With Ntorya gas confirmed as the backbone of Tanzania’s $4.5B LNG vision, Aminex stands poised for a revaluation of historic proportions.
As Tanzania’s energy strategy pivots toward large-scale LNG production, Aminex PLC stands on the verge of a remarkable revaluation. With the newly announced Mtwara LNG project citing the Ntorya gas field as a primary supply source, and plans underway for 14 production wells over the next decade, the fundamentals have shifted dramatically.
Aminex’s carried interest through development, paired with favorable PSA terms, means it could capture as much as 40% of net revenues — far higher than traditional assumptions.
🔍 Projection Highlights
Under a 420 MMscfd production scenario and gas prices ranging from $3.50 to $5.50/MMBtu, share price projections rise sharply based on standard market multiples:
| Gas Price ($/MMBtu) | 10× Multiple | 15× Multiple | 20× Multiple |
|---|---|---|---|
| $3.50 | 42.92p | 64.39p | 85.85p |
| $4.50 | 55.19p | 82.78p | 110.37p |
| $5.50 | 67.46p | 101.18p | 134.91p |
This scenario aligns perfectly with the planned 2026 start of the LNG facility — right as Ntorya begins delivering gas. These projections exclude further upside from condensate sales, carbon credits, or direct-to-industry CNG supply.
In short: the market may be waking up late, but the rerating potential is real, visible, and rapidly approaching a potentially huge ROI.
So let us finish with an important question...
🔍 How Realistic Are 10×, 15×, or 20× Earnings Multiples for Aminex?
✅ 10× Multiple: Conservative but Reasonable
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Widely used for small-cap producers in emerging markets.
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Reflects risks like political environment, currency, and market liquidity.
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Yes, this is realistic, especially post–first gas when cash flow is proven.
✅ 15× Multiple: Aspirational but Justifiable
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Used when:
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Cash flow is secured via long-term contracts (LNG buyers, industrial offtake),
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The company has no debt or is carried (like Aminex),
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Visibility of production growth (14-well plan),
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Strategic partnerships (TPDC backing, state-supported infrastructure).
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Given Aminex’s clean balance sheet and strategic role, 15× is attainable once production ramps and sentiment builds.
⚠️ 20× Multiple: Stretch, but Not Impossible
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This assumes:
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Strong market rerating (likely during a retail/speculative surge),
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Scarcity value (few similar plays in region),
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Aggressive forecasts of expanded production or pricing upside (e.g., premium LNG contracts).
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Possible during inflection points or speculative runs (e.g., M&A interest, early buyout rumors), but not sustainable without consistent earnings delivery.
🧠 Rule of Thumb
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Pre-production: Market uses lower multiples or discounts heavily (uncertainty).
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Early production: 8–10× is realistic if cash is flowing and infrastructure is visible.
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Growth + strategic leverage (like LNG export): 12–15× becomes likely.
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Speculative peaks / retail excitement / M&A buzz: 20×+ can happen — but rarely lasts.