How the Cove Energy sale in 2012 set a precedent — and what a cautious comparison suggests for Ntorya today.
Looking Back: The Cove Energy Deal
In 2012, Cove Energy became the centre of one of the oil and gas industry’s most closely watched bidding wars. The company held an 8.5% stake in Mozambique’s Ruvuma Offshore Area 1, where giant gas discoveries had been made.
Resource estimates at the time pointed to ~60–75 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of recoverable gas in Area 1, giving Cove a net interest of around 5–6 Tcf.
Both Shell and PTTEP competed fiercely for the prize. PTTEP eventually secured Cove with a £1.2bn ($1.9bn) offer, equal to about £1.8bn in today’s money.
The message was clear: when majors see scale and strategic importance, they are prepared to pay significant premiums.
How Ntorya Compares Today
Tanzania’s Ntorya gas development is at a different stage and scale, but shares some important parallels:
-
Onshore project with lower capital intensity, tied into the domestic grid.
-
Gas Sales Agreement in place to supply 40 MMscf/d in the first year.
-
Discovered resources of ~1.6–3.45 Tcf gas in place, equating to ~0.7–1.3 Tcf recoverable.
-
Aminex 25% stake gives it ~0.4 Tcf net recoverable gas today.
-
Pipeline funding covered by TPDC, reducing upfront capex risk for partners.
While smaller in absolute size than Ruvuma Offshore, Ntorya has the advantages of lower costs, faster route to market, and guaranteed domestic demand.
What a Yardstick Comparison Suggests
Cove’s 5–6 Tcf net stake was bought for £1.2bn. Aminex’s current discovered stake is smaller, but even if you apply Cove-style transaction multiples cautiously, it still points toward valuations in the hundreds of millions of dollars.
That compares with Aminex’s present ~£80m market cap — suggesting that as production ramps and reserves grow, there is room for meaningful upside.
Tanzania’s Strategic Context
Gas projects like Ntorya sit within a bigger picture. Tanzania is actively expanding its international energy partnerships, including a recent agreement to exchange data with Russian firms on oil and gas opportunities.
While this does not directly affect Ntorya’s early development, it underlines a key point: Tanzania’s energy sector is attracting global attention. That kind of strategic positioning can only strengthen investor confidence in the country’s long-term gas plans.
Why This Is Just the Beginning
The comparison above is based only on discovered gas at Ntorya today. It does not include:
-
The 16+ Tcf unrisked potential identified in the wider Ruvuma Basin.
-
The possibility of oil in deeper Jurassic horizons, hinted at during NT-2 drilling.
These longer-term opportunities could transform Ntorya into a basin-scale energy story — just as Ruvuma Offshore did for Mozambique.
Closing Thought
Cove Energy showed that majors will pay heavily for scale and strategic gas.
Ntorya is not Cove: it is onshore, domestic-focused, and nearer to revenue. But even on a cautious yardstick, Aminex’s stake already points to valuations above today’s market price.
And importantly, this is only the beginning. In our next article, we will explore the much larger upside potential — from multi-Tcf basin resources to the possibility of oil — and why Ntorya could ultimately prove far more significant than today’s numbers suggest.