President’s official announcement signals a major acceleration in Tanzania’s domestic industrial gas demand — here’s why it matters for investors.
1. The Announcement: Straight from the Top
On her official Facebook account, Tanzania’s President has outlined an ambitious new natural gas initiative.
Frame-by-frame translation of the video text reveals:
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“TPDC opens doors of 2000+ industries to natural gas on the coast”
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“TPDC to build 102 km pipeline from Dar es Salaam to Chalinze”
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“2000+ industries to be established in Kwala Strategic Zone”
This is not speculative commentary. It’s a direct communication from the country’s highest political office, signalling official intent and policy direction.
2. Project Overview
The announcement contains three intertwined elements:
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102 km Gas Pipeline (Dar es Salaam → Chalinze)
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Extends the existing national gas grid north from Dar.
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Likely to connect with or support future Dar–Mombasa pipeline plans.
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Includes a branch to Kwala for industrial supply and export handling.
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Kwala Strategic Industrial Zone
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Envisioned as a major manufacturing hub with 2000+ industries.
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Positioned as a cornerstone of Tanzania’s industrialisation and export strategy.
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Integration with Regional Energy Trade
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Although not stated in the video, previous planning documents have referenced the Dar–Mombasa subsea pipeline (with connections to Tanga and Zanzibar), indicating regional export ambitions.
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3. Why This Matters: The Demand Shock
The scale of ambition is enormous.
For context:
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In August 2024, TPDC reported only 56 industries connected to the national gas system.
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Moving from 56 to 2000+ represents a 35-fold increase in industrial connections.
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Even at a conservative 1 MMscf/d per industry, this would imply 2000 MMscf/d of new industrial demand — multiples of Tanzania’s current total production.
4. Current Supply Reality
Existing Production
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Songo Songo: Small offshore field; mature and declining.
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Mnazi Bay: Producing but with limited reserves and long-standing commercial disputes.
Offshore LNG Megaprojects
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Shell and Equinor-led developments remain in negotiation stage.
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First gas unlikely before the early 2030s.
Implication
The government’s own timelines for industrial build-out mean it cannot wait for offshore LNG.
It must rely on near-term, scalable, onshore resources — and that puts Ntorya in the spotlight.
5. Ntorya’s Strategic Position
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Resource scale: Independent estimates show Ntorya’s gas in place sufficient for multi-decade supply at hundreds of MMscf/d.
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Infrastructure: Pipeline to Madimba under EPC contract, with CNPC leading — first gas expected mid-2026.
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Commercial terms: Aminex fully carried to ~$40m net, with a more favourable PSA than industry norms.
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Market linkage: Named as primary supplier for the Mtwara LNG project (400 → 1,200 MMscf/d).
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Ramp-up plan: 14-well programme targeting 420 MMscf/d capacity.
6. From Dar to Kwala: The Corridor Effect
The new Dar–Chalinze pipeline creates an industrial corridor:
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Dar: Tanzania’s commercial hub.
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Chalinze: Strategic road and rail junction.
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Kwala: New manufacturing and logistics hub.
This corridor could act as a gas demand anchor in the same way industrial zones drive pipeline economics in other countries. Once in place, the network can:
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Supply large anchor customers.
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Spur smaller industrial users along the route.
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Serve as a feed point for regional exports to Kenya and beyond.
7. Investment Implications
Short-Term
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The President’s announcement provides political cover for accelerating infrastructure approvals.
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Market sentiment could improve as investors see government-backed demand pipelines emerging in parallel with Ntorya’s development.
Medium-Term
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Demand growth in the Kwala zone could outpace initial Ntorya production, giving Aminex and its partners strong pricing leverage — especially for industrial sales (which Orca’s 2024 data shows average $8.45/MMBtu).
Long-Term
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If the 2000+ industry target is even half-met, Tanzania will require multiple hundreds of MMscf/d of new supply, creating room for both domestic sales and LNG exports.
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Ntorya could transition from being one supplier among many to being the critical swing producer in the domestic market.
8. Risks and Realism
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Execution risk: Government timelines for industrial build-out have historically slipped.
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Funding: The 69.6 billion shilling allocation for the 102 km pipeline (~$26.5M USD) covers construction but not necessarily all ancillary infrastructure.
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Demand pacing: While 2000+ industries is the target, actual connections will likely ramp gradually.
However, policy intent is clear, and the infrastructure moves are real enough to warrant investor attention now.
9. Bottom Line for Investors
The President’s public endorsement of a 102 km coastal pipeline and a 2000+ industry Kwala zone signals a new phase in Tanzania’s energy and industrial policy.
For Aminex and Ntorya, it means:
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Locked-in demand growth that fits perfectly with Ntorya’s production timeline.
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Pricing upside from industrial sales into a market with tightening supply.
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Strategic positioning as the only near-term, large-scale onshore resource capable of meeting these targets.
At today’s sub-2p share price, the market is valuing Aminex as if these policy shifts didn’t exist. If execution follows even half of the announced plan, that disconnect won’t last.