Monday, 12 October 2020

Aminex PLC - Drewky's List

Congratulations to each and everyone of you, it's been a long time coming but hopefully you will all feel a little better tonight.  It was never in doubt for me although I admit my bottom was begining to twitch over the last few days.

Anyway Good luck to you all. Raise a glass and one day soon we may just well have that party! Here is the updated list and if it helps people to understand where we are then please share.

5 TCF GIIP - for Ruvuma - Ntorya 1.9TCF GIIP - 368 BCF 1C - 763 BCF 2C & 1162 BCF 3C

io commercialisation study est. $143m spend to recover 3/4 tcf based on gas price, $3.27/mcf is worth $25m to $35m cashflow per annum to Aminex from 2020 to 2049” "Fully covered"

FARM OUT - Now Completed as per RNS today 12th Oct 2020 (Confirmation in next days) APT have committed to spending a possible $110milion on the full field development of the Ruvuma project which includes a committed spending of $40million to Aminex. $5m cash & balance $35million paid as full carry up to 40MMscf/d at which point any unspent remainder will be paid in cash from gas profits.

APT acquire 50% of the Ruvuma project with Aminex retaining 25%. Solo Oil hold the remaining 25%

“APT will establish an early production system to achieve an accelerated first gas to a minimum a MINIMUM gross rate of 40MMscf/d by Qtr1 2022” representing full carry to minimum $10 to $12m p.a. cashflow “Not revenue – Free Cash” (date adjusted for delay)

"Much more expected! Not worth building a 30Km pipeline for just 40MMscf/d"

Adding the Solo share of costs $35m gives $140m total potential spend & brings full carry to profitability as per “io” projections

"Any further spending will be self-generated"

“Chikumbi-1 well pad is complete and hard road to site” – drill maybe this year most likely early Qtr1.  Hard road means rainy season will have limited effect.

“Multiple Targets - Gas - Oil at the lower level - Oil shows found down dip at previous drill”

“Planned around same time” APT will acquire 3D seismic data over 200km2 to optimise drilling targets”

Based on results of CH1 and 3D seismic APT will build a 33km pipeline to Mdimba gas plant to allow for maximum gas delivery “planned for 2019”

“Q4 2021? Monetisation to coincide with demand call” Date adjusted for 18-month delay

“Plan” Drill CH1 alongside 3D & back with further 3 to 4 drills (possibly Qtr3/4 2021 early 2022) Dates adjusted

Full field development is projected to 140mmcfd by mid-2020’s

Awaiting news on “Kiliwani remediation and potential income stream”

News also awaited on Possible further drill at Kiliwani South

Nyuni – Plans for 3D seismic

Competitors running maximum capacity and introduced compressors to keep up their pressures.  Demand forecast to soon outstrip supply!

**TPDC have announced feasibility study for gas pipeline to supply Uganda. UPDATE: AGREEMENT NOW SIGNED FOR CONSTRUCTION

Similar pipeline agreement to supply Kenya announced last week. (Aminex in pole position to supply)

**Pensions funds have been investing 20% more in Tanzanian business in recent years sparking further demand

**SADC nations agreed to develop plan to allow gas imports from Tanzania, Mozambique & Namibia