Tuesday, 9 September 2025

From Seismic to Supply: The Ntorya–Madimba Gas Pipeline

A Chronological Overview: Aminex Pipeline (Ntorya–Madimba Project)

Here's a detailed, timeline-based summary of the developments surrounding the Aminex-backed Ntorya–Madimba gas pipeline:

1. Planning & Seismic Survey (Early 2025)

  • In early 2025, Aminex and its operator ARA Petroleum Tanzania (APT) formulated an updated Field Development Plan (FDP) for Ntorya, based on results from a comprehensive 3D seismic campaign. This informed a phased development strategy to scale production from ~60 MMscf/d up to 280 MMscf/d through additional drilling over time.

  • In October 2024, TPDC issued a restrictive tender for engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) services for the pipeline.

2. Strategic Agreements & Pipeline Planning (2024)

  • Aminex secured a gas sales agreement, and the Development License award paved a clearer path toward monetization.

  • The Ntorya-to-Madimba pipeline was positioned as a monetization trigger—a vital channel to realise commercial production.

3. Engineering & Construction Preparations (First Half of 2025)

  • On 3 July 2025, TPDC awarded the EPC contract to a consortium of China Petroleum Pipeline Engineering Co., Ltd. (CPP) and China Petroleum Technology & Development Corporation (CPTDC).

  • By 14 July 2025, TPDC formally handed over the project site to the contractors, enabling them to start site investigations, detailed engineering, and design.

4. Construction Start & Timeline Confirmation (Mid 2025)

  • In July 2025, Aminex confirmed that pipeline construction would commence that same month, aiming for completion by July 2026. The Ntorya‑2 well would begin supplying gas once the pipeline was operational.

  • A corporate presentation highlighted these milestones along with strategic contractors being in place, reinforcing the pipeline’s imminent delivery and its integration with national gas infrastructure.

5. Drilling & Tendering Activities (Mid to Late 2025)

  • Aminex/ARA presented a tender strategy to PURA for drilling the Chikumbi‑1 (CH‑1) well and executing the Ntorya‑1 (NT‑1) workover. PURA approved this, and APT planned to issue tenders by mid‑August 2025.  The ten day time limit for EOI's ended over the weekend so it can be assumed they are now doing their due diligence on the interested parties.

6. Operations Update & Mobilization (August 2025)

  • As of 27 August 2025, TPDC informed the joint venture that:

    • Pipeline procurement had begun.

    • Equipment mobilization would start in September 2025.

    • Groundwork and pipe laying were scheduled from January 2026, with completion by July 2026.

    • Discussions on condensate processing and storage were underway.

    • PURA had approved the expedited tender process for drilling and well services.


Summary Table: Timeline Highlights

Time PeriodMilestone / Development
Early 2025Seismic data informs updated drilling plan. FDP submitted.
October 2024–2025Pipeline tender and gas sales agreements facilitate project commercialization.
3 July 2025EPC contract awarded to CPP & CPTDC.
14 July 2025Project site handed over to contractors.
July 2025Construction begins; target completion by July 2026.
Mid‑August 2025Drilling tender approval and issuance underway.
27 August 2025Procurement, mobilization, pipe laying schedule and condensate plans announced.

What's Next? Looking Ahead

  • January to July 2026: Ground breaking phased construction, leading to completion and commissioning of the pipeline.

  • Shortly after pipeline commissioning: Chikumbi‑1 drilling and Ntorya‑1 workover, with Ntorya‑2 revenue poised to start.

  • Mid‑2026 and beyond: First gas deliveries to Tanzania’s domestic market, gradually expanding towards full-scale production (~280 MMscf/d) and condensate integration.

Monday, 8 September 2025

Ntorya Gas: The Hidden Backbone of Tanzania’s Energy Revolution

Why Aminex’s 25% stake in a $5.3B asset is massively undervalued—and essential to powering East Africa’s future.

Tanzania is at a crossroads of transformational change. With one of the fastest-growing populations in Africa, a government-led industrialisation push, and mounting regional energy demand, the country is setting the stage to become East Africa’s energy hub.

At the heart of this vision is the Ntorya Gas Field—a resource-rich onshore gas field discovered by Aminex plc (AEX: AIM) now in partnership with operator ARA Petroleum. While most headlines focus on offshore LNG megaprojects, Ntorya is quietly becoming the real enabler of near-term, high-impact development across power generation, clean cooking, and industrial expansion.


๐Ÿ›ข️ What Is Ntorya and Why Is It Crucial?

Located in Tanzania’s Ruvuma Basin, Ntorya is a discovered and appraised onshore gas resource with independently certified 2C resources of 3.45 TCF (trillion cubic feet). It is strategically located close to existing infrastructure:

  • ~35 km to the Madimba Gas Processing Plant (connected to the national grid)

  • Within reach of industrial zones, power plants, and LPG bottling networks

  • Tied to the government’s pipeline construction timeline, now under execution

In July 2025, TPDC awarded a contract to Chinese EPC firms for the Ntorya–Madimba pipeline, aiming for first gas by July 2026.


๐Ÿš€ The Demand Side: Powering Growth and Decarbonisation

1. Electricity for a Growing Nation

Tanzania’s demand for electricity is surging, driven by:

  • Industrial expansion (Kwala, Bagamoyo, Mtwara, and 5 new SEZs)

  • Urbanisation and regional electrification (Kenya, Uganda, Zambia interconnectors)

  • Replacement of expensive diesel generators in off-grid and peri-urban areas

Gas-fired power is a vital component of Tanzania’s Least Cost Power Development Plan, offering a flexible, cleaner alternative to coal and hydro. Ntorya’s gas could support:

  • Mtwara’s planned 600 MW gas-fired plant

  • Power exports via the Zambia–Tanzania interconnector (commissioning by 2026)

  • Stability for the growing SEZ clusters

2. Clean Cooking Revolution

Over 85% of Tanzanians still cook with wood or charcoal, causing:

  • Massive deforestation (est. 400,000 hectares lost annually)

  • Respiratory diseases linked to indoor air pollution

  • Lost productivity and gender-based labour burdens

The government’s Clean Cooking Energy Strategy 2024–2034 aims for 80% adoption of clean cooking solutions by 2034, with LPG and piped gas forming the backbone.

Ntorya—via processing at Madimba and planned bottling/distribution networks—could become a critical feedstock for LPG, accelerating this health and environmental imperative.


๐Ÿญ Ntorya + Infrastructure: Perfect Alignment

The Tanzanian government is making record infrastructure investments, many of which require reliable gas supply:

Infrastructure ProjectHow Ntorya Supports It
Kwala Industrial Zone (2,000+ industries)Pipeline link via Chalinze branch
Dar–Chalinze 102 km pipelineExtends gas grid northward
Mtwara Corridor industrial sitesDirect proximity; gas-fuelled plants
Bagamoyo port/SEZ (700+ industries)Industrial and export energy needs
5 new SEZs (TISEZA, Aug 2025)Manufacturing zones require consistent gas/power

This infrastructure is not just domestic—Tanzania is now deeply tied into regional energy trade, with long-term plans for a Dar–Mombasa gas pipeline, power interconnectors to Uganda and Zambia, and LPG exports to neighbouring countries.


๐Ÿ’ฐ Aminex’s Ntorya Stake: A Multi-Billion-Dollar Revenue Stream in the Making

๐Ÿ“ฆ Step 1: How Much Gas is 0.4 Tcf?

  • 1 Tcf = 1 trillion cubic feet

  • Aminex’s net discovered share: 0.4 Tcf

  • In Mcf (thousand cubic feet):
    0.4 Tcf = 400 million Mcf


๐Ÿ’ต Step 2: Apply Realistic Price Scenarios

Price ScenarioMcf ValueGross Revenue
Base Case$4.00/Mcf$1.6 billion
Higher Case$6.10/Mcf$2.44 billion

Even under conservative pricing, Aminex’s gas could generate $1.6 billion in gross sales over its production life — rising to $2.44 billion using industry tariff averages.

This isn’t speculative: the Gas Sales Agreement (GSA) is signed, and Ntorya’s gas is destined for guaranteed demand through:

  • Madimba Gas Plant

  • Tanzania’s national grid

  • Industrial zones like Kwala and Bagamoyo


๐Ÿงพ Step 3: What Does That Mean for Aminex?

While gross sales ≠ net profits, the exercise highlights one thing:

This is a multi-billion-dollar gross revenue stream backed by infrastructure, policy, and market need.

Factors such as:

  • The Production Sharing Agreement (55–60% government take),

  • Ongoing cost recovery (capex/opex), and

  • Multi-year revenue timing

…will shape exact returns. But even adjusted for PSA terms, Aminex’s upside remains enormous.


๐Ÿ“Š Step 4: How It Compares

For context:

  • Orca Exploration (operating in Tanzania’s Songo Songo field) averaged over $6/Mcf in 2023 gas sales.

  • This validates the $6.10/Mcf industrial pricing used in our high case.

So Ntorya gas is likely to achieve higher-tier pricing, not just the base GSA rate — making the higher revenue scenario entirely realistic.


๐Ÿ” Conclusion: Massive Value, Still Mispriced

With a current market cap around $100 million, Aminex is trading at:

  • ~6% of potential gross revenue at base pricing

  • ~4% of potential gross revenue at industrial pricing

This level of undervaluation—on a de-risked, demand-backed, GSA-approved, development-ready gas asset—is extraordinary.

As the Ntorya–Madimba pipeline moves toward first gas in 2026, investors have a rare asymmetric opportunity to enter a project with scale, timing, and strategic alignment fully in place.


๐ŸŒ ESG & Energy Transition: A Stronger Investment Narrative

Ntorya is not just a resource—it’s a climate-aligned, impact-driven energy project. It:

  • Displaces biomass and diesel with cleaner, reliable gas

  • Supports health, education, and gender equity through clean cooking

  • Boosts Tanzania’s ability to trade energy regionally and grow sustainably

For impact funds, ESG-aligned investors, or frontier energy portfolios, Ntorya offers high upside with positive social and environmental impact.


๐Ÿง  Final Thoughts: Ntorya Is Not Optional—It’s Foundational

Tanzania’s bold industrial, electrification, and clean cooking goals depend on gas that’s already discovered, already financed, and already being built.

Ntorya is:

  • Strategically located

  • Nationally prioritized

  • Technically de-risked

  • Financially undervalued

As first gas approaches in 2026, and pipeline works begin in earnest, the clock is ticking on this unique asymmetrical opportunity. For investors willing to look beyond the offshore LNG fog, Ntorya and Aminex offer clarity, impact, and returns.

Friday, 5 September 2025

Aminex Gears Up for 2026 Gas Production with Pipeline, CPF & Drilling Momentum

Key infrastructure moves from planning to action as Ntorya gas strategy accelerates

Aminex PLC is entering a transformational phase in Tanzania’s Ruvuma Basin as construction and drilling preparations advance toward first gas in 2026. With the full backing of the Tanzanian government and TPDC, the Ntorya development is finally gathering visible momentum—offering long-term value upside for shareholders.

๐Ÿšง Pipeline & CPF: A 30 km Link to Market

The 30-kilometre gas pipeline connecting Ntorya to the Madimba Gas Plant has been awarded to industry heavyweight China Petroleum Pipeline Engineering (CPPE), with equipment from CPTDC.

  • Mobilisation begins: September 2025

  • Pipelaying window: January to July 2026

  • Project completion: By July 2026

The Central Processing Facility (CPF) will be built at Ntorya, ensuring direct feed into Tanzania’s national gas infrastructure.

For context: a 30 km pipeline is modest in scale for CPPE, which routinely handles 500+ km builds globally. This adds further confidence in timeline discipline.

๐Ÿ› ️ Drilling Plans: Rig Options & Timeline

Following PURA’s approval of the rig tender strategy in August 2025, the operator ARA Petroleum has already issued Expressions of Interest (EOIs)—ahead of schedule.

Candidate rigs include:

  • Exalo Rig 202 – active in Zimbabwe; likely available late 2025 after Invictus campaign

  • PR Marriott rigs – currently in Kenya

  • Nabors rigs – in Uganda

  • ARA’s own Oman-based fleet – with three active rigs that could redeploy within 3+ months

๐ŸŽฏ Drill Timing:

  • Optimistic spud: December 2025

  • More likely: January–February 2026

๐ŸŒ Government Support + Investor Upside

With a 25-year Development Licence in hand and the full cooperation of Tanzanian authorities, Aminex stands to benefit from:

  • Favourable PSA terms

  • 50% annual cost recovery from production revenues

  • Strong local partnerships through TPDC and regional contractors

๐Ÿ“Š Resource Potential: Strong Base, Big Upside

  • Certified 2C net reserves: ~0.4 Tcf

  • Full basin potential: Estimated 16+ Tcf, with up to 4 Tcf net to Aminex

  • Condensate uplift: Up to +15% revenue enhancement

  • Oil shows at Ntorya-2 add further exploratory upside

๐ŸŽจ What’s Next on the Blog

Expect regular updates with simplified graphics, clean infographics, and clear investor messaging. We'll track:

  • Pipeline milestones

  • CPF progress

  • Drilling mobilisation

  • Project economics and PSA mechanics


๐Ÿ”Ž Bottom Line

The pieces are falling into place. Aminex is closer than ever to unlocking substantial long-term value at Ntorya—and 2026 is shaping up to be the inflection point.

Stay tuned for more updates as we track every move toward first gas.

Thursday, 4 September 2025

Aminex: Rig Strategy and Options for the Ntorya Drilling Campaign

From regional workhorses to ARA’s own fleet, what rigs could deliver the next phase at Ntorya — and when might they spud?


1. Why the Rig Choice Matters

With pipeline construction equipment due to mobilise this month and the Ntorya gas field poised for its next stage of development, investors are rightly asking: when will the next well be drilled, and which rig will do the job?

The answer lies in the rig tender now under way. PURA has approved the strategy, ARA has invited expressions of interest, and a range of options are now on the table.


2. Regional Candidates

Several rigs already in East and Southern Africa meet the technical requirements for CH-1 and the NT-1 workover (~1,000–1,500 HP, ~3–4 km depth capability):

  • Exalo Rig 202 – currently warm-stacked with Invictus Energy in Zimbabwe. Its two-year extension (signed Dec 2023) suggests availability by late 2025, aligning neatly with Ntorya’s timeline.

  • PR Marriott rigs (Kenya) – long track record with Tullow and active in East Africa. A credible bidder with mobilisation experience across the region.

  • Nabors rigs (Uganda) – working with Total and CNOOC on Tilenga/Kingfisher, these are world-class units that may rotate out as Ugandan projects mature.

  • Chinese rigs – subsidiaries of Sinopec and CNPC often respond to tenders in the region; they can field suitable units if scheduled availability matches

It’s also possible that a Chinese drilling rig could ultimately be selected. With CPPE and CPTDC already trusted to deliver the pipeline, and China’s wider history of energy infrastructure in Tanzania, investors may wonder if this confidence extends to drilling services too. While the pipeline award does not automatically link to a drilling contract — these are separate scopes of work — the idea of a CNPC or Sinopec drilling unit entering the tender is credible. If it happened, it would underline Tanzania’s comfort with Chinese delivery capacity, while still leaving room for strong competition from Exalo, PR Marriott, Nabors, and others.

3. The ARA Oman Option

ARA Petroleum also operates a fleet of rigs in Oman. In May 2025 they were running three concurrent rigs in Block 44. If Omani operations wind down, ARA could redeploy one of their rigs to Tanzania.

  • Pros: Full operator control, proven rigs, known crews.

  • Cons: Requires demobilisation, shipping to Mtwara, and land transport inland — at least 3+ months lead time.

While speculative, this option demonstrates ARA’s flexibility if regional rigs cannot be secured in time.


4. Timing — December or Early 2026?

  • December 2025: Possible if a regional rig (e.g., Exalo or Marriott) is freed quickly and mobilisation is fast-tracked.

  • January–February 2026: More realistic if tendering, contracting, and mobilisation take their usual course.

  • Alignment with pipeline: Either way, spudding before or during the early pipeline construction phase ensures CH-1 and NT-1 can contribute volumes once first gas flows in mid-2026.


5. Why Investors Should Be Confident

  • Multiple credible rig pools exist within East and Southern Africa.

  • ARA has its own fleet as a fall-back option, underscoring their commitment.

  • Timelines align with pipeline completion in July 2026 — ensuring gas can move to market.


๐Ÿ“Œ Closing Line:
“The next well at Ntorya is not a question of if, but when. With regional rigs available, ARA’s Omani fleet as a fall-back, and Tanzania’s regulators moving the process forward, the spud window is now clearly in sight — whether as early as December 2025 or into early 2026.”

Wednesday, 3 September 2025

Aminex Spotlight: Why Our Ntorya–Madimba Pipeline Contractors Are Among the Best

Why China Petroleum Pipeline Engineering and China Petroleum Technology & Development are the right partners to deliver Ntorya’s critical link to the grid—on time, safely, and at scale.


1. Introducing the Contractors

China Petroleum Pipeline Engineering Co. Ltd. (CPP/CPPE)

  • A CNPC subsidiary and one of the world’s leading pipeline builders

  • Track record includes 130,000 km of onshore pipelines, 500 km offshore, storage terminals, and underground facilities across 50+ countries

  • Key landmark projects: the $3.3bn Habshan–Fujairah oil pipeline in UAE (operational by 2012); flagship West-East Gas Pipeline and Myanmar–China Pipeline

  • Awarded national quality prizes (e.g., 2016 Luban Award for Myanmar pipeline)

China Petroleum Technology & Development Corp. (CPTDC)

  • Another CNPC affiliate, CPTDC focuses on technical services and equipment for oil & gas operations.

  • Globally active with 53 offices, supplying drilling rigs, workover rigs, and over 5,000 km of pipeline equipment

  • Manages full lifecycle support—from procurement to commissioning and after-sales, with ISO/API certifications


2. Reliability & Capacity to Execute Multiple Projects

  • CPP has consistently executed mega-scale pipelines globally, often running projects simultaneously across continents.

  • By contrast, the Ntorya pipeline is a homogenous 30 km project, a minor undertaking in their portfolio—it’s operationally compact and fast-trackable.

  • Their active project management systems, deep regional experience, and ability to mobilise mid-sized dedicated teams make them well equipped for this assignment.


3. Understanding the Ground Realities—What They’ll Overcome in Tanzania

  • Terrain includes local farmland and minor water crossings. Similar terrain—river crossings, wetlands and rural landscapes—have been part of CPP’s projects like the China–Russia East Route Gas Pipeline crossing the Yangtze ~70 m underground

  • Challenges such as material logistics, handling monsoon weather, and community sensitivity are well within CPP and CPTDC’s wheelhouse due to previous African, Middle East, and Asian projects.

  • They’ll leverage local contracts, operate under strong HSE protocols, and deploy their advanced welding and inspection tools, including their self-developed “Four Full-Capacity” systems.


4. What This Means for Aminex Investors

  • Project Scope: 30 km, straight-line, within-known terrain → straightforward logistics.

  • Schedule Confidence: Mobilisation starts Sept ’25; pipelaying Jan–July ’26, which is short, manageable, and fits industry norms for this scale.

  • Risk Mitigation: Contractor selection gives confidence—both in building competence and experience across simultaneous large-scale projects.

  • Execution Edge: CPTDC ensures that technical challenges—from heavy lifting to commissioning—are matched with responsive support and global-standard quality.


Summary Table

AttributeCPP / CPTDC Strength
Size & ScopeGlobal-scale experts, this project is small-scale
Delivery Track RecordMajor pipelines delivered ahead of schedule
Local ConditionsTropical, flooding, and rural logistics familiar territory
Dual Project DeliveryEACOP and Ntorya pipelines overlap timelines; CPP handles both
Technical DepthAdvanced welding, inspection, and commissioning tools

Bottom line:
Selecting CPP and CPTDC brings elite-level pipeline execution capability to Ntorya’s infrastructure. What may appear as modest work is well within their capability—and using these trusted contractors significantly lowers delivery risk for investors.

Tuesday, 2 September 2025

Aminex: The Ruvuma Basin Potential That Could Transform Ntorya

Beyond current reserves — how 16+ Tcf of gas, condensate uplift, and possible oil could multiply Aminex’s value many times over.


1. From Current to Future

So far, our valuation discussions have been based only on 0.4 Tcf net to Aminex, which is the currently recoverable gas booked at Ntorya. That alone already suggests strong upside to today’s share price.

But the real long-term prize is the Ruvuma Basin itself, where independent assessments point to 16+ Tcf unrisked potential.

If the mapped ~16+ Tcf unrisked potential were progressively proved up during Full Field Development, Aminex’s 25% stake could reach up to 4 Tcf net — ten times larger than today’s discovered share! Even partial success (say 25–50% of that potential) would still lift Aminex’s net exposure to roughly 1–2 Tcf, materially above today’s booked ~0.2–0.4 Tcf.


2. The Numbers — Scaling Up

Let’s use the same pricing assumptions as before:

  • Base Case: $4.00/Mcf (domestic tariff)

  • High Case: $6.10/Mcf (industrial tariff)

For 4 Tcf net to Aminex:

  • Base Case → ~$16 billion gross sales

  • High Case → ~$24.4 billion gross sales

Even after PSA splits (conservatively assuming 55–60% government take, though Aminex has agreed favourable terms), that still implies:

  • $6.8–10.4 billion net to contractors

  • $1.7–2.6 billion net to Aminex

Divide by 4.22 billion shares:

  • Base Case ~31p/share

  • High Case ~47p/share

That’s an order of magnitude higher than today’s 1.95p.


3. Condensate Uplift & Oil Potential

The basin story is not only about gas:

  • Condensate uplift: Ntorya gas is expected to carry ~15% additional liquids value, providing a premium revenue stream on top of gas sales.

  • Oil upside: Drilling at NT-2 encountered oil shows in the mud, suggesting a deeper Jurassic oil play exists. If confirmed in later phases, this could open a whole new layer of value.


4. Why Investors Care

Cove Energy’s billion-pound sale in 2012 showed that when majors see multi-Tcf scale, they pay heavily for it. Ntorya is onshore, with lower costs and direct access to Tanzania’s growing market — factors that make it even more attractive strategically.

Long-term holders believe much of the 16+ Tcf potential will be proved up, turning Ntorya from a domestic gas play into a basin-scale energy hub with regional importance.


5. The Investor Takeaway

  • Current reserves justify near-term upside.

  • Basin potential could multiply Aminex’s value 10× or more.

  • Condensate uplift (+15%) and possible oil add further optionality.

  • Tanzania’s strong government backing and infrastructure funding reduce project risk.


๐Ÿ“Œ Closing Line:
“The discovered reserves at Ntorya are already valuable — but the 16+ Tcf potential of the Ruvuma Basin is what could truly transform Aminex. With condensate and oil as additional prizes, the long-term upside is not just incremental, but potentially transformational.”

Monday, 1 September 2025

Aminex: What Ntorya’s Gas Could Mean for the Share Price

From current reserves to full-field potential, a closer look at revenues, PSA terms, and cost recovery.


1. Headline Upside — The Big Picture

Aminex’s share of currently recoverable Ntorya gas is estimated at ~0.4 Tcf.

Using a base case domestic tariff of $4.00/Mcf and a higher industrial price of $6.10/Mcf, the gross lifetime sales values come to:

  • Base Case $4.00 → $1.6 billion

  • High Case $6.10 → $2.44 billion

With 4.22 billion shares in issue, that equates to headline values of:

  • 28.8p per share (base)

  • 43.9p per share (high)

๐Ÿ‘‰ These are gross, pre-PSA figures, but they show why investors get excited: even the currently booked reserves generate multi-billion-dollar numbers.

And this is before considering condensate uplift, oil upside, or basin-wide volumes.


2. PSA-Adjusted Reality — Still Attractive

Tanzanian PSAs normally allocate around 55–60% of profit gas to government/TPDC. However, Aminex has publicly highlighted that favourable conditions have been agreed in the amended PSA (commercially sensitive and not disclosed in detail).

That means the actual government take could be less onerous than the typical model — but even on conservative assumptions:

  • Base Case ~3.0p/share

  • High Case ~4.7p/share

versus the current 1.95p share price.

That’s 50–140% upside — based only on what is currently recoverable.


3. How Cost Recovery Works (Capex & Opex)

A common misconception is that capex and opex simply reduce Aminex’s share. Under Tanzania’s PSA, that isn’t true.

  • Operators can recover up to 50% of gross annual revenues as “Cost Gas”.

  • This applies to both capex and opex until all are fully repaid.

  • Unrecovered balances roll forward each year until cleared.

Example:

Suppose capex is $250m, and annual revenues are $200m.

  • Year 1: $100m recovered (50% of $200m)

  • Year 2: another $100m recovered

  • Year 3: $50m recovered → capex fully paid off

From then on, more of the revenue flows directly as profit gas.

Opex is treated the same way — recoverable under the 50% annual ceiling — which means operating costs are also reimbursed before the profit split.

๐Ÿ‘‰ This is why cost recovery actually improves early cash flows to contractors and ensures long-term netbacks are higher than raw PSA splits suggest.


4. The True Prize — Full Field Development

Everything so far is based only on ~0.4 Tcf net recoverable to Aminex. But the Ruvuma Basin has an estimated 16+ Tcf unrisked potential.

If proved up during full-field development (FFD):

  • Aminex’s 25% stake = ~4 Tcf net

  • That’s 10× larger than today’s discovered gas

  • On the same multiples, the per-share potential could be 30p–47p turning into 300p–470p

And there’s more:

  • Condensate uplift is expected to add ~15% additional value to gas sales.

  • Oil shows at NT-2 strongly hint at a deeper Jurassic oil play, which could be targeted in later phases of development.

Long-term holders therefore anticipate not just steady gas monetisation, but a basin-scale growth story with multiple revenue streams.


5. Investor Takeaway

  • Current Recoverables: Already justify upside against today’s 1.95p share price.

  • PSA Economics + Cost Recovery: Show Aminex can recoup capex/opex and still achieve strong netbacks.

  • Full Field Potential: 16+ Tcf basin, condensate uplift, and possible oil add layers of transformational upside.


๐Ÿ“Œ Closing Line for Investors:
“Even using conservative PSA terms, Aminex’s share of Ntorya already implies material upside. With cost recovery mechanisms improving early cash flow, condensate and oil adding extra value, and the 16+ Tcf basin potential still to be proved, the long-term case for Aminex remains one of scale and strategic importance.”

Check in tomorrow when we do the sums based on the full potential of 16+ Tcf