Friday, 12 September 2025

Aminex Momentum: Seize the Entry After the small Pullback

Project Catalysts & Government Backing Align — Here’s Why Aminex Looks Poised for Upside



Over the past few weeks, Aminex (AEX) has shown strong upward price momentum, followed by a modest pullback in the last two days  — exactly the kind of pattern value‑hunters like. This gives new and existing investors a chance: to buy in at a more favourable level while major project drivers remain intact.


What We Know: Recent Developments & Catalysts

  1. Pipeline & Field Project Milestones Moving Ahead

    • The pipeline from the Ntorya gas field to the Madimba processing plant is now advancing to equipment procurement. Bulk of the pipe & materials are being purchased.

    • Construction equipment mobilisation begins in This Month Groundwork and pipe‑laying will follow in January 2026, with expected completion by July 2026.

  2. Drilling & Well Workover Moves Forward

    • The regulatory authority (PURA) has approved the tender strategy for both drilling the Chikumbi‑1 well and doing a workover on the Ntorya‑1 well and EOI deadline has been passed for those wishing to bid.

    • These well operations will add to production capacity once the pipeline is live.

  3. Aminex’s Financial Position & Upside Exposure

    • Aminex holds a 25% non‑operated interest in the Ntorya Development Licence area. It is carried through the ongoing work programme up to $140 million in gross expenditure (i.e. $35 million net to Aminex) — meaning it doesn’t have to contribute capital until certain milestones / revenue commencement.

    • Several upcoming value inflection triggers have been identified: awarding of well drilling contracts, pipeline completion, first gas production, and revenue streams.

  4. Price Action & Sentiment

    • The share price has climbed significantly over recent months. As of early September 2025, it’s trading around 2.05p to 2.18p (GBX) per share, near its 52‑week high (≈ 2.20p), after recovering from lows of around 0.82‑0.90p.

    • Recent pullback in the last couple of days is modest and fairly typical following strong moves — not necessarily a warning sign so much as a potential entry window.


Why This Pullback Could Mean Opportunity

  • Risk has been haircut: Many of the big uncertainties — regulators, land, pipeline route, environmental & government permits — have been resolved meanwhile the project transitions into procurement and construction, risk from “will it happen?” shifts toward “how smoothly will it be executed?”

  • Low upfront cost for Aminex: Because Aminex is carried, its capital exposure until first gas is limited. If the pipeline & field development go to plan, the upside could be high relative to its risk.

  • Upcoming catalysts are visible: Investors can mark key dates (equipment mobilisation, pipeline completion, start of gas flows) in their calendars. Each of those is likely to reinforce sentiment & possibly trigger revaluations.

  • Valuation gap: Trading near highs but still seeming undervalued if one assumes successful execution & first gas. The pullback allows entry before some of the big milestones are “baked in” by the market.


Conclusion: Is Now a Good Entry Point?

Yes — for investors who believe in the project’s execution, government support, and energy demand in Tanzania. The recent pullback provides a potentially favourable entry point. The upside risk/reward looks better now than when many of the early uncertainties still loomed large.