf, materially above today’s booked ~0.2–0.4 Tcf.

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2. The Numbers — Scaling Up

Let’s use the same pricing assumptions as before:

• Base Case: $4.00/Mcf (domestic tariff)

• High Case: $6.10/Mcf (industrial tariff)

For 4 Tcf net to Aminex:

• Base Case → ~$16 billion gross sales

• High Case → ~$24.4 billion gross sales

Even after PSA splits (conservatively assuming 55–60% government take, though Aminex has agreed favourable terms), that still implies:

• $6.8–10.4 billion net to contractors

• $1.7–2.6 billion net to Aminex

Divide by 4.22 billion shares:

• Base Case ~31p/share

• High Case ~47p/share

That’s an order of magnitude higher than today’s 1.95p.

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3. Condensate Uplift & Oil Potential

The basin story is not only about gas:

• Condensate uplift: Ntorya gas is expected to carry ~15% additional liquids value, providing a premium revenue stream on top of gas sales.

• Oil upside: Drilling at NT-2 encountered oil shows in the mud, suggesting a deeper Jurassic oil play exists. If confirmed in later phases, this could open a whole new layer of value.

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4. Why Investors Care

Cove Energy’s billion-pound sale in 2012 showed that when majors see multi-Tcf scale, they pay heavily for it. Ntorya is onshore, with lower costs and direct access to Tanzania’s growing market — factors that make it even more attractive strategically.

Long-term holders believe much of the 16+ Tcf potential will be proved up, turning Ntorya from a domestic gas play into a basin-scale energy hub with regional importance.

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5. The Investor Takeaway

• Current reserves justify near-term upside.

• Basin potential could multiply Aminex’s value 10× or more.

• Condensate uplift (+15%) and possible oil add further optionality.

• Tanzania’s strong government backing and infrastructure funding reduce project risk.

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📌 Closing Line:
“The discovered reserves at Ntorya are already valuable — but the 16+ Tcf potential of the Ruvuma Basin is what could truly transform Aminex. With condensate and oil as additional prizes, the long-term upside is not just incremental, but potentially transformational.”

Aminex: What Ntorya’s Gas Could Mean for the Share Price

From current reserves to full-field potential, a closer look at revenues, PSA terms, and cost recovery.

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1. Headline Upside — The Big Picture

Aminex’s share of currently recoverable Ntorya gas is estimated at ~0.4 Tcf.

Using a base case domestic tariff of $4.00/Mcf and a higher industrial price of $6.10/Mcf, the gross lifetime sales values come to:

• Base Case $4.00 → $1.6 billion

• High Case $6.10 → $2.44 billion

With 4.22 billion shares in issue, that equates to headline values of:

• 28.8p per share (base)

• 43.9p per share (high)

👉 These are gross, pre-PSA figures, but they show why investors get excited: even the currently booked reserves generate multi-billion-dollar numbers.

And this is before considering condensate uplift, oil upside, or basin-wide volumes.

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2. PSA-Adjusted Reality — Still Attractive

Tanzanian PSAs normally allocate around 55–60% of profit gas to government/TPDC. However, Aminex has publicly highlighted that favourable conditions have been agreed in the amended PSA (commercially sensitive and not disclosed in detail).

That means the actual government take could be less onerous than the typical model — but even on conservative assumptions:

• Base Case ~3.0p/share

• High Case ~4.7p/share

versus the current 1.95p share price.

That’s 50–140% upside — based only on what is currently recoverable.

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3. How Cost Recovery Works (Capex & Opex)

A common misconception is that capex and opex simply reduce Aminex’s share. Under Tanzania’s PSA, that isn’t true.

• Operators can recover up to 50% of gross annual revenues as “Cost Gas”.

• This applies to both capex and opex until all are fully repaid.

• Unrecovered balances roll forward each year until cleared.

Example:

Suppose capex is $250m, and annual revenues are $200m.

• Year 1: $100m recovered (50% of $200m)

• Year 2: another $100m recovered

• Year 3: $50m recovered → capex fully paid off

From then on, more of the revenue flows directly as profit gas.

Opex is treated the same way — recoverable under the 50% annual ceiling — which means operating costs are also reimbursed before the profit split.

👉 This is why cost recovery actually improves early cash flows to contractors and ensures long-term netbacks are higher than raw PSA splits suggest.

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4. The True Prize — Full Field Development

Everything so far is based only on ~0.4 Tcf net recoverable to Aminex. But the Ruvuma Basin has an estimated 16+ Tcf unrisked potential.

If proved up during full-field development (FFD):

• Aminex’s 25% stake = ~4 Tcf net

• That’s 10× larger than today’s discovered gas

• On the same multiples, the per-share potential could be 30p–47p turning into 300p–470p

And there’s more:

• Condensate uplift is expected to add ~15% additional value to gas sales.

• Oil shows at NT-2 strongly hint at a deeper Jurassic oil play, which could be targeted in later phases of development.

Long-term holders therefore anticipate not just steady gas monetisation, but a basin-scale growth story with multiple revenue streams.

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5. Investor Takeaway

• Current Recoverables: Already justify upside against today’s 1.95p share price.

• PSA Economics + Cost Recovery: Show Aminex can recoup capex/opex and still achieve strong netbacks.

• Full Field Potential: 16+ Tcf basin, condensate uplift, and possible oil add layers of transformational upside.

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📌 Closing Line for Investors:
“Even using conservative PSA terms, Aminex’s share of Ntorya already implies material upside. With cost recovery mechanisms improving early cash flow, condensate and oil adding extra value, and the 16+ Tcf basin potential still to be proved, the long-term case for Aminex remains one of scale and strategic importance.”

Check in tomorrow when we do the sums based on the full potential of 16+ Tcf

Beyond Ntorya: Unlocking the 16 Tcf Potential of the Ruvuma Basin

Why future drilling, deeper horizons, and even potential oil could transform Ntorya from a domestic gas play into a basin-scale energy hub.

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From Discovered to Potential

In our previous article we compared Aminex’s current discovered share of Ntorya gas with Cove Energy’s position in Mozambique back in 2012. That comparison was based on today’s proven gas only — roughly 0.4 Tcf net to Aminex.

But Ntorya sits within the wider Ruvuma Basin, a structure that independent assessments and operator mapping suggest could hold 16 Tcf or more of unrisked gas potential.

This is where the real long-term opportunity lies.

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Why Basin Potential Matters

Majors don’t just buy into what has already been booked. The Cove Energy bidding war showed that upside scale is what excites strategic buyers.

• Cove’s 8.5% stake equated to ~5–6 Tcf net when sold.

• If future drilling proves out Ruvuma’s 16+ Tcf potential, Aminex’s 25% stake could represent ~4 Tcf net.

• That’s on par with Cove’s net interest — but onshore, with lower development costs and direct access to a growing domestic market.

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The Jurassic Oil Angle

Ntorya’s story isn’t just about gas. During NT-2 drilling, oil traces were identified in the mud — evidence that deeper horizons could contain liquid hydrocarbons.

Originally, the Chikumbi-1 (CH-1) well was planned to target multiple stacked levels, including the deeper Jurassic formation. The revised location focuses only on gas, reflecting Tanzania’s immediate priority for domestic supply.

But in time, under Full Field Development (FFD), it is reasonable to expect that the Jurassic oil play will be revisited. If proven, this would add an entirely new dimension to Ntorya’s value.

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Tanzania’s Strategic Positioning

Tanzania continues to strengthen its role as an emerging energy hub. Recent announcements of cooperation agreements with Russian firms on oil and gas data-sharing highlight how the country is seeking to attract wider international partnerships.

While this has no direct bearing on Ntorya’s near-term gas project, it underlines that global players are watching the basin — a positive backdrop for future growth and potential transactions.

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The Bigger Picture for Investors

For Aminex shareholders, the significance is clear:

• Current discovered gas underpins near-term production and cash flow.

• Basin potential (16+ Tcf) could ultimately give Aminex’s 25% stake net exposure similar to what Cove Energy enjoyed at the time of its billion-pound sale.

• Oil upside offers an additional prize that is not priced into today’s valuations.

• Government and TPDC backing reduce financial risk on key infrastructure, keeping capital efficiency high.

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Closing Thought

Ntorya today is about gas, CPF construction, and pipeline delivery. But Ntorya tomorrow could be about much more: multi-Tcf basin growth and the possibility of oil.

That dual track of secure near-term gas revenue and longer-term basin-scale upside is what makes the Ruvuma story compelling.

Just as Cove Energy’s 2012 sale proved, when majors see that scale — they act.

From Cove to Ntorya: What a Billion-Pound Gas Deal Could Mean for Aminex

How the Cove Energy sale in 2012 set a precedent — and what a cautious comparison suggests for Ntorya today.

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Looking Back: The Cove Energy Deal

In 2012, Cove Energy became the centre of one of the oil and gas industry’s most closely watched bidding wars. The company held an 8.5% stake in Mozambique’s Ruvuma Offshore Area 1, where giant gas discoveries had been made.

Resource estimates at the time pointed to ~60–75 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of recoverable gas in Area 1, giving Cove a net interest of around 5–6 Tcf.

Both Shell and PTTEP competed fiercely for the prize. PTTEP eventually secured Cove with a £1.2bn ($1.9bn) offer, equal to about £1.8bn in today’s money.

The message was clear: when majors see scale and strategic importance, they are prepared to pay significant premiums.

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How Ntorya Compares Today

Tanzania’s Ntorya gas development is at a different stage and scale, but shares some important parallels:

• Onshore project with lower capital intensity, tied into the domestic grid.

• Gas Sales Agreement in place to supply 40 MMscf/d in the first year.

• Discovered resources of ~1.6–3.45 Tcf gas in place, equating to ~0.7–1.3 Tcf recoverable.

• Aminex 25% stake gives it ~0.4 Tcf net recoverable gas today.

• Pipeline funding covered by TPDC, reducing upfront capex risk for partners.

While smaller in absolute size than Ruvuma Offshore, Ntorya has the advantages of lower costs, faster route to market, and guaranteed domestic demand.

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What a Yardstick Comparison Suggests

Cove’s 5–6 Tcf net stake was bought for £1.2bn. Aminex’s current discovered stake is smaller, but even if you apply Cove-style transaction multiples cautiously, it still points toward valuations in the hundreds of millions of dollars.

That compares with Aminex’s present ~£80m market cap — suggesting that as production ramps and reserves grow, there is room for meaningful upside.

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Tanzania’s Strategic Context

Gas projects like Ntorya sit within a bigger picture. Tanzania is actively expanding its international energy partnerships, including a recent agreement to exchange data with Russian firms on oil and gas opportunities.

While this does not directly affect Ntorya’s early development, it underlines a key point: Tanzania’s energy sector is attracting global attention. That kind of strategic positioning can only strengthen investor confidence in the country’s long-term gas plans.

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Why This Is Just the Beginning

The comparison above is based only on discovered gas at Ntorya today. It does not include:

• The 16+ Tcf unrisked potential identified in the wider Ruvuma Basin.

• The possibility of oil in deeper Jurassic horizons, hinted at during NT-2 drilling.

These longer-term opportunities could transform Ntorya into a basin-scale energy story — just as Ruvuma Offshore did for Mozambique.

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Closing Thought

Cove Energy showed that majors will pay heavily for scale and strategic gas.

Ntorya is not Cove: it is onshore, domestic-focused, and nearer to revenue. But even on a cautious yardstick, Aminex’s stake already points to valuations above today’s market price.

And importantly, this is only the beginning. In our next article, we will explore the much larger upside potential — from multi-Tcf basin resources to the possibility of oil — and why Ntorya could ultimately prove far more significant than today’s numbers suggest.