Breaking down Ntorya’s discovered resources, gas pricing, and billions in potential sales revenue.
Asking the Question
In our first two articles we compared Ntorya’s discovered gas with Cove Energy’s 2012 sale, and then explored the much larger basin upside. But let’s pause on a simpler, practical question:
“If Aminex’s share of Ntorya is ~0.4 Tcf recoverable, what could that actually be worth in revenue?”
The Price of Tanzanian Gas
Gas in Tanzania is not sold at global LNG prices but at regulated domestic tariffs. Still, the market is attractive because:
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The Gas Sales Agreement (GSA) for Ntorya is already signed.
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Demand is guaranteed: gas will feed directly into power plants and industrial users via the Madimba plant and national grid.
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Industrial tariffs have been reported around $6.10 per thousand cubic feet (Mcf) — reflecting a blend of state-regulated pricing and the premium paid by industry.
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For sensitivity, we can also consider a lower $4.00/Mcf base case (a conservative benchmark for domestic gas).
(Orca Exploration’s 2023 results showed average realised prices above $6, which reinforces the higher case as realistic.)
Step 1: How Much Gas is 0.4 Tcf?
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1 Tcf = 1,000,000,000,000 cubic feet.
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0.4 Tcf = 400,000,000,000 cubic feet.
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In units of 1,000 cubic feet (Mcf):
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400,000,000,000 ÷ 1,000 = 400,000,000 Mcf.
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Step 2: Apply the Prices
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Base Case $4.00/Mcf
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400,000,000 Mcf × $4.00 = $1.6 billion gross revenue.
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Higher Case $6.10/Mcf
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400,000,000 Mcf × $6.10 = $2.44 billion gross revenue.
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So even Aminex’s 0.4 Tcf net discovered share alone could generate between $1.6bn and $2.4bn gross sales over the life of production.
Step 3: What Does That Mean for Aminex?
Of course, gross sales are not the same as free cash:
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Tanzania’s Production Sharing Agreement (PSA) splits revenue with the government.
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Capex and opex must be recovered.
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Timings matter — revenues arrive over many years, not in one lump sum.
But the exercise shows something important:
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Even using conservative domestic pricing, Aminex’s discovered gas represents a multi-billion-dollar gross revenue stream.
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Against a current market cap of ~£80m (≈$100m), that scale looks highly attractive.
Step 4: The Benchmark
To put this in context:
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Orca Exploration reported average realised gas prices of over $6/Mcf last year.
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That aligns neatly with our $6.10/Mcf higher case.
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It reinforces that Ntorya’s gas, once flowing, is likely to achieve pricing toward the higher end of our range.
Closing Thought
Asking “what is 0.4 Tcf worth?” shows why Ntorya is such a strategic asset. Even before considering the 16+ Tcf upside in the wider basin or the possibility of oil, Aminex’s discovered gas alone equates to billions of dollars in potential sales.
And with TPDC funding the pipeline and infrastructure in place, this value is not a theoretical number — it is linked directly to a contracted market hungry for supply.
For investors, that underlines the simple truth: Ntorya is underpinned by real demand, real contracts, and real scale — and the upside could be far greater.