Beyond current reserves — how 16+ Tcf of gas, condensate uplift, and possible oil could multiply Aminex’s value many times over.
1. From Current to Future
So far, our valuation discussions have been based only on 0.4 Tcf net to Aminex, which is the currently recoverable gas booked at Ntorya. That alone already suggests strong upside to today’s share price.
But the real long-term prize is the Ruvuma Basin itself, where independent assessments point to 16+ Tcf unrisked potential.
If the mapped ~16+ Tcf unrisked potential were progressively proved up during Full Field Development, Aminex’s 25% stake could reach up to 4 Tcf net — ten times larger than today’s discovered share! Even partial success (say 25–50% of that potential) would still lift Aminex’s net exposure to roughly 1–2 Tcf, materially above today’s booked ~0.2–0.4 Tcf.
2. The Numbers — Scaling Up
Let’s use the same pricing assumptions as before:
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Base Case: $4.00/Mcf (domestic tariff)
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High Case: $6.10/Mcf (industrial tariff)
For 4 Tcf net to Aminex:
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Base Case → ~$16 billion gross sales
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High Case → ~$24.4 billion gross sales
Even after PSA splits (conservatively assuming 55–60% government take, though Aminex has agreed favourable terms), that still implies:
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$6.8–10.4 billion net to contractors
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$1.7–2.6 billion net to Aminex
Divide by 4.22 billion shares:
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Base Case ~31p/share
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High Case ~47p/share
That’s an order of magnitude higher than today’s 1.95p.
3. Condensate Uplift & Oil Potential
The basin story is not only about gas:
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Condensate uplift: Ntorya gas is expected to carry ~15% additional liquids value, providing a premium revenue stream on top of gas sales.
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Oil upside: Drilling at NT-2 encountered oil shows in the mud, suggesting a deeper Jurassic oil play exists. If confirmed in later phases, this could open a whole new layer of value.
4. Why Investors Care
Cove Energy’s billion-pound sale in 2012 showed that when majors see multi-Tcf scale, they pay heavily for it. Ntorya is onshore, with lower costs and direct access to Tanzania’s growing market — factors that make it even more attractive strategically.
Long-term holders believe much of the 16+ Tcf potential will be proved up, turning Ntorya from a domestic gas play into a basin-scale energy hub with regional importance.
5. The Investor Takeaway
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Current reserves justify near-term upside.
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Basin potential could multiply Aminex’s value 10× or more.
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Condensate uplift (+15%) and possible oil add further optionality.
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Tanzania’s strong government backing and infrastructure funding reduce project risk.
📌 Closing Line:
“The discovered reserves at Ntorya are already valuable — but the 16+ Tcf potential of the Ruvuma Basin is what could truly transform Aminex. With condensate and oil as additional prizes, the long-term upside is not just incremental, but potentially transformational.”